March, 2019

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

994 hugging coast of Monmouth and crossing Nassau cty

all winter did we get a coastal low like this?

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

all winter did we get a coastal low like this?

Yeah, coastal hugger has been one of the most popular storm tracks since the fall along with cutter. We got lucky with the storm tracks near the BM in early March which delivered the snows. Several storms were also suppressed to our south like the multiple Midatlantic snowstorms. The only coastal hugger to deliver a warning level snow in NYC was on November 15th.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20181116.html

 

[justinj]

What’s friday look like for Long Island as far as rain? Is the brunt of the precipitation going to occur Thursday and Thursday night? Got an outdoor event late morening into late afternoon Friday 

[CIK62]

9 minutes ago, justinj said:

What’s friday look like for Long Island as far as rain? Is the brunt of the precipitation going to occur Thursday and Thursday night? Got an outdoor event late morening into late afternoon Friday 

Starts tomorrow morning near 8am, ends late Fri. evening when it will be much colder/flurries?   Looks like there will be  breaks in this long period of precipitation too.    Not much falls Fri. PM.

[doncat]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Lots of mud around! Things were finally drying out enough to make land scape work easier. 

Yeah trying to clean up some of the downed branches and trees  in the adjacent woods...Just seems like there has been almost constant mud, standing water for months now....Been a wet year, would think ground water levels are high.

[gravitylover]

27 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah trying to clean up some of the downed branches and trees  in the adjacent woods...Just seems like there has been almost constant mud, standing water for months now....Been a wet year, would think ground water levels are high.

We really need the trees to leaf out and suck some of this water up. The forests are soggy right now and mostly not pleasant places to be. My yard is a disaster with two trees down and dozens of big branches and hundreds of twigs and small branches and it's so soft that I can only access some parts of it without sinking in an inch or more.

[purduewx80]

45 minutes ago, justinj said:

What’s friday look like for Long Island as far as rain? Is the brunt of the precipitation going to occur Thursday and Thursday night? Got an outdoor event late morening into late afternoon Friday 

There may be some decaying squally showers late Friday afternoon/early evening on LI. Lapse rates become quite steep as the potent upper low and cold pool transition into the area.  It's well timed with max heating over the mountains, so I think there could be a few thunderstorms with small hail just W/NW of the city Friday afternoon as the true cold front comes through.

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah trying to clean up some of the downed branches and trees  in the adjacent woods...Just seems like there has been almost constant mud, standing water for months now....Been a wet year, would think ground water levels are high.

Why do you clean up downed branches in the woods?  I've seen people from the city move out here and send landscaping crews into the woods with leaf-blowers which always leaves (sorry for the pun) me scratching my head.. Is there any practical reason for this or just ignorance of the difference between forest and lawn?

[doncat]

25 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Why do you clean up downed branches in the woods?  I've seen people from the city move out here and send landscaping crews into the woods with leaf-blowers which always leaves (sorry for the pun) me scratching my head.. Is there any practical reason for this or just ignorance of the difference between forest and lawn?

Ok I'll replace "in the adjacent woods" to "from the adjacent woods" 

[donsutherland1]

The historic March heat continued for a third day in parts of the Pacific Northwest. Select temperatures included:

Cultus Lake, BC: 77° (old record: 67°, 1986)
Olympia, WA: 79° (old record: 73°, 1986)
Quillayute, WA: 79° (old record: 68°, 1968)
Seattle: 79° (old record: 74°, 1915)
Shelton, WA: 80° (old record: 68°, 2010)

Seattle had three consecutive days during which the temperature rose to 75° or above during the March 18-20 period. The previous earliest stretch of 3 or more consecutive days with 75° or warmer high temperatures occurred during April 17-20, 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.70°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -3.64 today. It has been negative for 19 consecutive days and 42 out of the last 43 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.283. The AO has now been positive for 41 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 19, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.406 (RMM). The amplitude was slightly higher than the March 18-adjusted figure of 0.382.

Tomorrow into Friday, a strong storm will move along the coastline of the Northeastern United States. Much of the region could receive 0.50"-1.50" rain with locally higher amounts. A moderate to significant snowfall is possible in the Adirondacks, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, western Maine and parts of Quebec.

Another system could bring the risk of precipitation to the region during the March 26-28 period. Some of the guidance suggests the possibility of at least some frozen precipitation from that latter system. Such an outcome would be consistent with historical experience. A small number of the 12z EPS members continue to show 4" or more snow for Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 cases during the March 1-7 period when 6.0" or more snow fell and the average temperature was 32.0° or below. All 10 cases had additional measurable snowfall afterward.

[donsutherland1]

Through March 20, New York City had received 9.10" precipitation. That is 0.32" below normal.

However, a storm will bring a widespread 0.50"-1.50" rain to the region later tomorrow and Friday. Some locally higher amounts are possible. As a result, the City's precipitation will likely move above normal.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the computer guidance, the following are implied probabilities for specified amounts:

0.50" or more: 99%
0.75" or more: 94%
1.00" or more: 76%
1.25" or more: 43%
1.50" or more: 15%
1.75" or more: 3%

During 2018, New York City received 65.55" precipitation making 2018 New York City's 4th wettest year on record. The implied probabilities of New York City's receiving 50.00" or more precipitation this year are as follows:

Historic climate record (1869-2018): 27%
1971-2018 Period: 50%

With the City's climate having grown wetter following 1970, the latter (50%) probability is probably more realistic.

Even as such cities as Philadelphia, New York, Newark, and Boston see rain, a moderate to significant snowfall is possible across the Adirondacks, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, western Maine, and part of Quebec.

Through March 20, Burlington had picked up 95.1" snow making winter 2018-19 that city's 17th snowiest winter on record. 2018-19 is also Burlington's snowiest winter since 2016-17 when 100.4" snow fell. The ranking for 2018-19 would be as follows for the following snowfall amounts:

1": 16th snowiest
2": 14th snowiest
4": 12th snowiest
6": 10th snowiest
8": 10th snowiest
10": 9th snowiest
12": 9th snowiest

Meanwhile, Atlanta has received 0.0" snow through March 20. Atlanta has never had a winter without at least a trace of snow since snowfall records were kept beginning in 1928-29. During the span of its snowfall record, Atlanta had 25 days with a trace of snow (3 of which contained measurable snow) from March 21 through April 30, including 9 days in April. Atlanta's latest measurable snowfall was 7.9", which was recorded on March 24, 1983. That implies that Atlanta still has some probability of seeing at least a trace of snow this winter based on its historic climate record.

Finally, there remains some ensemble support for a measurable snowfall in Boston, New York City, and/or Philadelphia during the March 26-28 period.

[Rtd208]

Mt.Holly pulls the trigger and issues a Flood Watch here from 8:00 am this morning thru late tonight for 1.5"-2.0" of rain w/locally higher amounts possible.

[Rtd208]

 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 44degs., or 1deg. BN.

Month to date is -2.0[38.7].       Should be -1.7[40.2] by the 29th.

All models are Snowless and Clueless near the 27th. now.

[NJwx85]

Sorry I am late to the game, but the convection last week was very impressive locally. Three separate thunderstorms, all with intense lightning, heavy rain and some gusty winds. Didn't see any hail but I know they had quarter sized hail in Paramus, about 5-6 miles away.

[Nibor]

56 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sorry I am late to the game, but the convection last week was very impressive locally. Three separate thunderstorms, all with intense lightning, heavy rain and some gusty winds. Didn't see any hail but I know they had quarter sized hail in Paramus, about 5-6 miles away.

Had pea size hail in Ridgewood. 

[bluewave]

Heck of a way to run spring. The first 20 days of January, February, and March had an average temperature in NYC closer than you would expect.

NYC average temperature

Jan  1-20....34.5

Feb 1-20.....36.4

Mar 1-20.....38.7

[Brasiluvsnow]

pointed out to me that there was a pretty significant shift EAST on the 3K if it verifies  

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

pointed out to me that there was a pretty significant shift EAST on the 3K if it verifies  

for rain amounts?

[Brasiluvsnow]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

for rain amounts?

No , not for Western areas , it would allow the cold air to enter faster and if you were in an area that was on the cusp of mixing this would now be snow

[Brasiluvsnow]

On the 3K , it had the low on the PA border and now it shows the Low just off the Jersey coast , thats a pretty big shift---->Again IF it verifies

[Brian5671]

still mainly an elevation event and some of this is upslope Friday night into Sat

[CIK62]

Just saw this photo on some site called    Today in Photos:   Two days late.

 

March 19, 1992   Connecticut Snowfall        Anyone remember it?   What happened in NYC that day with this, if anything?

[Thank You Stormlover74 for your post below]

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Just saw this photo on some site called    Today in Photos:   Two days late.

 

March 19, 1992   Connecticut Snowfall        Anyone remember it?   What happened in NYC that day with this, if anything?

NYC had 6-7", most fell the night before

[sussexcountyobs]

It's gunna be very close here late tonight, tomorrow morn for a mix or change to snow. I'm leaning towards just rain. 

[Ericjcrash]

Fv3 continues to be interesting Tuesday 

[donsutherland1]

As of 7 pm, New York City had received 0.36" rain bringing annual precipitation for 2019 to 9.46". As a result, the probability of a year in which 50.00" or more precipitation falls has increased to 51% (1971-2018 data).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.70°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -5.64 today. It has been negative for 20 consecutive days and 43 out of the last 44 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.972. The AO has now been positive for 42 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 20, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.163 (RMM). The amplitude was much lower than the March 19-adjusted figure of 0.406. The amplitude was also the lowest since October 21, 2018 when the MJO had an amplitude of 0.153).

Tonight into tomorrow, a strong storm will move along the coastline of the Northeastern United States. Much of the region could receive 0.50"-1.50" rain with locally higher amounts. A moderate to significant snowfall is possible in the Adirondacks, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, western Maine and parts of Quebec.

Another system could bring the risk of precipitation to the region during the March 26-28 period. Some of the guidance suggests the possibility of at least some frozen precipitation from that latter system. Such an outcome would be consistent with historical experience. However, the persistent but low ensemble support for a 4" or more snowfall in Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia has diminished.

Since 1869, New York City has had 10 cases during the March 1-7 period when 6.0" or more snow fell and the average temperature was 32.0° or below. All 10 cases had additional measurable snowfall afterward.

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Just saw this photo on some site called    Today in Photos:   Two days late.

 

March 19, 1992   Connecticut Snowfall        Anyone remember it?   What happened in NYC that day with this, if anything?

[Thank You Stormlover74 for your post below]

 

[doncat]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

 

Snow here during that period was....18th- 1.3",  19th- 3.9", 22nd- 4.7".....So 10" fell during that period here.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 1deg. BN.

Month to date -2.0[38.9].       Should be -1.7[40.3] by the 29th.