Cfa Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 With 0.2” March is already snowier than December (0.0”). 0.5” needed for March to be snowier than January (0.6”). 2.2” needed for March to be snowier than February (2.3”). 2.8” needed for March to be snowier than Winter 2018-19 (2.9”). 4.2” needed for March to be snowier than November (4.3”). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'm finally ready to be somewhat bullish at least for northern areas of NYC and LI. The Nam and to lesser extent the Euro going just a hair colder as the precip gets intense later tonight, at least enough to tip it maybe just cold enough for snow, is encouraging. It'll be interesting to see how far SE the cold air can make it with the heavier precip rates-whether it makes it down to the south shore. Could be a system where there's a notable difference between north of the Northern State and south of Sunrise Highway. Could easily be a few inches if the cold gets in soon enough with the heavy precip. Hopefully this can finally be a storm where it matters that I moved here from LB. I'm not sure what to think; SI has a WAA just across the Arthur Kill, but Mt Holly has nothing. They don't seem impressed with Sun night either. Not hearing talk about it here so I guess it's nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I'm not sure what to think; SI has a WAA just across the Arthur Kill, but Mt Holly has nothing. They don't seem impressed with Sun night either. Not hearing talk about it here so I guess it's nothing to get excited about. The talk about the sunday night storm is in the other thread that was created for just that storm. That storm keeps trending colder. It's really starting to look as if we're going to finally see a significant snowstorm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: The talk about the sunday night storm is in the other thread that was created for just that storm. That storm keeps trending colder. It's really starting to look as if we're going to finally see a significant snowstorm here. Yeah I saw that just now. I sure hope so, but it didn't seem like it from reading the posts. What a strange winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah I saw that just now. I sure hope so, but it didn't seem like it from reading the posts. What a strange winter. It has been a strange winter with snow events missing this area in all different directions. Hopefully we'll make up for it somewhat with a few inches of snow tonight and then a bigger storm sunday night. I see 18z RGEM and the latest HRRR have us getting 3 to 4 inches here tonight. Let's hope those models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I've been out of the loop all day and just saw a WWA posted for the area to my surprise. I just took a quick look at the radar and saw nothing in sight so I'm wondering why they posted the advisory for 7 this evening onwards. In any event, I'm hoping that the Sunday/Monday threat is a miss because I have a flight to Tampa first thing Monday morning. It would be just my luck for the first big snow of the season to occur right when I'm flying out of here. Sorry fellow snow hounds but I need this next storm to be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: I've been out of the loop all day and just saw a WWA posted for the area to my surprise. I just took a quick look at the radar and saw nothing in sight so I'm wondering why they posted the advisory for 7 this evening onwards. In any event, I'm hoping that the Sunday/Monday threat is a miss because I have a flight to Tampa first thing Monday morning. It would be just my luck for the first big snow of the season to occur right when I'm flying out of here. Sorry fellow snow hounds but I need this next storm to be a bust. Yeah well I need a day off so I want an big impact. Sorry. And sorry you have to go to Tampa, or anywhere in Fl, for any reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 I am very excited for the third straight morning with snow. Why couldn’t we have had this more throughout this winter? This is by far the best pattern we have had all winter. I do like the potential. Still looking good to get to 60-70% of our average snowfall by the end of the winter, and possibly close to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 24 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah well I need a day off so I want an big impact. Sorry. And sorry you have to go to Tampa, or anywhere in Fl, for any reason. Why is that? Tampa is a great place to visit. To each their own I guess. I hope you get your day off another day. I'd prefer not to have a flight cancellation or wait in the airport all day for my flight to resume. Anyway, I hope we get a good snow tomorrow. I believe that 3+ inches would be our 2nd biggest snowfall of the year as sad as that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Yeah well I need a day off so I want an big impact. Sorry. And sorry you have to go to Tampa, or anywhere in Fl, for any reason. My brain wants a big impact but my heart disagrees FL is a different place from the middle Keys on out, in fact it's a pretty great place out there. North of Marathon is pretty much useless to me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Cfa said: With 0.2” March is already snowier than December (0.0”). 0.5” needed for March to be snowier than January (0.6”). 2.2” needed for March to be snowier than February (2.3”). 2.8” needed for March to be snowier than Winter 2018-19 (2.9”). 4.2” needed for March to be snowier than November (4.3”). If December snowfall continues as low as its been since 2011, then March may eventually overtake it in future 30 year climate normals updates. That was some run of December snowfalls from 2000 to 2010. But March has been much more interesting than December following the Boxing Day Blizzard in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Why is that? Tampa is a great place to visit. To each their own I guess. I hope you get your day off another day. I'd prefer not to have a flight cancellation or wait in the airport all day for my flight to resume. Anyway, I hope we get a good snow tomorrow. I believe that 3+ inches would be our 2nd biggest snowfall of the year as sad as that is I don't like FL. Any part of it. Folks lived in Hollywood for 20 years. Just an awful place IMO. Had some hair raising experiences there ( including Tampa ) none of them good, and a couple almost lethal. The last time I went I almost never left the hotel. Anyway, what we want doesn't really matter, right? Mother nature is gonna do her thing. I miss Mulen's commentary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, gravitylover said: My brain wants a big impact but my heart disagrees FL is a different place from the middle Keys on out, in fact it's a pretty great place out there. North of Marathon is pretty much useless to me... For starters, I have to avoid sunlight. So there's that. Pretty uncomfortable in long sleeves, pants, and hat. basically dressed like a beekeeper. Today's new materials to block the sun are better but still not ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 38 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I am very excited for the third straight morning with snow. Why couldn’t we have had this more throughout this winter? This is by far the best pattern we have had all winter. I do like the potential. Still looking good to get to 60-70% of our average snowfall by the end of the winter, and possibly close to average. It's been minimal dustings out here. Hope we can score something better in the next couple days, but hopes are tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Earlier today, a storm brought a swath of snow to much of the region. Amounts included: Atlantic City: 1.2"; Baltimore: 2.3"; Bridgeport: 1.0"; Harrisburg: 4.0"; Islip: 0.2"; New York City: 1.4"; Newark: 0.8"; Philadelphia: 3.0"; and, Washington, DC: 0.3". Another storm will bring a general 1"-3" to New York City, Newark and nearby areas. 2"-4" with locally higher amounts is possible in Bridgeport, New City, Poughkeepsie, and White Plains. Cities including Boston, Hartford, Providence, and Worcester will likely pick up 3"-6". 1"-2" is likely in Nassau County with generally around an inch in Suffolk County (more on the North Shore, less on the South Shore). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential for further warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks. The SOI was +4.79 today. That is its first positive figure since February 6 when it was +1.54 and its highest figure since February 1 when the SOI was +6.96. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.752. The AO has now been positive for 21 consecutive days. On February 28, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.115(RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the February 27-adjusted figure of 1.920. The MJO will continue to advance toward Phase 3. Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or perhaps significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms. Afterward, sustained warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The potential for widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s into southern New England and 50s in portions of the Middle Atlantic region near mid-month exists. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: If December snowfall continues as low as its been since 2011, then March may eventually overtake it in future 30 year climate normals updates. That was some run of December snowfalls from 2000 to 2010. But March has been much more interesting than December following the Boxing Day Blizzard in 2010. Definitely. And it’s no coincidence that March has generally been colder than normal in recent years with a couple of outliers that were significantly warmer than normal. Aside from 2011, we haven’t seen a “normal” March in this decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I don't think spring is coming soon. The mjo on the euro wants to go into the COD after phase 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I don't think spring is coming soon. The mjo on the euro wants to go into the COD after phase 3. 88 help me out what does the MJO entering the COD mean exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 5 hours ago, winterwx21 said: It has been a strange winter with snow events missing this area in all different directions. Hopefully we'll make up for it somewhat with a few inches of snow tonight and then a bigger storm sunday night. I see 18z RGEM and the latest HRRR have us getting 3 to 4 inches here tonight. Let's hope those models are correct. I guess for those of us who have experienced many winters like this it's not so strange. This is what happens when you have a split jetstream most of the winter. NYC area is reliant on coastals to get major snowfall. We dont do well with northern stream systems (they are much better for new england) and dont do well with southern stream systems (they are better for DC and Baltimore.) We need the two streams to combine and create a coastal in just the right spot. We have more wiggle room with a -NAO and a good Pac but we have had neither of those. In this kind of winter pattern it's quite normal to miss out on snow even if it's not a very mild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: If December snowfall continues as low as its been since 2011, then March may eventually overtake it in future 30 year climate normals updates. That was some run of December snowfalls from 2000 to 2010. But March has been much more interesting than December following the Boxing Day Blizzard in 2010. But as far as big snowfalls are concerned, it's not even close- December takes the cake. We have had numerous 10"+ snowfalls in December including a couple of 20 inchers. You dont see that in March around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I don't think spring is coming soon. The mjo on the euro wants to go into the COD after phase 3. Most of the forecasts seem to be going mild for March, it's just the first 10 days or so that are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I don't like FL. Any part of it. Folks lived in Hollywood for 20 years. Just an awful place IMO. Had some hair raising experiences there ( including Tampa ) none of them good, and a couple almost lethal. The last time I went I almost never left the hotel. Anyway, what we want doesn't really matter, right? Mother nature is gonna do her thing. I miss Mulen's commentary. I cant stand high humidity at all. Heat doesn't bother me, humidity does. I'd rather have 100 degrees with 30% humidity than 80 degrees with 80% humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I cant stand high humidity at all. Heat doesn't bother me, humidity does. I'd rather have 100 degrees with 30% humidity than 80 degrees with 80% humidity. I don't care for humidity or the heat. Can't have everything, I actually don't mind if it's cloudy and wet most of the summer, but that kills the garden. So does hot and dry. Summers are great in NE, not so much here. The haze. I hate the smog induced haze. You get out to see, you can see the haze surrounding the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I don't care for humidity or the heat. Can't have everything, I actually don't mind if it's cloudy and wet most of the summer, but that kills the garden. So does hot and dry. Summers are great in NE, not so much here. The haze. I hate the smog induced haze. You get out to see, you can see the haze surrounding the city. Yep, you get up into the mountains and it's an entirely different story. Most nights, even if it's very hot during the day, you dont need A/C at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 10 hours ago, forkyfork said: march is the new february Strange, but true. Missing this event in Sullivan co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or about 6degs. BN. 32.0* here at 6am., lite snow, 2" so far? 32.0* here at 7am., lite snow 33.2* here at 8am., no precip. 34.2* here at 9am, no precip. 35.8* here at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: But as far as big snowfalls are concerned, it's not even close- December takes the cake. We have had numerous 10"+ snowfalls in December including a couple of 20 inchers. You dont see that in March around here. March is ahead of December in the big snowfall department for the 2010’s also. These stats are for the whole OKX forecast area. For the 2010’s there have been 6 snowstorms of 12” or more in March to only 2 in December. The last major 12” inch or greater December events were way back in 2009 and 2010. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms. Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....2 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....5 Feb 1-Feb 15.....6 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....5 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: March is ahead of December in the big snowfall department for the 2010’s also. These stats are for the whole OKX forecast area. For the 2010’s there have been 6 snowstorms of 12” or more in March to only 2 in December. The last major 12” inch or greater December events were way back in 2009 and 2010. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms. Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....2 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....5 Feb 1-Feb 15.....6 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....5 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 Bluewave I don't believe those March storms delivered more than 12 in the city. 10 and change seems to be the historical match. Maybe northern Bronx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I was looking forward to a warm up after mid March. The EPS now wants to build a +PNA and dump a trough in the east for that period. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: March is ahead of December in the big snowfall department for the 2010’s also. These stats are for the whole OKX forecast area. For the 2010’s there have been 6 snowstorms of 12” or more in March to only 2 in December. The last major 12” inch or greater December events were way back in 2009 and 2010. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms. Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....2 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....5 Feb 1-Feb 15.....6 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....5 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 ah the famous December storms I was thinking of were Dec 03, 09, 10. In NYC and where we live nothing in March matched any of those. also no 20" storms in March at all since 1888 and we had a few in December including the all-time record holder in 1947 and the great Boxing Day Blizzard It seems like March is more of an inland month for snow which is weird since sea surface temps should be colder than they are in December- but then how come we haven't seen any 20" events in well over a century like we have in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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