March, 2019

[weatherpruf]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We really need to change "average" to "average range" because no one number can be considered an average.  Same goes for temperature.  For me, 20-30" is considered an average range for snowfall. 

 

You could go with the mode; what is the most common snow amount for winter, or what is the most common amount for a snow event?

[JerseyWx]

49 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

You could go with the mode; what is the most common snow amount for winter, or what is the most common amount for a snow event?

You could do that, but then that fails to take into consideration smaller/larger events.  Plus, since we measure to the tenth, the mode may not capture that many storms (won't be very representative).

The best bet is to just stick with one average, and if you feel the data is skewed, report the standard deviation so we know the average distance of cases from the mean.  If you want to get fancy, and your data is in SPSS, you can also report the skewness value to see if some storms are biasing the data set. 

[Cfa]

Snow weenies, here’s your record tying snowfall lol.

This is something I’d noticed and thought was strange, however I didn’t suspect that it was this rare.

[snowman19]

The models have all unanimously dropped the Friday night/Saturday minor event a couple of them had been showing. Nothing showing even so much as a half inch of snow now 

[uncle W]

with the ao forecast to go negative after mid month is a sign we could get one last blast of snow near the first day of spring...the best ending to any winter was in 1956...there was a 6-7" snowstorm on the 16th...a 12-14" snowstorm on the 18th-19th...temperatures were in the low 20's with winds and drifting during the second storm...the first one had thunder and lighting...some other good endings were...1958 had a foot of wet snow on the 20th-21st...1964 had 5" of wet snow on the 22nd...1967 had 9" of snow on the 22nd...1970 had 4" on the 29th...that one was on Easter Sunday and started as rain...1974 had 3-4" of wet snow on the 29th...10" in the Poconos...1984 had a major noreaster with 4" of slush on the 29th...20" in the Poconos...1992 had a 6" storm on the 19th and a 4" storm on the 22nd...1996 had a 4" storm on the 29th...1998 had 5" on the 22nd...2013 had 3" on the 18th...2015 had 4.5" on the 20th...2018 had 8-12" on the 22nd...

[NEG NAO]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models have all unanimously dropped the Friday night/Saturday minor event a couple of them had been showing. Nothing showing even so much as a half inch of snow now 

Wrong - The GFS - Para didn't drop it

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Wrong - The GFS - Para didn't drop it

Less than a half inch total for the metro area? Even at 10:1 ratios including sleet as a total? That’s dumping it lmfaooo

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Less than a half inch? At 10:1 ratios including sleet as a total? That’s dumping it lmfaooo

and I am sure you can calculate how much sleet will fall  point being it shows it will be snowing - it didn't drop it

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

You could go with the mode; what is the most common snow amount for winter, or what is the most common amount for a snow event?

While I understand using the last 20 years for the average, I don't agree.  My argument is that a record cold temperature utilizes all the years, while the average temperature only encompasses the past 20 years.  Another definition difficult to swallow is the definition of a blizzard.  At some point, "they" dropped the temperature condition.  "They" also point out that it doesn't have to be snowing to have blizzard conditions.  I totally disagree.  A blizzard should have snowfall rates in the definition.  Living in New Jersey, I realize I never had to put up with sustained blowing and drifting snow like in the upper Midwest.  Those conditions should have a whole term denoted onto itself.

 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and I am sure you can calculate how much sleet will fall  point being it shows it will be snowing - it didn't drop it

It had been showing 2 inches. It dropped it, no model has so much as a half inch of snow now. Even the most liberal of all maps shows less than a half inch

[Brian5671]

The Para GFS is God awful-if that's all that's showing it, it's over.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The Para GFS is God awful-if that's all that's showing it, it's over.

The regular GFS is even worse - that's why they are trying to replace it...…...actually most models have their own flaws and none of them is anywhere near perfect ……..

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It had been showing 2 inches. It dropped it, no model has so much as a half inch of snow now. Even the most liberal of all maps shows less than a half inch

I don't think anyone cares that much about a little light snow for friday. We got our 2 early March snowstorms, which you were wrong about BTW. Remember a couple weeks ago I kept saying with 2 weeks of consistent cold air in late Feb/early March, I couldn't understand why so many people were giving up on the winter. Odds were that the models would pick up on some threats as it got closer. I'm glad I was right and it worked out well for snow lovers.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Snow weenies, here’s your record tying snowfall lol.

This is something I’d noticed and thought was strange, however I didn’t suspect that it was this rare.

The 4 consecutive days of 1.0” or more was an even more impressive record for NYC. I didn’t realize that 4 days is the new record until I looked it up.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall >= 1.0 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2019-03-04
1	4	2019-03-04
2	3	2014-02-15
-	3	2011-01-27
-	3	1923-02-12
-	3	1920-02-06
-	3	1888-03-14
-	3	1873-12-28
8	2	2017-12-15
-	2	2017-01-07
-	2	2015-02-22

 

[weatherpruf]

25 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I don't think anyone cares that much about a little light snow for friday. We got our 2 early March snowstorms, which you were wrong about BTW. Remember a couple weeks ago I kept saying with 2 weeks of consistent cold air in late Feb/early March, I couldn't understand why so many people were giving up on the winter. Odds were that the models would pick up on some threats as it got closer. I'm glad I was right and it worked out well for snow lovers.

Take a bow. Sat and Sunday delivered for our area. Cold day today and the pack is still there. Took a hike with the dog in my winter gear and it felt great. So much better hiking in this then the haze of midsummer ( with ticks and mosquitos, not to mention poison ivy ). We had 10-11 inches in 2 days in this part of Middlesex Co, too bad Sat's mostly melted by Sunday. IMHO the winter was redeemed, even though we will come up short of seasonal average ( the Nov storm helped pad the numbers )

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Take a bow. Sat and Sunday delivered for our area. Cold day today and the pack is still there. Took a hike with the dog in my winter gear and it felt great. So much better hiking in this then the haze of midsummer ( with ticks and mosquitos, not to mention poison ivy ). We had 10-11 inches in 2 days in this part of Middlesex Co, too bad Sat's mostly melted by Sunday. IMHO the winter was redeemed, even though we will come up short of seasonal average ( the Nov storm helped pad the numbers )

don't be too quick to say we will come up short of seasonal averages - that is still to be determined as there are indications that after next weeks milder pattern - winter returns with below normal temps starting around the 17th -18th and also the chance of more snow events around here in the following week or 2 at least as the AO goes negative.

[weatherpruf]

28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

don't be too quick to say we will come up short of seasonal averages - that is still to be determined as there are indications that after next weeks milder pattern - winter returns with below normal temps starting around the 17th -18th and also the chance of more snow events around here in the following week or 2 at least as the AO goes negative.

Always a possibility and one that wouldn't surprise. I knew a principal in a Catholic school who knew the whether for every St. Patrick's Day for decades, and he could tell us which years it snowed around that date, as it was an important one in his life. Yeah, he was Irish.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

You could do that, but then that fails to take into consideration smaller/larger events.  Plus, since we measure to the tenth, the mode may not capture that many storms (won't be very representative).

The best bet is to just stick with one average, and if you feel the data is skewed, report the standard deviation so we know the average distance of cases from the mean.  If you want to get fancy, and your data is in SPSS, you can also report the skewness value to see if some storms are biasing the data set. 

All of that is true, we sometimes like the mode in social sciences, as the average is too expansive for the reasons you mention, and the median just tells you the midpoint. But news reporters like median and average, and often use them as if they are the same thing. But average is very useful if you throw out the outliers. Beyond that, I have to rely on the stats people because if I were very proficient in stats, I probably would be doing something else for a living!

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

don't be too quick to say we will come up short of seasonal averages - that is still to be determined as there are indications that after next weeks milder pattern - winter returns with below normal temps starting around the 17th -18th and also the chance of more snow events around here in the following week or 2 at least as the AO goes negative.

Agree...it's possible we get another moderate event or even two.  Hard to believe we have a shot at normal or even above normal snow after the Dec/Jan and first half of Feb debacle.

[donsutherland1]

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -4.36 today. It has been negative for 27 out of the last 28 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.083. The AO has now been positive for 25 consecutive days.

On March 4, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.526 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the March 3-adjusted figure of 2.385. The MJO will likely advance toward Phase 4 over the next 2-4 days. There is some uncertainty as to whether it will reach Phase 4 or head toward lower amplitudes. The seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes.

Following the recent snowstorm, a much colder than normal air mass now covers the East. Much colder than normal readings are likely to prevail for several more days.

Afterward, sustained warming could develop during the weekend of March 9-10. The warmer readings will likely limit opportunities for snowfall. The potential for widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s into southern New England and 50s in portions of the Middle Atlantic region near mid-month exists. Such a warm-up is particularly likely when the PDO is negative. The February PDO was -0.55.

The EPS has consistently been advertising just such a warm-up that would commence during the second week of March. At this time, the likelihood of such a warm-up is fairly high. However, some possibility exists for a return to cooler relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month.

Finally, since 1869, New York City has had 10 cases during the March 1-7 period when 6.0" or more snow fell and the average temperature was 32.0° or below. All 10 cases had additional measurable snowfall afterward, including 8 cases with measurable snowfall in April.

[uncle W]

the average March monthly average max is around 70...the average monthly minimum is around 18...we will see the average minimum soon and probably the average maximum later in the month...

[NEG NAO]

48 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the average March monthly average max is around 70...the average monthly minimum is around 18...we will see the average minimum soon and probably the average maximum later in the month...

I have my doubts about reaching 70 after mid month - if so it will be very brief - prior to a cold front as an example - the AO is going neg. after mid month and the PNA is going positive

[NycStormChaser]

We should keep an eye on Sunday. Could be some flash flooding issues in the area, especially across Eastern Long Island. At least it will be in the 40s. 

[weatherpruf]

58 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

We should keep an eye on Sunday. Could be some flash flooding issues in the area, especially across Eastern Long Island. At least it will be in the 40s. 

What is it with weekend rain in these parts?

[winterwx21]

0z GFS increased us to 1 inch of snow for friday. Need to see some other models come aboard to believe that it'll be a decent light snowfall like GFS has. More likely it will be just flurries/snow showers, but there's enough time for it to trend better.

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z GFS increased us to 1 inch of snow for friday. Need to see some other models come aboard to believe that it'll be a decent light snowfall like GFS has. More likely it will be just flurries/snow showers, but there's enough time for it to trend better.

You know it's a bad winter when we're tracking events that give us between 0.5" and 1" and our biggest storm was in November.

[winterwx21]

14 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You know it's a bad winter when we're tracking events that give us between 0.5" and 1" and our biggest storm was in November.

I felt that way about this winter too, but the 2 snowstorms we just had improved my opinion about this winter. 4.5" and 6" here. Not huge snowstorms, but nice moderate snowstorms and enough to pull us out of the well below average snowfall category. Early March saved this from being a terrible winter. We'll see if we can add a little more early March snow on friday before it warms up. Sometimes you can get a decent period of snow at the end of a cold pattern as the warmer air tries to work in. That doesn't appear likely right now, but again there's enough time for it to trend better.

[SnoSki14]

11 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Take a bow. Sat and Sunday delivered for our area. Cold day today and the pack is still there. Took a hike with the dog in my winter gear and it felt great. So much better hiking in this then the haze of midsummer ( with ticks and mosquitos, not to mention poison ivy ). We had 10-11 inches in 2 days in this part of Middlesex Co, too bad Sat's mostly melted by Sunday. IMHO the winter was redeemed, even though we will come up short of seasonal average ( the Nov storm helped pad the numbers )

It's still a D winter, you can't ignore the debacle that was actually met winter (D-F). The only exciting thing that happened in those months was a snow squall and some really cold, near zero, weather. 

IMO this month would have to deliver another warning level event to raise it to a C/C- season. 

[wdrag]

No obs thread for this but the HRRR had snow showers overnight somewhat advertised yesterday at 06z/5...influx of colder air aloft-500mb trough, Result Wantage NJ 8s High Point waking up to a dusting. 0.2" in snow showers late last evening (~11P) makes 5 consecutive days of measurable snow here. March 10.8. Season 34.9. It is pretty up here...no grass blades showing yet. Yea! (no mowing for a couple of 3 weeks I hope)

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 37degs., or about 3degs. BN.

19.8* here at 6am.  19.4* here at 7am.