IrishRob17 Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 10 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, when you have homes with yards that need seasonal maintenance, this weather is a godsend. I guess if I had the option to stay inside while the landlord cleans up, I'd also be upset about the lack of 80s in March. Or watch the hired help do it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 11 hours ago, gravitylover said: I'm going to head north and west to get away from the ocean influence. I'm chasing springtime Slowest start to spring for the entire US since 2014. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Slowest start to spring for the entire US since 2014. I sure hope summer doesn’t follow the same trend as 2014 (or 2009). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Cfa said: I sure hope summer doesn’t follow the same trend as 2014 (or 2009). You can see how this was one of those few colder than average 2010’s months for the US. https://mobile.twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1103867574381469697 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Slowest start to spring for the entire US since 2014. The Northern Plains and Northwest have had an incredibly cold February/March. What an historic stretch for that area. I can hardly imagine what Glacier National Park looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Precip seems pretty widespread but so far nothing more than sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 6 hours ago, Cfa said: I sure hope summer doesn’t follow the same trend as 2014 (or 2009). Seriously? 2009 was my favorite summer ever. We paid for it in spades the next few years though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 1 hour ago, nzucker said: The Northern Plains and Northwest have had an incredibly cold February/March. What an historic stretch for that area. I can hardly imagine what Glacier National Park looks like. We’ll see if the Euro Seasonal is correct in leaving a weak reflection of that record cold pattern further SE in the Central Plains for JJA. https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/c3s_seasonal_spatial_ecmf_2mtm_3m?facets=undefined&time=2019030100,2208,2019060100&type=ensm&area=area06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 41 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Seriously? 2009 was my favorite summer ever. We paid for it in spades the next few years though. Some people like 90s and humidity. I'm not one of those people 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 10 hours ago, bluewave said: Slowest start to spring for the entire US since 2014. The NAO has been positive, and AO. It will be one of the most +NAO March's on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4. The SOI was -3.50 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.173. The AO has now been positive for 50 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. There is strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April. Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO reached +2.500 or above during the last 10 days of March and then had four or more days with negative values during the first week of April. The mean temperature for the 4/1-10 period in New York City was 51.6°. That is about 2 1/2 degrees warmer than climatology for the April 1-10 period (1950-2018). On March 28, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.524 (RMM). The amplitude was higher than the March 27-adjusted figure of 0.301. Despite the forthcoming warmth, March remains on track to finish with a colder than normal temperature in the region (implied probability of 73% using sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance) and the guidance still suggests that April will be warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States. It remains likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology. Some EPS members continue to indicate the possibility of at least some snow, particularly in New England. The 12z EPS had 7 of 51 members with 4" or more snow in Boston. With storminess and colder air not too far away in Canada, that scenario is a possibility. Interestingly enough, multiple members of the EPS showed some measurable snowfall in Atlanta. Were that to happen, Atlanta would see its latest measurable snowfall on record. Most of the guidance shows no such scenario. Thus, both the preponderance of the modeling and historic climatology argue against measurable snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Last two days of March averaging 56degs. or about 9degs. AN. Month to date is -1.4[40.7]. March should end at -0.8[41.7]. All 8 days averaging 52degs., or about 3/4degs. AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 13 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The NAO has been positive, and AO. It will be one of the most +NAO March's on record. +NAO patterns are cold with such extreme blocking over NW Canada. The cold season patterns since 2014 have been all about the NE Pacific blocking dominating. There were a few exceptions like January 2016 and March 2018 with a more -NAO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Visible cloud shot suggests some areas may see breaks of sun today...could over-perform temp wise if that's the case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Check out this 10 day NAO forecast. This is currently the best streak since 11 months ago. 2018 4 30 1.055 2018 5 1 1.090 2018 5 2 1.234 2018 5 3 1.700 2018 5 4 2.265 2018 5 5 2.628 2018 5 6 2.496 2018 5 7 2.168 2018 5 8 2.013 2018 5 9 1.864 2018 5 10 1.606 2018 5 11 1.264 The best extended streak since Winter 2018. 2018 1 26 1.036 2018 1 27 1.132 2018 1 28 1.327 2018 1 29 1.323 2018 1 30 1.248 2018 1 31 0.982 2018 2 1 1.082 2018 2 2 1.378 2018 2 3 1.118 2018 2 4 1.103 2018 2 5 1.194 2018 2 6 0.979 2018 2 7 1.363 2018 2 8 1.590 2018 2 9 1.851 2018 2 10 1.757 2018 2 11 1.363 2018 2 12 1.325 2018 2 13 1.547 2018 2 14 1.646 2018 2 15 1.449 2018 2 16 1.285 2018 2 17 1.226 2018 2 18 1.064 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Visible cloud shot suggests some areas may see breaks of sun today...could over-perform temp wise if that's the case Sun breaking through over here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Sun breaking through over here now. The interior will be the warmest today with the S To SE onshore flow keeping coastal sections cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 57 and sunny right now, I think we should at least touch 60 today, if it remains sunny. It’s a shame that we have to cross our fingers for 60 degrees in late March. My highest temp so far this March is a paltry 58, lower than both January (60) and February (64). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Thin overcast but it's quite sunny now. Temp is up to 54*. Gonna go do some more yardwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 61 now, passed January (60), now let’s see if we can top February (64). Funny how yesterday the NWS had us reaching 65 today before changing it back to upper 50’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 57 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Thin overcast but it's quite sunny now. Temp is up to 54*. Gonna go do some more yardwork. That’s what I’m doing today, it’s actually a little toasty for it, I could use a breeze. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 Up to 66 now with quite a bit of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 61 and glorious. We spring cleanup 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Up to 66 now with quite a bit of sun The same here. Perhaps on the way to 70 given how early it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The same here. Perhaps on the way to 70 given how early it is. I just hit 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 67° here even with a pretty strong ese wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 73F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 30, 2019 Share Posted March 30, 2019 67 in Stony Brook. 63 at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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