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March, 2019


snowman19
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Hi all,  I haven't been following posts closely but making sure we are aware of the vast differences between the 00z/1 GFS and 00z/1 EC.  

 

This i think will be an EC win vs the GFS for the mid week chill.  My take: Near record cold Thursday morning the 7th CP. Temps in Sussex County of nw NJ will probably be at or below freezing from late Monday afternoon through early Saturday. Morning lows over the rural areas will drop to zero or below on a couple of mornings, especially Thursday when wind chill may be 10 to 20 below.   How it all works out is not 100% but the coming snowpack should help us toward the EC solution. 

 

Fingers crossed the snow "depth"  forecast of the NAM  through 18z Monday is spot-on minimum.  

Walt

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Next weekend's threat is the big snowmaker on the CMC. It and the GFS have been showing a storm in the OHV with a transfer, although the GFS has been showing precip issues for the coast. There's a lot of ensemble support as well.

As for Sunday night, I'm a little concerned that this appears to be a thread the needle situation for the area; heavy precip might not extend very far west of the mix line.

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1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

March is the new February

 

21 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

This has been a pattern for years now 

This is the 5th year in a row for NYC with more snow in March than December.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/1101465406412414979?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

7AM snow totals]

Central Park- 1.4"

18-19...Dec...T.....Mar....1.4 so far

17-18...Dec...7.7..Mar.....11.6

16-17...Dec...3.2..Mar.....9.7

15-16...Dec.....T...Mar.....0.9

14-15...Dec...1.0..Mar....18.6

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think the mid level warm nose is going to limit snowfall tonight/tomorrow morning. There is going to be a lot of sleet. I think the 1-2” forecast from the NWS is very reasonable

Its extremely close. 850 and 925's are 0-1 degrees

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2 hours ago, weatherlogix said:

LOL at the GGEM....take a peek at hours 186-216....funniest snow map of all time. Would this put us above average for the year?

gem_asnow_neus_37.png

That's assuming 10 to 1. Let's be safe and say 12 to 1. That would take my 44 to 52.8.

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47 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Actually now he is saying suppression 

Yeah I saw that. He'll try to find anyway for the worst outcome to get under peoples skin in here. The true definition of someone who just trolls people on this board.

He's already 5-posted but just continues his crap. There should be something for him next time he talks in such absolutes.

Back to the storm

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, very close. The mid-level warming and surface temps are going to lower ratios and cause sleet intrusion, dropping totals IMO 

I can also see places with better precip rates getting dynamic cooling of the column to support sleet/snow even on long island. The precip seems to be trending southeast on this one

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-020615-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.190302T0000Z-190302T1700Z/
Hudson-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
317 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and some sleet expected. Total accumulations of 2 to
  4 inches expected, with the higher amounts expected farther
  away from the Atlantic coast.

* WHERE...New York City and adjacent portions of northeast New
  Jersey south of Interstate 80.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow and sleet
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.
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7 hours ago, weatherlogix said:

LOL at the GGEM....take a peek at hours 186-216....funniest snow map of all time. Would this put us above average for the year?

gem_asnow_neus_37.png

R9_RN_S9_SN_G9_PE_Z9_FR_METE_0000_NewYor

These are really Rorschach Cards.      When  psych asked what do you see?     The paranoid/schizoid/mongoloid met said:    I see you staying home 3/8,9.10, plowing snow.     Unless the courts {GFS/GEFS} step in, his lobotomy is set for tonight.     Now really a 32" snowstorm that would rival the Blizzard  of'88, which was closer to 36" than to 21"----Brooklyn Eagle Paper, Bensonhurst ,no drift, open field, measurement.

 

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I'm finally ready to be somewhat bullish at least for northern areas of NYC and LI. The Nam and to lesser extent the Euro going just a hair colder as the precip gets intense later tonight, at least enough to tip it maybe just cold enough for snow, is encouraging. It'll be interesting to see how far SE the cold air can make it with the heavier precip rates-whether it makes it down to the south shore. Could be a system where there's a notable difference between north of the Northern State and south of Sunrise Highway. Could easily be a few inches if the cold gets in soon enough with the heavy precip. 

Hopefully this can finally be a storm where it matters that I moved here from LB. ;) :snowman: 

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