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March, 2019


snowman19
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Next 8 days averaging near 40degs., or just about Normal.

19.7* here at 5am.   19.9* here at 6am.  21.2* here at 7am.  24.9* by 9am.

The only period that might produce any snow around here is now 3/17-3/23.

Gotta love the EURO/GEFS going nearly snowless for their prediction periods now---when they should have looked this way to be accurate, all winter.  EURO had T problems too.   Like the ridiculous GFS string of 100 to 107 degree days last summer, the EURO insisted on record T's in the current cold spell.

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10 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I wonder if we can manage to maintain the streak of wintry events on or near the 20th.

So far the 2010’s are 6 for 9 on measurable snow between 3-14 and 3-24. The only 3 years that missed were 2014, 2012, and 2010. But 2014 and 2010 still had the storm signal with over 1.00” of liquid around the area. 

NYC

3-21-18....8.4”

3-14-17....7.6”

3-21-16....0.5”

3-20-15.....4.5”

3-19-14.....0.92

3-18-13....3.0”

3-24-11....1.0”

3-22-10.....1.45

 

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This morning was the coldest March morning across much of the region since March 2017 and, in a few locations, March 2015. Select minimum temperatures:

Albany: 4° (coldest March temperature since March 6, 2015 0°)
Allentown: 5° (coldest march temperature since March 7, 2015 0°)
Atlantic City: 12° (coldest March temperature since March 7, 2015 8°)
Binghamton: 3° (coldest March temperature since March 5, 2017 2°)
Bridgeport: 13° (coldest March temperature since March 5, 2017 13°)
Danbury: 6° (coldest March temperature since March 1, 2015 6°)
Islip: 16° (coldest March temperature since March 13, 2017 13°)
New Haven: 16° (coldest March temperature since March 12, 2017 13°)
New York City-JFK: 18° (coldest March temperature since March 11, 2017 18°)
New York City-LGA: 19° (coldest March temperature since March 6, 2019 19°)
New York City-NYC: 18° (coldest March temperature since March 11, 2017 17°)
Newark: 15° (coldest March temperature since March 5, 2017 14°)
Philadelphia: 19° (coldest March temperature since March 5, 2017 15°)
Poughkeepsie: 10° (coldest March temperature since March 23, 2017 9°)
Scanton: 7° (coldest March temperature since March 6, 2015 4°)
Westhampton: 10° (coldest March temperature since March 13, 2017 8°)
White Plains: 13° (coldest March temperature since March 5, 2017 11°)

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First time since the 1940’s that NYC had 13 March days with a high of 32 or lower in only 6 years. We could add another today.

2019 2  
2018 0  
2017 5  
2016 0  
2015 2  
2014 4  

 

1944 3  
1943 4  
1942 0  
1941 2  
1940 3  
1939 1  

 

 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The Euro MJO forecast would be a first if it verified. No cases of the MJO going from 1 to 4 and then back to 1 again during March. So any moderation in temperatures looks to last about a week before turning colder again later in March. Looks like a lagged strong MJO 4 +PNA response for later March.

 

AF1134BD-F342-4D4E-9584-AA2CEA31F977.gif.3bf44243c345bfadbaf5a5c35f361437.gif

32428322-DC2C-4E70-8E12-22DE248E43D9.png.c1f998235eae97b5be5c97c21bf23364.png

 

Looks as if it could get quite warm late next week before the colder temps come back in. Maybe high temps near 60 thursday and friday.

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We cannot rely on the EURO since it has become a 'space cadet model' this winter.     It developed the bad habit of showing major snow events as 'one run specials'.     Its T's were not on target as I have spoken about.     It apparently could not handle the non-linking of the upper atmosphere with the weak Nino zones any better than the other models.

Since gaining a reputation by getting Hurricane Sandy's left-hand turn to the coast right, 6 hours before other models, it needs to hire an agent to help win back its shine.    Its escutcheon plate is severely scratched and its MJO prediction mentioned above can not be trusted.

The big cities may have to deal with cold for the last two weeks of the month, but snow is statistically just a leftover echo of winter there.

Friday night is just a TRACE, since the disorganized mish-mash passes south of the City with almost no precipitation now.

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The temperature fell to 18° this morning in New York City. That was the City's coldest March temperature since March 11, 2017 when the temperature fell to 17°. Some of the City's distant suburbs reported single-digit readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -7.85 today. It has been negative for 29 out of the last 30 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.674. The AO has now been positive for 28 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days.

On March 6, the MJO moved into Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.643 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the March 5-adjusted figure of 2.559. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days.

After perhaps a period of light snow or flurries late tomorrow or tomorrow night, temperatures will very likely warm up during the coming weekend. However, a storm could bring a brief period of wintry precipitation Saturday night or Sunday morning to parts of the region before any precipitation ends as rain.

Afterward, readings could remain warmer than normal for at least 7-10 days, limiting opportunities for snowfall. The warmth could peak around mid-month. Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature fell to 18° this morning in New York City. That was the City's coldest March temperature since March 11, 2017 when the temperature fell to 17°. Some of the City's distant suburbs reported single-digit readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -7.85 today. It has been negative for 29 out of the last 30 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.674. The AO has now been positive for 28 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days.

On March 6, the MJO moved into Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.643 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the March 5-adjusted figure of 2.559. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days.

After perhaps a period of light snow or flurries late tomorrow or tomorrow night, temperatures will very likely warm up during the coming weekend. However, a storm could bring a brief period of wintry precipitation Saturday night or Sunday morning to parts of the region before any precipitation ends as rain.

Afterward, readings could remain warmer than normal for at least 7-10 days, limiting opportunities for snowfall. The warmth could peak around mid-month. Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month.

Nice write up as always, Don. Do you think we have a window for a more significant snowstorm around March 20? Models are still showing the potential on some runs. 

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