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March, 2019


snowman19
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2 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

After having lows near the single digits this past week 50s will sure feel like a torch.  Next Friday could push 60.

It will feel like a torch, yes.  But "torch" is a term that is relative to averages, and by mid-march, 50's ain't cutting it.

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50 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs looks good for late March. 

12z GFS actually shows a warm pattern starting in late March near the end of its run, around the 23rd. But before then it shows a cold pattern from around the 17th to 22nd. We'll see if we can get any snow out of the cold pattern in the latter part of mid March and early part of late March. I do hope it warms up in very late March in time for the start of the growing season like 12z GFS hints at.

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A weak system is bringing light snow to portions of Maryland and Virginia. Dulles International Airport has picked up 0.6" snow. Some portions of Virginia have received 1"-2" snow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -0.77 today. It has been negative for 30 out of the last 31 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.202. The AO has now been positive for 29 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days.

On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.643 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the March 6-adjusted figure of 2.648. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days.

A storm moving through the Great Lakes region could bring a brief period of wintry precipitation Saturday night or Sunday morning to parts of the region before any precipitation ends as rain. Parts of central and upstate New York into northern New England could pick up moderate accumulations of snow.

Afterward, readings could remain warmer than normal for at least 7-10 days, limiting opportunities for snowfall. The warmth could peak around mid-month with the potential for readings in the 60s extending as far north as southern New England.

Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month. Currently, the GEFS is more impressed with the potential return of colder weather than the EPS.

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18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A weak system is bringing light snow to portions of Maryland and Virginia. Dulles International Airport has picked up 0.6" snow. Some portions of Virginia have received 1"-2" snow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -0.77 today. It has been negative for 30 out of the last 31 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.202. The AO has now been positive for 29 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days.

On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.643 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the March 6-adjusted figure of 2.648. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days.

A storm moving through the Great Lakes region could bring a brief period of wintry precipitation Saturday night or Sunday morning to parts of the region before any precipitation ends as rain. Parts of central and upstate New York into northern New England could pick up moderate accumulations of snow.

Afterward, readings could remain warmer than normal for at least 7-10 days, limiting opportunities for snowfall. The warmth could peak around mid-month with the potential for readings in the 60s extending as far north as southern New England.

Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month. Currently, the GEFS is more impressed with the potential return of colder weather than the EPS.

I think we'll do okay up in northeastern Pa. In regards to late March luckily the GEFS has done much better than the eps!

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Anthony Masiello

"The sequence of events next week across the Pacific is reminiscent of the 1980s and 1990s. There's an extratropical/tropical interaction for exciting the low-frequency signal's forcing, producing a phase 8-like response in the PNA sector"

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Anthony Masiello

"The sequence of events next week across the Pacific is reminiscent of the 1980s and 1990s. There's an extratropical/tropical interaction for exciting the low-frequency signal's forcing, producing a phase 8-like response in the PNA sector"

Already posted

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Anthony Masiello

"The sequence of events next week across the Pacific is reminiscent of the 1980s and 1990s. There's an extratropical/tropical interaction for exciting the low-frequency signal's forcing, producing a phase 8-like response in the PNA sector"

Yep and the 1980’s and 1990’s worked out so well for us, worst 2 decades in history lmaooo

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a one, maybe two day torch followed by a massive PNA and east coast trough. 

Huge storm potential March 18-25 period.

End of March, March “cold”, strongly positive NAO, best of luck getting an east coast snowstorm. That’s going to be a really good trick

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Just now, snowman19 said:

You’ve been calling for major snowstorms and severe cold non stop since 11/15. This is month number 5 in a row. The stats speak for themselves

You have to admit you kept saying we wouldn't get any snowstorms out of the week long cold pattern in early March. We ended up getting 2 snowstorms. I got about 11 inches between the 2 storms.

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