March, 2019

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I use all the OKX forecast zones. NYC has been a bit of a March double digit  snow hole compared to the interior and Suffolk  zones. Last time NYC had double digits in December was way back during the Boxing Day blizzard in 2010. 

But if we confine ourselves to NYC and the metro airports then you have 3-0 favoring December since 1993.  The Boxing Day blizzard far exceeded anything that has happened in March.

Another thing worth noting is that temps can be far colder in December than they can be in March- we have never attained below zero temps in March and yet have done so numerous times in December including the second all time coldest temp of -13 and below zero as late as Christmas 1980.

Usually when March is your snowiest month it means that the winter has been really bad for snowlovers- this was often the case in the 50s when March was the snowiest month.

 

[the_other_guy]

“Usually when March is your snowiest month it means that the winter has been really bad for snowlovers- this was often the case in the 50s when March was the snowiest month.“

 

Bingo! Put that quote on a coffee mug.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ah the famous December storms I was thinking of were Dec 03, 09, 10.  In NYC and where we live nothing in March matched any of those.

also no 20" storms in March at all since 1888 and we had a few in December including the all-time record holder in 1947

It seems like March is more of an inland month for snow which is weird since sea surface temps should be colder than they are in December- but then how come we haven't seen any 20" events in well over a century like we have in December?

 

We had a 20”snowstorm last March out in Suffolk. Here is the full list of 12” events for March and December and the maximum amount location for the 2010’s.

March....6 events

2018

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

 Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

2014

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

 

December....2 events

2010

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But if we confine ourselves to NYC and the metro airports then you have 3-0 favoring December since 1993.  The Boxing Day blizzard far exceeded anything that has happened in March.

Another thing worth noting is that temps can be far colder in December than they can be in March- we have never attained below zero temps in March and yet have done so numerous times in December including the second all time coldest temp of -13 and below zero as late as Christmas 1980.

Usually when March is your snowiest month it means that the winter has been really bad for snowlovers- this was often the case in the 50s when March was the snowiest month.

 

I don't care for March snows at all, so the trend with March delivering more snow than December or February has been a bummer. 

March rarely if ever delivers a KU storm (last winter was a rare exception) and most snows that occur are gone in a day or two. 

But since this winter was so god awful, I'll take anything as a consolation prize.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

We had a 20”snowstorm last March out in Suffolk. Here is the full list of 12” events for March and December and the location.

March....6 events

2018

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

 Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

2014

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

 

December....2 events

2010

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think (as we've discussed before) that urban heat island and sun angle screws us up so we dont get those big March events close to the city.  I remember Uncle mentioned that even before March 1993 it had been something like three decades since a double digit snow storm happened in NYC.

It would probably take that kind of Arctic airmass to get it done for highly urbanized areas, I dont see how double digit snowfalls are possible in March with marginal airmasses.  

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't care for March snows at all, so the trend with March delivering more snow than December or February has been a bummer. 

March rarely if ever delivers a KU storm (last winter was a rare exception) and most snows that occur are gone in a day or two. 

But since this winter was so god awful, I'll take anything as a consolation prize.

Historically having big events in December usually means we have more consistent snow cover and it usually is a good harbinger for the upcoming winter.  Last March-April was nice but it didn't have the kind of feel of 2010-11, which was an amazing winter up until February.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't care for March snows at all, so the trend with March delivering more snow than December or February has been a bummer. 

March rarely if ever delivers a KU storm (last winter was a rare exception) and most snows that occur are gone in a day or two. 

But since this winter was so god awful, I'll take anything as a consolation prize.

Yes- this reminds me of 1991-92, if I remember the season correctly.  We hadn't had any decent events that winter, nor for a few winters before that (we had a streak of winters without a 6" snowfall going), and then in March NYC ended up getting a 6" snowfall....of course here on the south shore we were mixing with rain during most of the storm so we didn't accumulate much.  Later on that same March we had another event, which was colder than the previous one, but the forecast of 5-8" busted and we ended up only getting 3"  That one was right around or just after the equinox while the 6" event was in mid March.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s difficult o use NYC for our area. The best snowstorms often dump the heaviest snowfall just NW of NYC or to the east across Suffolk. So when you limit to NYC, you miss many of the jackpots. It’s tough for NYC to jackpot compared to the rest of the area.The last NYC Central Park jackpot may have been February 2006 for 12”+ events.

Yes, but what if you increase the baseline and use the airports as well, so you have NYC, LGA and JFK (not sure if we should include EWR).  When you include all the airports as well as NYC you should have more.... NYC did so well with Boxing Day and had 20", JFK had 15" in Dec 09.  And I think the entire area was 12"+ with Dec 03.

It just seems that we need an exceptional Arctic shot like we had in March 1993 to get double digit snowfall to highly urbanized areas this late in the season.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Historically having big events in December usually means we have more consistent snow cover and it usually is a good harbinger for the upcoming winter.  Last March-April was nice but it didn't have the kind of feel of 2010-11, which was an amazing winter up until February.

 

Once March arrives, so does Spring with rapidly rising averages and a higher sun angle. It'll never feel like early to mid winter. 

However in the past & maybe the present March has averaged more snow than even December. March has the cold SSTs and the storminess that December often lacks. 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes, but what if you increase the baseline and use the airports as well, so you have NYC, LGA and JFK (not sure if we should include EWR).  When you include all the airports as well as NYC you should have more.... NYC did so well with Boxing Day and had 20", JFK had 15" in Dec 09.  And I think the entire area was 12"+ with Dec 10.

It just seems that we need an exceptional Arctic shot like we had in March 1993 to double digit snowfall to highly urbanized areas this late in the season.

It may just be luck with March major snowstorm tracks. They have either been huggers like March 17 which favored the interior. Or benchmark scrapers like last March which favored Suffolk. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Once March arrives, so does Spring with rapidly rising averages and a higher sun angle. It'll never feel like early to mid winter. 

However in the past & maybe the present March has averaged more snow than even December. March has the cold SSTs and the storminess that December often lacks. 

Yes, March had the record for most monthly snowfall for a long time (30" in March 1896) until the craziness of the past couple of decades took the record away.

The SST issue is what puzzles me, they're colder than they are even in January, but we get stuck under marginal scenarios like we have been recently.

It would be amazing to get another March 1993 like storm but have it take a March 1960 track- I think that would exceed even March 1888 in both snow AND wind (and thus snow drifts.)

March HECS happen far less frequently but when they do (coupled with an extremely anomalous Arctic airmass) they can be absolutely amazing.  Even March 1888 was associated with such an airmass (single digits behind the storm.)

I think if you look at the big March events that the city has had in its history, most of them have been accompanied by temps in the teens or even single digits.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may just be luck with March major snowstorm tracks. They have either been huggers like March 17 which favored the interior. Or benchmark scrapers like last March which favored Suffolk. 

I think one of our great historians should do an analysis of March HECS for the city (including Central Park and the local airports) and see if it holds true that March HECS for our urban areas are usually accompanied by extreme Arctic airmasses.  Three that come to mind immediately are March 1888, March 1960 and March 1993.

April even fits that bill because EWR got 13" in April 1982 with temps in the teens by the end of the storm.

 

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It would be amazing to get another March 1993 like storm but have it take a March 1960 track- I think that would exceed even March 1888 in both snow AND wind (and thus snow drifts.)

Now that would be something. Something like that would just rake the whole area. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Now that would be something. Something like that would just rake the whole area. 

That would completely make up for March 2001 and any other bust we've ever had!

 

[the_other_guy]

There is a line in mid March where snow turns to heavy, wet slop.

 

The first 10 days or so you can get around that.

 

Today, for instance, looks and feels like a winter morning.

 

But, the end is near...The last two mornings looked and felt like with winter mornings...but then the sun came out

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, March had the record for most monthly snowfall for a long time (30" in March 1896) until the craziness of the past couple of decades took the record away.

The SST issue is what puzzles me, they're colder than they are even in January, but we get stuck under marginal scenarios like we have been recently.

It would be amazing to get another March 1993 like storm but have it take a March 1960 track- I think that would exceed even March 1888 in both snow AND wind (and thus snow drifts.)

March HECS happen far less frequently but when they do (coupled with an extremely anomalous Arctic airmass) they can be absolutely amazing.  Even March 1888 was associated with such an airmass (single digits behind the storm.)

I think if you look at the big March events that the city has had in its history, most of them have been accompanied by temps in the teens or even single digits.

 

Don't look at the March 1888 blizzard in NYC and the 21.0 inches that was officially recorded in the books, look at the actual pictures in Manhattan from that day and the day after.

That storm dumped 3 feet of snow in Manhattan, 30 inches if you want to be very conservative. Brooklyn and Queens both reported 36 inches and 40-55 inches was reported in most of the HV, so somehow in between there Manhattan recorded 21? Sorry but that measurement makes the Boxing day blizzard measurement (20.0 inches officially 24-25 in reality) look legit in comparison. I know they will never correct something from over 100 years ago but that under measurement is one that should be officially thrown out the window.

[LibertyBell]

It actually looks like midwinter outside- this is NICE.  Nice to see a good rate of snow falling AND a nice blanket of snow covering everything.  Something we've been missing this entire season.  We either had the changeover messes which melted before the storm even ended or we had short bursts of heavy snow like that snow squall back in January that evaporated overnight.  Nothing like this.

It doesn't even matter how much accumulates if we can have a few more days of what we've seen this morning.

 

[BxEngine]

First couple pages of this thread, as is tradition, is a fun read. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Don't look at the March 1888 blizzard in NYC and the 21.0 inches that was officially recorded in the books, look at the actual pictures in Manhattan from that day and the day after.

That storm dumped 3 feet of snow in Manhattan, 30 inches if you want to be very conservative. Brooklyn and Queens both reported 36 inches and 40-55 inches was reported in most of the HV, so somehow in between there Manhattan recorded 21? Sorry but that measurement makes the Boxing day blizzard measurement (20.0 inches officially 24-25 in reality) look legit in comparison. I know they will never correct something from over 100 years ago but that under measurement is one that should be officially thrown out the window.

That must have been a 30" plus storm if you just extrapolate from the 26" in southern Brooklyn and the 32" in northern Queens and the 35" on the north shore of Long Island.  All our biggest storms have been undermeasured (March 1888, Jan 1996, December 2010).  I'd argue that February 1978 and February 1983 were undermeasured too, as well as our big 1960s snowstorms like February 1961 and February 1969.  All of these were 20 inch plus, some of them were 25 inches plus.  In some of them the airports gave some indication of what the true snowfall was (LGA was 28" in Jan 1996, EWR was around that too), February 1983 was 22" at JFK, the Feb 1961 and Feb 1969 storms were both around 24-25" at LGA and JFK.  Even PD2 was somewhat undermeasured at NYC as JFK recorded 26"

 

[bluewave]

Looks like the first time since 1989-1990 that NYC had heavier snow events in Nov and Mar than DJF.

At 7:00 AM EST, Central Park [New York Co, NY] PARK/FOREST SRVC reports SNOW of 4.00 INCH. PARK CONSERVANCY

[Yanksfan]

I ended up with 4 inches. Storm is winding down.

[CIK62]

EURO is smoking something again.       Calls for 6" Sun/Mon, then for the coldest temperature ever in March,   2* on the morning of the 7th., maybe even -5*.    Bad weed going round, the GEM had it yesterday, wears off in a day but probably damages the computer engines.   lol.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the first time since 1989-1990 that NYC had heavier snow events in Nov and Mar than DJF.

At 7:00 AM EST, Central Park [New York Co, NY] PARK/FOREST SRVC reports SNOW of 4.00 INCH. PARK CONSERVANCY

That is crazy though when you consider the totals in D-F it looks less impressive. 

Still the fact that we couldn't get at least 7"+ in this era is something. 

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

EURO is smoking something again.       Calls for 6" Sun/Mon, then for the coldest temperature ever in March,   2* on the morning of the 7th., maybe even -5*.    Bad weed going round, the GEM had it yesterday, wears off in a day but probably damages the computer engines.   lol.

I doubt it gets down to 2 but it will be way below normal regardless 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That is crazy though when you consider the totals in D-F it looks less impressive. 

Still the fact that we couldn't get at least 7"+ in this era is something. 

Not surprising in the new era of stuck and stagnant weather patterns. We just had a very persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm track pattern locked in for DJF. Now we are finally seeing the coastal storm track become more active for the spring. So it allows  heavier snows than were possible during the winter.

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

First couple pages of this thread, as is tradition, is a fun read. 

If I didn't know better I'd think that was a dig.....

[IrishRob17]

4 hours ago, BxEngine said:

First couple pages of this thread, as is tradition, is a fun read. 

Violently agree. 

If I squeeze out 4.3” tomorrow night I will have seen my March average within the first 4 days of the month. 

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think (as we've discussed before) that urban heat island and sun angle screws us up so we dont get those big March events close to the city.  I remember Uncle mentioned that even before March 1993 it had been something like three decades since a double digit snow storm happened in NYC.

It would probably take that kind of Arctic airmass to get it done for highly urbanized areas, I dont see how double digit snowfalls are possible in March with marginal airmasses.  

They are rare and I was scolded for pointing that out last March but I wasn’t wrong 

[donsutherland1]

Six photos from today’s snowstorm:

Larchmont, NY:

Rye, NY:

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

With Officially 4.0 inches of snow in Central Park today NYC is now at 15.5 inches for the season which ties this season for 116th place out of the last 150 years of record keeping, tied with the winter of 1970/71.  

That winter was much colder than this winter, although not exceptionally so. What did fall stuck around a lot longer, January at 26.9° was the cold month that winter and with 11.4 inches of snow by far the snowiest. December at 34.4° and February at 35.1° were both near average for that period. March averaged 40.1° which is historically average, but a few degrees below what our new averages (1981-2010) are for March.

NYC now needs only 22.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, which will be calculated in January 2021, to reach 30 inches per year. The current average snowfall for the period January 1991-March 2019 is now 30.5 inches. The 150 year average in NYC is 28.8 inches.

March now has 5.4 inches of snow for the first two days of the month, and only needs 1.1 inches by the end of the month to become the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years.

This winter season now becomes only the second season in history that November and March will be the two snowiest months. The only other time this happened was the Winter of 1989-90.