March, 2019

[purduewx80]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

100 mph winds and a big line of severe weather too!  Reminds me of the March 1993 Superstorm displaced a couple of thousand miles to the west- is this a triple phaser too?

nice gif explainer of the two shortwaves in play. 

 

[donsutherland1]

An extreme blizzard was bringing blinding snows and fierce winds to parts of Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming this evening. Blizzard conditions will likely continue into tomorrow afternoon and possibly evening in the affected region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -14.84 today. It has been negative for 35 out of the last 36 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.527. The AO has now been positive for 34 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 12, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.299 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the March 11-adjusted figure of 1.494. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days as it heads back toward Phase 3. As the seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes, there is a distinct possibility that it could reach Phase 3 at a high amplitude. Afterward, there is some possibility it could reach Phase 2 before resuming forward progression. However, based on historic experience, it is more likely than not that the MJO won't go all the way back to Phase 2.

Temperatures will likely remain generally above normal through the next 3-6 days across much of the region. The warmth could peak on Friday with readings in the 60s extending as far north as southern New England and 70s into the greater Washington, DC area.

Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal into the closing week of the month. However, this period could be short-lived. At that point, there could be some possibility for another measurable snowfall in at least parts of the region. March 18 might offer the strongest prospect of such a snowfall.

[NorthShoreWx]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been researching past storms of this type (for our and other regions) and some of these are like nothing I've heard of before.  How could a 955 mb cyclone pass over Long Island and drop 24" inches of snow on Long Island?  The cold must've wrapped right into the storm!

Why dont we get storms like this any more?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1886_blizzard

The lowest pressure measured on land was 28.69 inches of mercury (972 hPa) at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Providence, Rhode Island, and Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts; the cyclone was considered one of the most extreme to pass through New England at the time. The storm's center then moved inland across Long Island by 11 a.m. on January 9, then across Rhode Island by 1 p.m. and Boston by 2 p.m. before turning northward through Maine around 10 p.m. Temperature readings quickly fell 10-15F (6-9 C) after the passage of the cyclone. High-level cirrus clouds led the center of circulation by 24 hours, with snow occurring 12 hours after the cirrus invasion.^[3] While weakening, the storm moved through southeast Quebec on January 10.^[5] The low pressure area moved at an average forward motion of 34 miles per hour (55 km/h) through the United States.^[4]

Up to 24 inches (61 cm) of snow fell in parts of Long Island,^[14] with 11.9 inches (30 cm) falling in Central Park.^[15] As the system moved through New England, snowfall appeared concentrated along the cyclone's path, with areas of over 15 inches (38 cm) measured across southeast Connecticut and northeast Massachusetts. A separate maximum of over 10 inches (25 cm) was noted across central Vermont. A 7:1 snow to liquid ratio (or 7 cm/in of snow for every 1 cm/in of rain) was determined from an average of the available snowfall and liquid equivalent measurements made at the time.^[3] Montreal experienced blizzard conditions with heavy snow and wind on January 9.^[10]

The section that says it moved inland across LI was probably written by someone without a clue.  Wikipedia isn't perfect.

The Setauket record isn't much help, although it leaves open the possibility that there was a big storm.  For a coop that has been going for as long as it has, the record is so full of gaps from ancient to modern as to be nearly useless.  This has been a consistent issue with that record since 1885.  Gotta admit...that is a remarkable record of [in]consistency.

FWIW (Setauket - Strongs Neck):

Day	Precipitation	Snow Depth	Snow Fall	Min Temperature	Max Temperature
1886-01-06	0	M	M	19	M
1886-01-07	0	M	M	15.1	26.1
1886-01-08	0	M	M	12	30.9
1886-01-09	0.14	M	2.01	14	24.1
1886-01-10	0.01	M	0.2	10	18
1886-01-11	0	M	M	M	17.1
1886-01-12	0	M	M	1.9	M
1886-01-13	0	M	M	3.9	18
1886-01-14	0	M	M	8.1	25
1886-01-15	0	M	M	10.9	30.9

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The section that says it moved inland across LI was probably written by someone without a clue.  Wikipedia isn't perfect.

The Setauket record isn't much help, although it leaves open the possibility that there was a big storm.  For a coop that has been going for as long as it has, the record is so full of gaps from ancient to modern as to be nearly useless.  This has been a consistent issue with that record since 1885.  Gotta admit...that is a remarkable record of [in]consistency.

FWIW (Setauket - Strongs Neck):

Day	Precipitation	Snow Depth	Snow Fall	Min Temperature	Max Temperature
1886-01-06	0	M	M	19	M
1886-01-07	0	M	M	15.1	26.1
1886-01-08	0	M	M	12	30.9
1886-01-09	0.14	M	2.01	14	24.1
1886-01-10	0.01	M	0.2	10	18
1886-01-11	0	M	M	M	17.1
1886-01-12	0	M	M	1.9	M
1886-01-13	0	M	M	3.9	18
1886-01-14	0	M	M	8.1	25
1886-01-15	0	M	M	10.9	30.9

That article was written by a well-known senior NWS forecaster, so I'm sure the source material was competently consulted... any inconsistencies are probably just down to the inherently rudimentary records of the time. It does appear that the storm did track at least very close to the coast based on pressure and wind obs.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days are averaging 46degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is -5.2[34.5].    Should be -2.0[38.9] by the 22nd.

[MJO812]

Time to put this shitty winter to rest

Models have cutoff city. No sustain warmth at all.

[bluewave]

Here comes the next big temperature swing. Highs in the upper 60’s for the warmer areas away from the shore on Friday. Then the +PNA temperature drop to upper 20’s for lows a few days later.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   3/13/2019  1200 UTC
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
     THU 14| FRI 15| SAT 16| SUN 17| MON 18| TUE 19| WED 20|THU CLIMO
N/X  36  59| 50  68| 45  54| 32  47| 29  46| 29  45| 32  50| 35 34 52

[Brasiluvsnow]

Anyone have the Euro for Sunday / Monday as a day or so ago it was showing a clipper with snow for Sunday nite----Bueller ? Bueller ? anyone 

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Time to put this shitty winter to rest

Models have cutoff city. No sustain warmth at all.

I put it to rest in mid January-it was over then....

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I put it to rest in mid January-it was over then....

You are 99.9 percent right

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Anyone have the Euro for Sunday / Monday as a day or so ago it was showing a clipper with snow for Sunday nite----Bueller ? Bueller ? anyone 

it has nothing at all on last night's run.    Snowless through day 10 for the region.  Only snows for the 10 day period are well north into NNE and even that's less than 3 inches

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I put it to rest in mid January-it was over then....

It felt like a crappy winter, but in reality we were only slightly below average for snowfall (26.66% below average range of 30 to 35). 2001/2, 06/07, 07/08 and 11/12 had far less snowfal.

Between Norwalk and Easton this century, now only FIVE below average winters in 19 seasons!

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

It felt like a crappy winter, but in reality we were only slightly below average for snowfall (26.66% below average range of 30 to 35). 2001/2, 06/07, 07/08 and 11/12 had far less snowfal.

Between Norwalk and Easton this century, now only FIVE below average winters in 19 seasons!

we got lucky with the 10 inch storm...that kind of salvaged it to a degree....not to mention the 4-5 smaller events mid Feb on.  As late as 2/20 we were still at 10 inches or so for the season....

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we got lucky with the 10 inch storm...that kind of salvaged it to a degree....not to mention the 4-5 smaller events mid Feb on.  As late as 2/20 we were still at 10 inches or so for the season....

March saving the day 1980s style! That and the whole early snowstorm and warm wet cold dry pattern. I give the winter a D+ for nostalgia.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

March saving the day 1980s style! That and the whole early snowstorm and warm wet cold dry pattern. I give the winter a D+ for nostalgia.

Yeah, we had one of the lowest winter snowfall totals on record around the area. But the above normal snowfall in November and March boosted the seasonal totals out of the single digits. We experienced the most unfavorable Pacific pattern since the 2011-2012 winter. The fire hose Pacific jet overpowered the winter pattern. It carved out a trough in the West while pumping the SE Ridge/WAR. We even had some Greenland blocking dropping the AO to negative from time to time. But the Pacific pattern was just to dominant for it to matter much.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we had one of the lowest winter snowfall totals on record around the area. But the above normal snowfall in November and March boosted the seasonal totals out of the single digits. We experienced the most unfavorable Pacific pattern since the 2011-2012 winter. The fire hose Pacific jet overpowered the winter pattern. It carved out a trough in the West while pumping the SE Ridge/WAR. We even had some Greenland blocking dropping the AO to negative from time to time. But the Pacific pattern was just to dominant for it to matter much.

Imagine if we had a slow Pac .

We would have been buried.

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we had one of the lowest winter snowfall totals on record around the area. But the above normal snowfall in November and March boosted the seasonal totals out of the single digits. We experienced the most unfavorable Pacific pattern since the 2011-2012 winter. The fire hose Pacific jet overpowered the winter pattern. It carved out a trough in the West while pumping the SE Ridge/WAR. We even had some Greenland blocking dropping the AO to negative from time to time. But the Pacific pattern was just to dominant for it to matter much.

MJO constantly in the warm phases added to the misery and the phantom day 10  -NAO that never appeared.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Imagine if we had a slow Pac .

We would have been buried.

 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

MJO constantly in the warm phases added to the misery and the phantom day 10  -NAO that never appeared.  

So much SST warmth in the Western Pacific during the fall was an early clue that this year wasn’t going to folllow the typical El Niño script. It created a more La Niña-like pattern with the record December  +SOI out of phase for the El Niño. So we got the most unfavorable type Niña fire hose jet and 500 mb regime.The warmer waters west of the DL were also part of a really amped up MJO which got stuck in the more unfavorable phases. The ENSO blog had a nice wrap up on some of the features we were discussing since the fall.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

 

[Stormlover74]

Tomorrow's rain looks nonexistent

[IrishRob17]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tomorrow's rain looks nonexistent

That's been the trend this week, no complaints from me as mud season is upon us.

[Brian5671]

happy to see the rest of the snow melt the next few days...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

happy to see the rest of the snow melt the next few days...

Still piles in the city. Here on the south shore e never had a snow pack because we never really had any snow. Less then 10” for the season total here. Biggest event was 3.5” in November. SE Nassau and Monmouth were the big losers this winter. I give it a D at home and a C at work on 120th and Broadway 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still piles in the city. Here on the south shore e never had a snow pack because we never really had any snow. Less then 10” for the season total here. Biggest event was 3.5” in November. SE Nassau and Monmouth were the big losers this winter. I give it a D at home and a C at work on 120th and Broadway 

the parking lot piles here from the back to back storms (4 and 10 inches of heavy wet slop) will be around for a long time.  Some of them are 2 stories high in the malls/bigger plazas.  If we didnt get the 10 inch storm the November event would have been our biggest at 6 inches...I remember kidding about it at the time, almost came true and for some areas it did.

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Still piles in the city. Here on the south shore e never had a snow pack because we never really had any snow. Less then 10” for the season total here. Biggest event was 3.5” in November. SE Nassau and Monmouth were the big losers this winter. I give it a D at home and a C at work on 120th and Broadway 

Yeah but we'll be the first ones to have real palm trees that don't die in the winter 

[romba]

4 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Yeah but we'll be the first ones to have real palm trees that don't die in the winter 

Lol but the drastic temp swings seem more in the direction we’re heading. Yes on average the temp is going up, but 70 one week in Jan and then 20 the next is not a healthy recipe for tropical wildlife I would think

[Dan76]

Not for these guy's....middle finger to the cold

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/10/13/freeport-parrot-nest/

[rclab]

54 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Yeah but we'll be the first ones to have real palm trees that don't die in the winter 

I recall reading a speculative article in the pre digital world of over 50 years ago that stated, if the prevailing winds were from the east, considering the Gulf Stream, palm trees could survive the winter at our coastal latitude. Well speculation is fun, sometimes, ignorance is bliss and I did like that last mid century musical, The Most Happy Fella”. Probably, as a result of today’s reality, “Standing on the corner watching all the (persons) go by” might not work as well. As always ...

 

 

[donsutherland1]

A brief spring preview is in order for tomorrow. Temperatures will very likely surge into the 60s as far north as southern New England and to or even above 70° in Washington, D.C.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -14.12 today. It has been negative for 36 out of the last 37 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.990. The AO has now been positive for 35 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 13, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.059 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the March 12-adjusted figure of 1.296. The MJO will likely move into Phase 3 and/or at a low amplitude in the next day or two.

Following tomorrow's warmth, a brief shot of cooler air will move into the East. However, by late next week temperatures could again be rising above seasonal norms.

In part, the forecast strongly positive PNA will contribute to that outcome. Unlike during January and the first half of February, shorter wave lengths now result in the PNA's having a direct relationship with regional temperatures and an inverse relationship with snowfall prospects.

During the March 16-31, 1950-2018 period, the mean temperature in New York City was +1.1° above climatology when the PNA was +1.000 or above. The mean temperature was 0.5° below climatology when the PNA was negative. In terms of snowfall, the frequency of measurable snow events in New York City was somewhat less than half of climatology when the PNA was +1.000 or above while that frequency was just over 40% above climatology when the PNA was negative.

[dWave]

3 hours ago, Dan76 said:

Not for these guy's....middle finger to the cold

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/10/13/freeport-parrot-nest/

These been around for years. They are known to frequently set up shop in the Bx, mainly in Pelham Bay Park (and adjacent neighborhoods) and on City Island. Also known to nest on major bridges, Throgs Neck, Whitestone, etc.

They get noisy as hell too.

[donsutherland1]

53 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

Is this a short duration +PNA or a significant pattern change? 

The PNA+ could last for two weeks.