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March, 2019


snowman19
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

2016 was the lone example of record warmth in March since 2013. That was the only time that Newark reached 80 degrees during the previous 6 Marches. But Newark reached 80 degrees for the first time last February. The 68 the first week of this February was 1 degree of the week 1 record of 69 degrees. The 74 in February 2017 was the 3rd highest for the month of February.

Ah, I had forgotten about March 2013-2015. I couldn't remember what they were like...thanks for the time series. Is it unusual for Newark to not reach 80 in March? I'm guessing it happened a few times in the late 90s. 

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16 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I doubt it will switch to below average. late March will probably overperform temperature wise. 

You don't know that. The first 10 days have been well below normal, the next 7 days should be slightly above normal except for Friday which could be well above normal in the 60's. It then looks like temps will drop below normal after the 18th thru the 25th. 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like clouds and scattered showers may limit the high temperature potential later this week. We had full sun that  maximized our early February warm up. Overperforming February warm ups and underperforming ones in March has  been a common theme recently.

They did today. Only reached the low 40s, ten degrees below forecast. 

I think we'll see a lot of these kinds of days March-May. Canada is cold with well AN snows and highs pressing from our NE have been a common occurrence. 

SSTs to our E/NE are near to BN as well. 

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30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what a cold first 10 days of March!!!

About the only part of their post that is accurate. Using the 00z EPS, I'm calculating average temps at NYC are ~1.5F below normal today through the 19th. There are more below normal than above normal days in the forecast.

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12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

They did today. Only reached the low 40s, ten degrees below forecast. 

I think we'll see a lot of these kinds of days March-May. Canada is cold with well AN snows and highs pressing from our NE have been a common occurrence. 

SSTs to our E/NE are near to BN as well. 

It was the first time since 2001 that Newark didn’t reach 50 degrees between March 1st and 10th. Nearly the opposite of the first 10 days of February when Newark had the 2nd highest temperature on record. An impressive  68 high for this period in February vs only 49 in March.

Coldest March 1-10 maximum temperatures at Newark

1 1960-03-10 36 0
2 1978-03-10 42 0
- 1940-03-10 42 0
4 1969-03-10 44 0
- 1952-03-10 44 0
- 1931-03-10 44 0
7 1984-03-10 45 0
- 1957-03-10 45 0
9 1989-03-10 46 0
10 1947-03-10 47 0
11 2019-03-10 49 0
- 2001-03-10 49 0

Warmest February 1-10 maximum temperature at Newark

1 2008-02-10 69 0
- 1991-02-10 69 0
3 2019-02-10 68 0
- 1989-02-10 68 0
5 2017-02-10 65 0
6 2012-02-10 64 0
7 2006-02-10 63 0
- 1990-02-10 63 0
- 1965-02-10 63 0
10 1988-02-10 62 0
- 1983-02-10 62 0
- 1973-02-10 62 0
- 1933-02-10 62 0
14 2001-02-10 61 0
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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

FYI, the Central Park normal temperature for the 3/1-19 period is 40.6°, making the 3/19 anomaly 2.3° below normal.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycmar.pdf

I use weighted averages.     (10/18)(-7) +(8/18)(+5) = -1.7.   Problem is GFSx does not match your normals.

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2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I use weighted averages.     (10/18)(-7) +(8/18)(+5) = -1.7.   Problem is GFSx does not match your normals.

Thanks. I'm not sure why there is somewhat of a difference between the normals shown by NWS-Upton and the MOS. I suspect the MOS is using a slightly different base and/or unsmoothed numbers.

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Models are really backing off on the colder pattern for the week of March 17th. Looks like just a return to cooler near normal temps, which means highs near 50. That cold/snowy first week of March was probably out last wintry week. Spring looks to settle in nicely, unlike like last year.

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14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Models are really backing off on the colder pattern for the week of March 17th. Looks like just a return to cooler near normal temps, which means highs near 50. That cold/snowy first week of March was probably out last wintry week. Spring looks to settle in nicely, unlike like last year.

yep, might be finished which is fine with me especially after Saturday's today's warmth-feels great.   Funny the models end with what they did all winter-show a wintry cold pattern only to back off at the end....

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18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep, might be finished which is fine with me especially after Saturday's today's warmth-feels great.   Funny the models end with what they did all winter-show a wintry cold pattern only to back off at the end....

Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm 

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm 

March overall is a gamble for snow after the 1st 10 days or so.  Last March we lucked out with an incredible NAO block and good cold air.    (An example of a SSW that worked for us-unlike this year)

Locally we got lucky with a decent pattern for snow 2/10-3/3 and somehow mananged to get to average snow after a horrid Dec/Jan and part of Feb....  Saw a few snow events and some snow on snow with airmasses just cold enough to support snow.  A truly forgetable winter for sure overall and an analog hopefully we don't see show up ever again.

-

in the meantime, let's torch!!!!

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22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm 

The cold pattern for the first week of March did materialize and we got 2 snowstorms out of it, which you ended up being wrong about. That week salvaged the winter for me. Instead of way below normal snowfall, that week brought us up to only slightly below normal snowfall for the winter. It was nice to have snow stay on the ground for an entire week too, which doesn't happen very often that late in the season.

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13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The cold pattern for the first week of March did materialize and we got 2 snowstorms out of it, which you ended up being wrong about. That week salvaged the winter for me. Instead of way below normal snowfall, that week brought us up to only slightly below normal snowfall for the winter. It was nice to have snow stay on the ground for an entire week too, which doesn't happen very often that late in the season.

yeah the post storm arctic airmass turned it into cement.   The parking lot piles here will be around for some time....

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36 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

March overall is a gamble for snow after the 1st 10 days or so.  Last March we lucked out with an incredible NAO block and good cold air.    (An example of a SSW that worked for us-unlike this year)

Locally we got lucky with a decent pattern for snow 2/10-3/3 and somehow mananged to get to average snow after a horrid Dec/Jan and part of Feb....  Saw a few snow events and some snow on snow with airmasses just cold enough to support snow.  A truly forgetable winter for sure overall and an analog hopefully we don't see show up ever again.

-

in the meantime, let's torch!!!!

Whats amazing is we are approx. Only 8 inches from normal with all that happened. Imagine we had a fluke storm that got us to average.

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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm 

Early to mid March would be like early to mid October sun angle... this is the week where we finally get to 12 hours of light and 12 hours of dark.  First day of spring is March 20 and first day of autumn is September 23rd. By definition those are the days with the same sun angle. 

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4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Early to mid March would be like early to mid October sun angle... this is the week where we finally get to 12 hours of light and 12 hours of dark.  First day of spring is March 20 and first day of autumn is September 23rd. By definition those are the days with the same sun angle. 

The October sun angle was the end of February 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The October sun angle was the end of February 

Today's sun arc is equivalent to October 2nd in NYC. That's really easy to verify... not sure why the need to exaggerate.

I mean, it doesn't really matter that much to the substance of your point. It's a warm sun this time of year. Just not anywhere close to August.

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