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March, 2019


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22 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With Officially 5.0 inches of snow in Central Park from last nights storm, NYC is now at 20.5 inches for the season which places this season 101st of the last 150 years.

NYC now needs only 17.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, to reach 30 inches per year. If no snow fell until then it would be 29.4. The current average since January 1991 is 30.6 inches. The 150 year average is now 28.9 inches.

March now has 10.4 inches for the month and is now the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years. Three of the last five March's have seen double digit snow amounts and 2017 at 9.7 inches just missed.

But still no double digit snowfalls.  The streak from 1993 (and 1960 before that) continues.

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On 3/2/2019 at 9:43 PM, BombsAway1288 said:

I'll take a stab at it.

Probably because when March rolls around there is a lot more warmer temps starting to enter the Southern US. In order to get an 18" snowstorm any time of the year you need a really strong, amped up/phasing situation. Or a really slow/almost stalling system so you get the proper QPF. In March, if you have that, right on the coastal plain is going to get warmer temps than Dec, Jan, and Feb more likely than not.

The majority of coastals in March come with marginal temps compared to the temps in met winter months and that just doesn't accumulate very good in the City especially with a stronger sun angle. Plus these coastals need to drop at minimum 2.0" of LE. Hard to get in March, on the coastal plain perfectly timed up with a strong arctic high.

The one thing that 1888 had that you don't get in March a lot these days is a nice strong, perfectly placed arctic high. That storm had that and brought it down to the coast. Temps were frigid on East Coast. Record lows and low-max's that day and the day after. That's basically what it takes to get a 20"+ storm in NYC in March.

Anywhere else in the Northeast, except for SE Mass/the Cape, has a much higher chance of achieving this in March, especially inland areas with higher elevation. Heck, it can happen in April in the NE, see April Fool's Day blizzard of 1997. Worcester had over 30" I think. Also, I think it was March 1958 or 1960 in Norfolk, Connecticut that they got something like 60" of snow for the month alone. It might have even been higher than that.

Point is, you need a VERY cold airmass to interact with a VERY wet system and NYC just doesn't have that great of a location for it.

 

You're absolutely right and that's what I was thinking too.  You need something truly historic like a March 1993 or March 1960.  March 2001 could have done it, but all the pieces didn't quite line up- maybe if that event had been in January it would have been an HECS down here.

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On 3/2/2019 at 9:59 PM, BombsAway1288 said:

Lol I guess I should have read the posts following that question. I keep the tabs open and these advertisement banners block the thing that says there are new posts.

But yeah, you pretty much got your answer.

It doesn't surprise me that LI had a 20" last March. They have the advantage of getting into the juicy QPF with intense rates and not being so urban.

Sometimes it's good to be sticking out into the ocean ;)

Suffolk County has a winter climate that more closely matches SNE than it does NYC.  I've noticed that in storms in which SNE (like Boston) does better than NYC, so does Suffolk County, but if NYC does better, then Suffolk County is usually lower in snowfall totals than NYC.

 

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With Officially 5.0 inches of snow in Central Park from last nights storm, NYC is now at 20.5 inches for the season which places this season 101st of the last 150 years.

NYC now needs only 17.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, to reach 30 inches per year. If no snow fell until then it would be 29.4. The current average since January 1991 is 30.6 inches. The 150 year average is now 28.9 inches.

March now has 10.4 inches for the month and is now the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years. Three of the last five March's have seen double digit snow amounts and 2017 at 9.7 inches just missed.

That 20.5 is a new seasonal snowfall record for a DJF with under 5.0” of snow. The 2010’s keep coming up with new and unusual snowfall records.

DJF under 5” snow in NYC and seasonal snowfall total

0.5....1997-1998....5.5

1.1....1918-1919....3.8

 2.6.....1972-1973...2.8

2.7......1931-1932..5.3

3.2......1991-1992..12.6

3.5......2001-2002...3.5

3.7......2018-2019...20.5

 4.5......2011-2012....7.4

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That 20.5 is a new seasonal snowfall record for a DJF with under 5.0” of snow. The 2010’s keep coming up with new and unusual snowfall records.

DJF under 5” snow in NYC and seasonal snowfall total

0.5....1997-1998....5.5

1.1....1918-1919....3.8

 2.6.....1972-1973...2.8

2.7......1931-1932..5.3

3.2......1991-1992..12.6

3.5......2001-2002...3.5

3.7......2018-2019...20.5

 4.5......2011-2012....7.4

Chris, what are the airport seasonal snowfall totals?  Thanks!

 

 

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March has taken the place of December for snowfall since 12-13.

NYC monthly and seasonal snowfall Oct-Apr.

.....................O....N....D......J.......F......M.....A

Mean 0.0 1.6 3.0 12.3 10.8 8.4 0.9 36.9
2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 M 20.5

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

March has taken the place of December for snowfall since 12-13.

NYC monthly and seasonal snowfall Oct-Apr.

.....................O....N....D......J.......F......M.....A

Mean 0.0 1.6 3.0 12.3 10.8 8.4 0.9 36.9
2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 M 20.5

 

 

this looks very similar to the 50s, when seasonal averages were low but March was the snowiest month

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We can do fine down here in March with the right conditions. Last late March’s 12”+ storm and Apr 2nd morning storm are examples. 

You need a strong Arctic airmass for urban areas though.  Long Island, has more of an SNE-like climate.  For urban areas, you need a March 1993 or March 1960 like airmass for a widespread 10+ event all across the area.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You need a strong Arctic airmass for urban areas though.  Long Island, has more of an SNE-like climate.  For urban areas, you need a March 1993 or March 1960 like airmass for a widespread 10+ event all across the area.

if we had the airmass for the storm a few days before the city might have been close to 10 inches last night...

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You need a strong Arctic airmass for urban areas though.  Long Island, has more of an SNE-like climate.  For urban areas, you need a March 1993 or March 1960 like airmass for a widespread 10+ event all across the area.

It was in the 40s the day before the 93 blizzard and mid 30s when the snow started. Similar to last night.

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5 hours ago, Meteoropoulos said:

Yeah, it’s 16 days away, but can’t we dream?!

She rounds the bend beautifully and hits the benchmark with plenty of cold air in place. More realistic than the Canadian showing 3-4 feet last week for next weekend. Lol

The 20th, and dates surrounding it, always seem to feature some snowfall.  I received 3.9 inches on March 20th 2015, .50 inches on March 20th 2016, 1 inch on March 18th 2017, and 9 inches March 21-22nd 2018.

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In the wake of a snowstorm that brought southern New England its heaviest snow to date, snowfall totals in numerous cities have closed the gap with normal seasonal levels. The latest data for select cities is below:

Albany: 51.1", 2.3" above normal
Allentown: 32.1", 4.2" above normal
Baltimore: 18.0", 0.7" below normal
Binghamton: 77.0", 10.6" above normal
Boston: 26.5", 9.0" below normal
Bridgeport: 25.6", 3.0" above normal
Buffalo: 111.6", 30.7" above normal (21st snowiest winter)
Burlington: 88.9", 25.6" above normal (28th snowiest winter)
Caribou: 149.5", 64.1" above normal (7th snowiest winter)
Chicago: 41.3", 10.8" above normal
Detroit: 29.2", 5.9" below normal
Harrisburg: 40.9", 14.9" above normal
Hartford: 38.9", 5.2" above normal
Islip: 12.7", 7.9" below normal
New York City: 20.5", 1.6" below normal
Newark: 21.7", 2.2" below normal
Philadelphia: 17.1", 2.6" below normal
Portland: 59.1", 10.7" above normal
Providence: 28.3", 0.4" below normal
Sterling: 25.5", 6.0" above normal
Washington, DC: 16.9", 2.4" above normal
Worcester: 46.9", 4.9" below normal

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential for further warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -2.15 today. It has been negative for 26 out of the last 27 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.365. The AO has now been positive for 24 consecutive days.

On March 3, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.383 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the March 2-adjusted figure of 2.323. Phase 3 is one of the more prominent phases for 6" or greater snowstorms in Boston, where 10.6" snow fell in the vicinity of Logan Airport and more than a foot was recorded in South Boston. The MJO will likely advance toward Phase 4 over the next 3-5 days. There is some uncertainty as to whether it will reach Phase 4 or head toward lower amplitudes. The seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes.

Following the recent snowstorm, much colder than normal readings are likely to prevail for several days in the East. Afterward, sustained warming could develop during the weekend of March 9-10. The warmer readings will likely limit opportunities for snowfall. The potential for widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s into southern New England and 50s in portions of the Middle Atlantic region near mid-month exists. Such a warm-up is particularly likely when the PDO is negative. The February PDO was -0.55.

The EPS has consistently been advertising just such a warm-up that would commence during the second week of March. At this time, the likelihood of such a warm-up is fairly high. However, some possibility exists for a return to cooler relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Snow extent anomalies for North America are right up there with 2014 and 2015 for early March. This will be remembered as the late start to spring decade.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

F0C22AF9-8C53-4F73-8EF8-319D4210D0C1.png.a0b35f3e298c3ca20fce6f6929d116a5.png

Blah.  Well at least we seem to make up for it with September more and more resembling a summer month. 

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5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

if we had the airmass for the storm a few days before the city might have been close to 10 inches last night...

Why cant we get a storm like this in the middle of an arctic airmass like we're going to get in the middle of the week?  What a waste of record breaking single digit air.....

I compare it to Yankees hitting HR with no one on base in a blow out game while in close games with RISP they strike out, sounds familiar haha.

 

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