snowman19 Posted February 26, 2019 Author Share Posted February 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: It isn’t rain. Check the model You’re not getting 1-3” of snow Saturday but I wish you Good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 Stop with the absolutes,,its days away!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 If you believe the EPS our best shot IS Sunday. If you believe the pattern tendencies this year though then Sunday’s would be rain and the next event would be our biggest snow of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 I know sunday night into monday is the much bigger potential, but 18z NAM has a 2 inch snowfall for NYC friday morning which ramps up to 4 inches for southern NJ. The same system that GGEM was showing as a 4 to 6 inch snowstorm for us a couple days ago. Still have to keep an eye on it according to NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 26, 2019 Share Posted February 26, 2019 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: You’re not getting 1-3” of snow Saturday but I wish you Good luck Even if this were true, 1-3" is weak and I'm sick of these pathetic events. It might as well be rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Even if this were true, 1-3" is weak and I'm sick of these pathetic events. It might as well be rain. Well we get about 2 when a little more is expected, so going by that an expected 1-3 should mean a few snow showers. If that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Even if this were true, 1-3" is weak and I'm sick of these pathetic events. It might as well be rain. You know you arent being held hostage here right? Just making sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 So all over the place with all these different threats but the NAM says don't give up on the Friday storm just yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Nam still has the follow up wave for Friday. 1-3 inch deal for the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 Here is the NAM total snowfall for tomorrow night/Thursday morning and the snow showers on Friday, all combined: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019022700&fh=84 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam still has the follow up wave for Friday. 1-3 inch deal for the coast. Friday is all over the place right now. Euro wants no part of it but wants something significant Saturday night into Sunday which almost no other model has 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Friday is all over the place right now. Euro wants no part of it but wants something significant Saturday night into Sunday which almost no other model has Yea seems to still be a ton of uncertainty all around with all these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 NAM does look very interesting for thursday night into friday morning. It gets 4 to 5 inches of snow up to Monmouth and Ocean Counties, and 3 almost up to NYC. Maybe GGEM was onto something when it kept showing this for a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: NAM does look very interesting for thursday night into friday morning. It gets 4 to 5 inches of snow up to Monmouth and Ocean Counties, and 3 almost up to NYC. Maybe GGEM was onto something when it kept showing this for a couple days. The RGEM at 48 looks more like the Euro and would likely be way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I don't trust any model right now on anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Canadian is a big snowstorm for monday 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 28 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said: Canadian is a big snowstorm for monday For well to the northwest. This run is actually mostly rain for NYC. Models continue to be all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Fv3 is back on for our best event of the year for Monday. Not in fantasy range range anymore but can't seem to get any consensus. Canadian and Euro are too warm for NYC, shocker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Fv3 is back on for our best event of the year for Monday. Not in fantasy range range anymore but can't seem to get any consensus. Canadian and Euro are too warm for NYC, shocker. Regular gfs also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Regular gfs also Just a 1-3" scraper, but close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Just a 1-3" scraper, but close. I just don’t get how these models suck so much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Just a 1-3" scraper, but close. Eps is similiar to the Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Now that we are entering March, anything that falls next week won't be around long with that stronger March sun. Ready for Spring.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 Who cares what the FV3 shows? Confirmed worst model out there. So incredibly horrible that NWS won’t even implement due to all the complaints about its abysmal performance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 It's true their delaying it's implementation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range. A colder March overall wouldn't shock me, that's been the theme lately. I think too many were quick to pull the torch trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A colder March overall wouldn't shock me, that's been the theme lately. I think too many were quick to pull the torch trigger. The MJO never missed an opportunity to make a strong push into 5-6 over the winter. But now that we are headed into March, models want to weaken it around phase 4. For some reason, we saw similar MJO weakening near phase 4 over the last 2 Marches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Any kind of big spring warmup is going to get delayed if the MJO weakens before getting to the warmer 5-6 phases for March. This would mean a colder start to March would transition to closer to normal. But nothing too extreme in the warmth department for this time of year. Back doors could become an issue if the models are correct about all the high pressure building in SE Canada longer range. I hope this is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Eps is similiar to the Gfs eps 6z is much better for monday. Perfect benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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