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March, 2019


snowman19
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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

The Northern Plains and Northwest have had an incredibly cold February/March. What an historic stretch for that area. I can hardly imagine what Glacier National Park looks like.

We’ll see if the Euro Seasonal is correct in leaving a weak reflection of that record cold pattern further SE in the Central Plains for JJA.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/c3s_seasonal_spatial_ecmf_2mtm_3m?facets=undefined&time=2019030100,2208,2019060100&type=ensm&area=area06

49FEBF5A-8CF8-4E8E-A451-9FE17FB6AF48.png.a9515da1df45b6b2822c764da7829d74.png

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The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -3.50 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.173. The AO has now been positive for 50 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April.

Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6°. That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018).

On March 28, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.524 (RMM). The amplitude was higher than the March 27-adjusted figure of 0.301.

Despite the forthcoming warmth, March remains on track to finish with a colder than normal temperature in the region (implied probability of 73% using sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance) and the guidance still suggests that April will be warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States.

It remains likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology.

Some EPS members continue to indicate the possibility of at least some snow, particularly in New England. The 12z EPS had 7 of 51 members with 4" or more snow in Boston. With storminess and colder air not too far away in Canada, that scenario is a possibility.

Interestingly enough, multiple members of the EPS showed some measurable snowfall in Atlanta. Were that to happen, Atlanta would see its latest measurable snowfall on record. Most of the guidance shows no such scenario. Thus, both the preponderance of the modeling and historic climatology argue against measurable snowfall.

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13 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The NAO has been positive, and AO. It will be one of the most +NAO March's on record. 

+NAO patterns are cold with such extreme blocking over NW Canada. The cold season patterns since 2014 have been all about the NE Pacific blocking dominating. There were a few exceptions like January 2016 and March 2018 with a more -NAO. 

 

B1B4499B-5045-4EC9-98BC-29B848E4FD61.gif.ad9b392dd8197f8f4e911aeb6e443833.gif

3DC16E64-E9E0-4917-ADF1-CB3CEE092E17.png.e69744847089a63b3f6fa8e78aa23195.png

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Check out this 10 day NAO forecast. 

nao-mrf.gif

This is currently the best streak since 11 months ago. 

2018  4 30  1.055
2018  5  1  1.090
2018  5  2  1.234
2018  5  3  1.700
2018  5  4  2.265
2018  5  5  2.628
2018  5  6  2.496
2018  5  7  2.168
2018  5  8  2.013
2018  5  9  1.864
2018  5 10  1.606
2018  5 11  1.264

The best extended streak since Winter 2018. 

2018  1 26  1.036
2018  1 27  1.132
2018  1 28  1.327
2018  1 29  1.323
2018  1 30  1.248
2018  1 31  0.982
2018  2  1  1.082
2018  2  2  1.378
2018  2  3  1.118
2018  2  4  1.103
2018  2  5  1.194
2018  2  6  0.979
2018  2  7  1.363
2018  2  8  1.590
2018  2  9  1.851
2018  2 10  1.757
2018  2 11  1.363
2018  2 12  1.325
2018  2 13  1.547
2018  2 14  1.646
2018  2 15  1.449
2018  2 16  1.285
2018  2 17  1.226
2018  2 18  1.064

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