March, 2019

[Rtd208]

[donsutherland1]

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -3.16 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.351. The AO has now been positive for 46 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March. However, there is growing ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April.

On March 24, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.477 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 23-adjusted figure of 0.785.

Finally, the EPS ensemble mean shows some measurable snow for the first week of April in Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. However, the mean is skewed by a single ensemble member. Prospects for measurable snow during the first week of April remain low, but not zero. New England has a higher probability of seeing such snowfall than the Middle Atlantic region.

[CIK62]

Last 6 days of March averaging 51degs., or 5/6degs. AN.

Month to date is -1.5[40.0].      March should end at -0.3[42.2].

All 8 days averaging 50degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Some April Fool's white cover/trace for some?

Temperatures from the RRWT, [Re-curring Rossby Wave Train] for the two days immediately before and after the date given:

April 3   N+,     April 7   N+,    April 12    BN,    April 17    BN,     April 22   N,    April 27   N,    May 2   BN.    Overall on the Next 30 Days, BN.     We will see if this model does better than it did during the winter.     I had to give up on it then.

[bluewave]

Our next appearance of spring is set for Friday into Saturday.

 

 

[Brian5671]

euro is torchy through Sunday while the GFS has the cold front quicker and Sunday is only in the 40's.  (euro is high 60's for most)

[MJO812]

Looks like a stormy pattern ahead

[NycStormChaser]

storm on the euro next weekend for the Northeast. It's been consistent on the past few runs but the euro has been awful this year. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Our next appearance of spring is set for Friday into Saturday.

 

 

Could be enough to push us above average for the month

[dWave]

Its bone dry today. Dew point is -1 here.

 

[Brian5671]

51 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

storm on the euro next weekend for the Northeast. It's been consistent on the past few runs but the euro has been awful this year. 

LOL-that's 10 days out

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Its bone dry today. Dew point is -1 here.

 

The usual spots could see strong radiational cooling for late March early Wednesday.

KSMQ   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    3/26/2019  1200 UTC
DT /MAR  26/MAR  27                /MAR  28                /MAR  29
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    18          48          20          55    32
TMP  46 48 39 31 25 21 22 39 44 47 40 30 26 22 23 43 51 53 47 37 37
DPT   2  1  5 10 10  8  8  8  9 12 19 23 22 20 20 25 25 26 28 31 32
CLD  CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW SC CL CL CL CL OV OV
WDR  01 35 02 35 35 36 03 07 15 15 15 00 00 00 00 17 17 18 14 00 00
WSP  08 08 01 04 03 01 01 02 02 03 01 00 00 00 00 02 05 05 01 00 00

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The usual spots could see strong radiation cooling for late March early Wednesday.

KSMQ   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    3/26/2019  1200 UTC
DT /MAR  26/MAR  27                /MAR  28                /MAR  29
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    18          48          20          55    32
TMP  46 48 39 31 25 21 22 39 44 47 40 30 26 22 23 43 51 53 47 37 37
DPT   2  1  5 10 10  8  8  8  9 12 19 23 22 20 20 25 25 26 28 31 32

So sick of this useless cold. 

[Brian5671]

The Strong Pac Jet that was a big part in ruining our winter might finally be our friend...

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

euro is torchy through Sunday while the GFS has the cold front quicker and Sunday is only in the 40's.  (euro is high 60's for most)

The ECMWF has waffled on Sunday. Such frontal passages have often been a little slower than modeled, so a mild Sunday is in play.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Could be enough to push us above average for the month

With the cooler readings tonight and tomorrow, the warmth will likely fall short of producing a warm monthly anomaly.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, NycStormChaser said:

storm on the euro next weekend for the Northeast. It's been consistent on the past few runs but the euro has been awful this year. 

At 0z, the ensemble support was limited.

[NycStormChaser]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL-that's 10 days out

No, it's sunday on the euro for Upstate New York. Probably won't amount to anything though 

[purduewx80]

6 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

euro is torchy through Sunday while the GFS has the cold front quicker and Sunday is only in the 40's.  (euro is high 60's for most)

Usually at this range, I find blending frontal timing between these two pieces of guidance is best. Euro too slow/GFS too fast 9x out of 10. the 12Z Euro was a good 6h quicker with the front than the 00z run, now showing a morning high and falling PM temps Sunday.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The usual spots could see strong radiational cooling for late March early Wednesday.

Teens in the coldest spots are likely, dews are below zero in many places and in the single digits for most.

Like a desert, temps will tank once the sun sets. 

[donsutherland1]

The last time the temperature fell to 32° or below in Central Park was March 18 when the thermometer reached 32°. Earlier today, the temperature just missed freezing when the mercury bottomed out at 33°. Tonight the temperature will likely fall to at least 32° in New York City with widespread 20s and even some teens outside the City. After that, there is chance that this could be New York City's last freeze following winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -4.02 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.052. The AO has now been positive for 47 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March. However, there is now strong ensemble support for the AO to go negative in early April.

On March 25, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.324 (RMM). The amplitude was lower than the March 24-adjusted figure of 0.480.

The last two or three days of March could feature much above normal readings, before it briefly turns cooler to start April. Nevertheless, March remains on track to finish with a colder than normal temperature in the region (implied probability of 71% using sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance) and the guidance still suggests that April will be warmer than normal. The highest probability of a colder than normal April exists over the southern and central Plains States.

It is likely that the first 10 days of April could be wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1981, April cases with an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or above have had a higher frequency of large precipitation (1.00" or more) events. At New York City, the frequency of such events was approximately 160% of climatology. At Boston, it was nearly 120% of climatology.

Finally, Atlanta has not yet had any snowfall this winter. The probability of its receiving a measurable snowfall this winter is now extremely low. None of the guidance shows such a snowfall through 15 days. Atlanta's latest measurable snowfall on record was March 24, 1983. In addition, since winter 1928-29 when snowfall was first measured on a regular basis in Atlanta, there have been only 10 days after March 26 when a trace of snow was recorded.

[CIK62]

Last 5 days of March averaging 51.5degs., or about 6degs. AN.

Month to date is -1.6[40.0].        March should end at -0.7[41.8].

All 8 days averaging 49degs., or about 3degs. AN.

[donsutherland1]

Through 6 am, New York City's low temperature is 35°. It is very unlikely that the temperature will reach freezing, leaving March 18 (32°) as the City's last freeze. Going forward, if most of the guidance is accurate, March 18 could be the City's last freeze following winter 2018-19.

Last freezes for the prior 3 years were:

2016 April 10 (31°)
2017 March 23 (23°)
2018 April 9 (32°)

Outside the City there were widespread readings well below freezing. Select 6 am readings included:

Allentown: 27°
Danbury: 23°
Islip: 29°
Newark: 31°
Poughkeepsie: 20°
Scranton: 23°
Westhampton: 32° (after a reading of 15° at 4 am)
White Plains: 29°

There is still an implied 72% probability that March will finish with a cold anomaly. The most likely range is 41.7° (-0.8°) to 42.3° (-0.2°).

[tim]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The usual spots could see strong radiational cooling for late March early Wednesday.

KSMQ   NAM MOS GUIDANCE    3/26/2019  1200 UTC
DT /MAR  26/MAR  27                /MAR  28                /MAR  29
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    18          48          20          55    32
TMP  46 48 39 31 25 21 22 39 44 47 40 30 26 22 23 43 51 53 47 37 37
DPT   2  1  5 10 10  8  8  8  9 12 19 23 22 20 20 25 25 26 28 31 32
CLD  CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL CL FW SC CL CL CL CL OV OV
WDR  01 35 02 35 35 36 03 07 15 15 15 00 00 00 00 17 17 18 14 00 00
WSP  08 08 01 04 03 01 01 02 02 03 01 00 00 00 00 02 05 05 01 00 00

...KFOK @ 32* @ 6am..i'm @ 26*.

Gabreski did get down to 15*@ 4am under calm winds..winds stirred things up and temps rose.

 

[Cfa]

Bottomed out at 31 here, forecast was 24.

[doncat]

Down to 28° here...Very dry airmass  with humidity  levels down in mid teens yesterday.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, doncat said:

Down to 28° here...Very dry airmass  with humidity  levels down in mid teens yesterday.

Newark had one of its driest days in a while. The relative humidity got down to only 10% yesterday

26 Mar 6:51 pm

47

-6

10%

 

[Brian5671]

Been dry outside of the 3/21 storm and even that was only about .50 inch here...

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 6 am, New York City's low temperature is 35°. It is very unlikely that the temperature will reach freezing, leaving March 18 (32°) as the City's last freeze. Going forward, if most of the guidance is accurate, March 18 could be the City's last freeze following winter 2018-19.

Last freezes for the prior 3 years were:

2016 April 10 (31°)
2017 March 23 (23°)
2018 April 9 (32°)

Outside the City there were widespread readings well below freezing. Select 6 am readings included:

Allentown: 27°
Danbury: 23°
Islip: 29°
Newark: 31°
Poughkeepsie: 20°
Scranton: 23°
Westhampton: 32° (after a reading of 15° at 4 am)
White Plains: 29°

There is still an implied 72% probability that March will finish with a cold anomaly. The most likely range is 41.7° (-0.8°) to 42.3° (-0.2°).

It has been between 20-25 for the last few mornings here. It warms pretty quickly to a warm feeling mid 40's but I sure would like it to be more like 60  

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Been dry outside of the 3/21 storm and even that was only about .50 inch here...

On the dry side this month in New England. The above normal precip begins around NYC and to the SW.

 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Bottomed out at 31 here, forecast was 24.

Same