March, 2019

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was in the 40s the day before the 93 blizzard and mid 30s when the snow started. Similar to last night.

the airmass associated with that blizzard was a historic airmass though, you had historic snowfall totals in the deep south because of how far the cold air penetrated.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

NYC only 1.6" below average on the season. Although that's an antiquated average.

We really need to change "average" to "average range" because no one number can be considered an average.  Same goes for temperature.  For me, 20-30" is considered an average range for snowfall. 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the airmass associated with that blizzard was a historic airmass though, you had historic snowfall totals in the deep south because of how far the cold air penetrated.

Yeah no question

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

We really need to change "average" to "average range" because no one number can be considered an average.  Same goes for temperature.  For me, 20-30" is considered an average range for snowfall. 

 

But the very point of the mathematical mean is to arrive at one number that represents a larger date set.  An average is always supposed to be one number.  That said, the numbers we use to compute that average can shift over time, which is why the 1971-2000 data set became 1981-2010.

[ForestHillWx]

Deep, deep winter out there. Doesn't feel like Morch. 

Currently 19/10..

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

But the very point of the mathematical mean is to arrive at one number that represents a larger date set.  An average is always supposed to be one number.  That said, the numbers we use to compute that average can shift over time, which is why the 1971-2000 data set became 1981-2010.

I wonder if using a standard deviation of +/- 1 would serve us better to define an average range.

 

For temps, I see anything as  within +/- 1.0 degree of average as the average range.  

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Deep, deep winter out there. Doesn't feel like Morch. 

Currently 19/10..

Interesting thing mentioned by Lee Goldberg tonight.  It was snowing near the top of the Empire State Building but the air is so dry it was melting on the way down!  Virga snowstorm that was real snow at 1,000 feet!

[JerseyWx]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if using a standard deviation of +/- 1 would serve us better to define an average range.

 

For temps, I see anything as  within +/- 1.0 degree of average as the average range.  

I definitely think reporting SD is a good idea, since it helps us see how things stack up against the mean (lot of variability or not).

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We really need to change "average" to "average range" because no one number can be considered an average.  Same goes for temperature.  For me, 20-30" is considered an average range for snowfall. 

 

It's really not though, 25-35 for NYC would be a better average to use historically if you're going to use a 10 inch range for average.

By almost any measure other than the deflated averages used now for the 1981-2010 period (which will change in 22 months) the NYC average snowfall is about 29 inches. The 1981-2010 period contains two of the three lowest 10 year periods in recorded history, 1981-1990 and 1991-2000, for snowfall. The other of course is 1971-1980 which is now not part of the equation and why the 30 year average went from 22.2 to 25.8 during the last revision in Jan 2011.

When 1981-1990 is dropped in Jan 2021 and 2011-2020 period is added, the average will most likely surpass 30 inches. Right now the Jan 1991 through March 2019 average is 30.6 inches which is much more in line with the 150 year average in NYC which is 28.9 inches.

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's really not though, 25-35 for NYC would be a better average to use historically if you're going to use a 10 inch range for average.

By almost any measure other than the deflated averages used now for the 1981-2010 period (which will change in 22 months) the NYC average snowfall is about 29 inches. The 1981-2010 period contains two of the three lowest 10 year periods in recorded history, 1981-1990 and 1991-2000, for snowfall. The other of course is 1971-1980 which is now not part of the equation and why the 30 year average went from 22.2 to 25.8 during the last revision in Jan 2011.

When 1981-1990 is dropped in Jan 2021 and 2011-2020 period is added, the average will most likely surpass 30 inches. Right now the Jan 1991 through March 2019 average is 30.6 inches which is much more in line with the 150 year average in NYC which is 28.9 inches.

Maybe it's just my bias because I grew up in the 80s, but I feel like there are more years in the 25-30 range than there are in the 30-35 range.  We can figure this out easily enough if we can find out what the two most frequent 5 inch ranges are for NYC snowfall, Would it be 20-25 inches and 25-30 inches or 25-30 inches and 30-25 inches?

For where I live in the southern part of the region (and I suspect where the majority of people live who live in NYC, live in southern Brooklyn and southern Queens), I suspect it's 20-25 inches and 25-30 inches.  JFK averages about 22 inches of snow a year.

Speaking of the 80s and 90s, RIP Luke Perry.  I used to watch him in 90210 (which is being rebooted with many of the same people) and now was watching him in Riverdale.

 

[Juliancolton]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

For temps, I see anything as  within +/- 1.0 degree of average as the average range.  

For monthly/seasonal timescales, you mean?

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why cant we get a storm like this in the middle of an arctic airmass like we're going to get in the middle of the week?  What a waste of record breaking single digit air.....

I compare it to Yankees hitting HR with no one on base in a blow out game while in close games with RISP they strike out, sounds familiar haha.

 

Even the 3/1-3/2 storm seemed to have a slightly better airmass. That was a very powdery snow.

This week looks cold with multiple days not reaching 32F...my forecast show 31/18, 28/18, 30/22. NWS did back off on some of the morning cold. But should be the coldest stretch by far until next winter, and particularly impressive for March. I'm still not sold on a March 1960/1967/1994/2015 due to the models showing a strong warming trend as the -EPO breaks down.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thats why it was a lot like 07-08

07-08 was more of a SWFE. Yesterday was a coastal. We also had much colder weather this winter than in 07-08, aside from the brutal March 08, which approached record lows where I lived in Poughkeepsie. But I agree that the storm track to the west was very similar to what we saw in 07-08; yesterday was the exception, not the rule. 

[nzucker]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe it's just my bias because I grew up in the 80s, but I feel like there are more years in the 25-30 range than there are in the 30-35 range.  We can figure this out easily enough if we can find out what the two most frequent 5 inch ranges are for NYC snowfall, Would it be 20-25 inches and 25-30 inches or 25-30 inches and 30-25 inches?

For where I live in the southern part of the region (and I suspect where the majority of people live who live in NYC, live in southern Brooklyn and southern Queens), I suspect it's 20-25 inches and 25-30 inches.  JFK averages about 22 inches of snow a year.

Speaking of the 80s and 90s, RIP Luke Perry.  I used to watch him in 90210 (which is being rebooted with many of the same people) and now was watching him in Riverdale.

 

I love Riverdale and have seen every simple episode. Lots of good intrigue and some very skilled young actors. Loved the reveal of the Black Hood as well as the ongoing uncertainty between Hermione and Hiram Lodge as to who is truly evil. We also don't know how closely the town's events parallel the game of Griffons&Gargoyles which the town is set on playing. Very sad to see Luke Perry gone. He was only 52 as well, and a main character in Riverdale. Don't know how his gruff, tough love manner will be replaced. 

[Rtd208]

Cold night out there.

Current temp 22 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

For monthly/seasonal timescales, you mean?

Yes, so like January finished with a -0.1 anomaly (based on 30 year climate data lol), that would be "near normal"

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I love Riverdale and have seen every simple episode. Lots of good intrigue and some very skilled young actors. Loved the reveal of the Black Hood as well as the ongoing uncertainty between Hermione and Hiram Lodge as to who is truly evil. We also don't know how closely the town's events parallel the game of Griffons&Gargoyles which the town is set on playing. Very sad to see Luke Perry gone. He was only 52 as well, and a main character in Riverdale. Don't now how his gruff, tough love manner will be replaced. 

Ironically he looked like he was going to be killed off earlier on the show but he pulled through.  What will they do with his character- will they find someone else to do it (unlikely) or will they actually kill the character off for real?  It will be really hard to do that because he was so integral to the show that not having him in some final scene will be an injustice.

They needed someone good like him to be a role model for Archie and to create some balance for all the dark characters on that show.

Luke Perry was outlandishly talented- he was basically the Cary Grant of this era (and was described as such.)

 

Griffons and Gargoyles sounds like Dungeons and Dragons to me lol

 

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Even the 3/1-3/2 storm seemed to have a slightly better airmass. That was a very powdery snow.

This week looks cold with multiple days not reaching 32F...my forecast show 31/18, 28/18, 30/22. NWS did back off on some of the morning cold. But should be the coldest stretch by far until next winter, and particularly impressive for March. I'm still not sold on a March 1960/1967/1994/2015 due to the models showing a strong warming trend as the -EPO breaks down.

07-08 was more of a SWFE. Yesterday was a coastal. We also had much colder weather this winter than in 07-08, aside from the brutal March 08, which approached record lows where I lived in Poughkeepsie. But I agree that the storm track to the west was very similar to what we saw in 07-08; yesterday was the exception, not the rule. 

So maybe it was more like 08-09?  That season started out with SWFE but ended up with a coastal in March.  07-08 is a good match for how snowy Caribou has been though.  08-09 was cold but had more days of snowcover.  January that year was actually pretty good, numerous small snowfalls that actually stuck around lol.

I did like the 3/1-3/2 storm more, plus with that storm it was snowing well into the morning!

Think we have another shot at snow at the end of the week?

We could have a very rare single digit March low this week- when was the last time that happened?

 

Speaking of 1994, didn't we have a dry arctic airmass come down in the first week of April that year?  I remember bright sunny skies with temps staying in the 30s and lows in the low 20s lol.  Might have been April 8, 1994 or somewhere around there.  If we had had a storm that day it would have been a big snow.

edit- I think that might have been April 1995 not 1994!

 

 

[nzucker]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So maybe it was more like 08-09?  That season started out with SWFE but ended up with a coastal in March.  07-08 is a good match for how snowy Caribou has been though.  08-09 was cold but had more days of snowcover.  January that year was actually pretty good, numerous small snowfalls that actually stuck around lol.

I did like the 3/1-3/2 storm more, plus with that storm it was snowing well into the morning!

Think we have another shot at snow at the end of the week?

We could have a very rare single digit March low this week- when was the last time that happened?

 

Speaking of 1994, didn't we have a dry arctic airmass come down in the first week of April that year?  I remember bright sunny skies with temps staying in the 30s and lows in the low 20s lol.  Might have been April 8, 1994 or somewhere around there.  If we had had a storm that day it would have been a big snow.

edit- I think that might have been April 1995 not 1994!

 

 

08-09 was a pretty good winter in Dobbs Ferry....8" on 12/19, 6.5" on 1/26, and 10" on 3/1 were the major events. Last accumulation was 1" on 3/20. February was largely a dud like this winter, except for one 3" event on 2/3 I believe. I left for Chile so I missed the 3/1 event. Very cold January that year....most stations were -3F to -4F.

Possible some light snow on Friday before the transition begins to a milder pattern. If that goes for like 2 weeks, it'll be around 3/25 that the next trough approaches. Pretty late, but not totally impossible to see another light to moderate snowfall, considering we had 6" on 4/2 last year. 

Not sure about single digits...NWS seems to be backing off on lows and has us mostly around 20F.

April 2013 also had a cold, dry stretch with radiational cooling nights that brought us into the 20s. As did April 2016 and, of course, last year w/ the 4/2 snow and a missed threat on 4/9. Warmth didn't arrive until the mini heat wave in May as I recall running the heat quite deep into April. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, nzucker said:

08-09 was a pretty good winter in Dobbs Ferry....8" on 12/19, 6.5" on 1/26, and 10" on 3/1 were the major events. Last accumulation was 1" on 3/20. February was largely a dud like this winter, except for one 3" event on 2/3 I believe. I left for Chile so I missed the 3/1 event. Very cold January that year....most stations were -3F to -4F.

Possible some light snow on Friday before the transition begins to a milder pattern. If that goes for like 2 weeks, it'll be around 3/25 that the next trough approaches. Pretty late, but not totally impossible to see another light to moderate snowfall, considering we had 6" on 4/2 last year. 

Not sure about single digits...NWS seems to be backing off on lows and has us mostly around 20F.

April 2013 also had a cold, dry stretch with radiational cooling nights that brought us into the 20s. As did April 2016 and, of course, last year w/ the 4/2 snow and a missed threat on 4/9. Warmth didn't arrive until the mini heat wave in May as I recall running the heat quite deep into April. 

in February 2009 we had a Norlun trough set up south of us that dumped like a foot of snow on Philly and Delaware lol.  We got about 4 inches here (but JFK somehow undermeasured it at like 0.5 inch like they did to another event in December even though we had snow plows out during the storm!)

Yes didn't we just miss out on a storm in April 2016?  It was cold and dry and near freezing even during the day!  And in April 2014 we had an inch of snow on April 15!

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 36degs., or 3degs. BN.

23.9* here at 6am.

[Rtd208]

Temp down to 20 here now. 

[ForestHillWx]

13/-4...don't know how accurate the DP is... cold this morning. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Down to +7.9° 

[bluewave]

The 5th snowiest first week of March on record for NYC. Only the 6th time that NYC reached 10” or more of snow for the first week of March.

 

1	1914-03-07	17.8	0
2	1960-03-07	14.8	0
3	2015-03-07	14.1	0
4	1916-03-07	10.8	0
5	2019-03-07	10.4	3
6	1896-03-07	10.0	0

 

 

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

in February 2009 we had a Norlun trough set up south of us that dumped like a foot of snow on Philly and Delaware lol.  We got about 4 inches here (but JFK somehow undermeasured it at like 0.5 inch like they did to another event in December even though we had snow plows out during the storm!)

Yes didn't we just miss out on a storm in April 2016?  It was cold and dry and near freezing even during the day!  And in April 2014 we had an inch of snow on April 15!

 

 

[Rtd208]

Actually made it down to 19 here.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if using a standard deviation of +/- 1 would serve us better to define an average range.

 

For temps, I see anything as  within +/- 1.0 degree of average as the average range.  

The standard deviation adds value. However, seasonal snowfall can fluctuate significantly. The standard deviation for the current base period is almost 18". If one took a half-standard deviation, the values would be 18"-36". During 2000-01 through 2017-18,  5/18 (28%) years fell within that range and 11/18 (61%) seasons fell within one standard deviation of the current mean. That's not bad. In a normal distribution, approximately 31% values lie within one-half standard deviation and 62% lie within one standard deviation.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure the general public would have much comprehension of, let's say, a 9"-45" range as "normal" seasonal snowfall. For many, a fixed number (the mean) is a more comfortable concept than one that involves variability.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

in February 2009 we had a Norlun trough set up south of us that dumped like a foot of snow on Philly and Delaware lol.  We got about 4 inches here (but JFK somehow undermeasured it at like 0.5 inch like they did to another event in December even though we had snow plows out during the storm!)

Yes didn't we just miss out on a storm in April 2016?  It was cold and dry and near freezing even during the day!  And in April 2014 we had an inch of snow on April 15!

 

Still to this day, with a few exceptions recently that they have corrected after the fact,  I don't understand how the NWS lets under measurements like that stand.

It would be nice if starting from the blizzard of 1888 they would correct the obvious ones and move forward through the years. A dream I know, it will never happen.

[Byrdhousebv]

T 28, DP 7, bright sun filtering through tree branches, patches of snow in shaded areas....beautiful morning in eastern Monmouth Co..

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Still to this day, with a few exceptions recently that they have corrected after the fact,  I don't understand how the NWS lets under measurements like that stand.

It would be nice if starting from the blizzard of 1888 they would correct the obvious ones and move forward through the years. A dream I know, it will never happen.

A re-analysis effort similar to what is underway with tropical cyclones might be useful.