March, 2019

[Brian5671]

WHO CARES about sun angle, there's no storm to worry about...LOL

[Brian5671]

OT but check out the Euro, 970 low over Western KS.  Wow.

[Rtd208]

Nice day out there today. As much as I love winter I am looking forward to the warmer weather even if it is temporarily interrupted next week.

Current temp 53

[forkyfork]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If you have to worry about sun angle, then it isn’t a big enough snowstorm. We had no problem accumulating midday 4-6-82 with temperatures in the mid 20’s. We mostly have fewer 12” events after 3-15 around the area due to the quickly rising mean temperatures.

corollary: the time of year won't help with a marginal airmass. see january 2008

[JerseyWx]

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

WHO CARES about sun angle, there's no storm to worry about...LOL

True, but it's beyond annoying how much he exaggerates.  August sun angle, really?  Where the heck does he come up with that?

[LibertyBell]

On 3/5/2019 at 7:07 AM, bluewave said:

The 5th snowiest first week of March on record for NYC. Only the 6th time that NYC reached 10” or more of snow for the first week of March.

 

1	1914-03-07	17.8	0
2	1960-03-07	14.8	0
3	2015-03-07	14.1	0
4	1916-03-07	10.8	0
5	2019-03-07	10.4	3
6	1896-03-07	10.0	0

 

 

March 2015 was a lot better.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/5/2019 at 8:31 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The standard deviation adds value. However, seasonal snowfall can fluctuate significantly. The standard deviation for the current base period is almost 18". If one took a half-standard deviation, the values would be 18"-36". During 2000-01 through 2017-18,  5/18 (28%) years fell within that range and 11/18 (61%) seasons fell within one standard deviation of the current mean. That's not bad. In a normal distribution, approximately 31% values lie within one-half standard deviation and 62% lie within one standard deviation.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure the general public would have much comprehension of, let's say, a 9"-45" range as "normal" seasonal snowfall. For many, a fixed number (the mean) is a more comfortable concept than one that involves variability.

Wow that also shows how difficult seasonal snowfall predictions are, the margin of error is large!

[LibertyBell]

On 3/5/2019 at 11:19 AM, weatherpruf said:

You could go with the mode; what is the most common snow amount for winter, or what is the most common amount for a snow event?

well I was thinking about what are the two most common five inch seasonable snowfall ranges(?) and go with those

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Today's sun arc is equivalent to October 2nd in NYC. That's really easy to verify... not sure why the need to exaggerate.

I mean, it doesn't really matter that much to the substance of your point. It's a warm sun this time of year. Just not anywhere close to August.

I dunno, I bet we gained about a months worth of sun angle with the clocks moving ahead...

The snow stake  is down to 3” IMBY. 

[Juliancolton]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

I dunno, I bet we gained about a months worth of sun angle with the clocks moving ahead...

The snow stake  is down to 3” IMBY. 

That extra daylight could plague us year-round in the near future.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Juliancolton said:

That extra daylight could plague us year-round in the near future.

 

It's actually a good thing to do it- or just keep standard time year round.  The time changes twice a year result in a significant increase in traffic accidents, heart attacks, strokes, etc.

BTW- one guess what the only other nation is that has year round DST ;-)

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

True, but it's beyond annoying how much he exaggerates.  August sun angle, really?  Where the heck does he come up with that?

By the end of this month, there will be a late August sun angle

[Juliancolton]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's actually a good thing to do it- or just keep standard time year round.  The time changes twice a year result in a significant increase in traffic accidents, heart attacks, strokes, etc.

BTW- one guess what the only other nation is that has year round DST ;-)

The year-round DST rejoicing will end quite quickly when the proletariat realize that it means waiting for the school bus in pitch blackness for months and months and months...

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro control run fans get some day 10 action.

If something like that came to pass, it would be a nice score for some of the long-range specialists who highlighted that period as early as late Feb... maybe even before that.

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro control run fans get some day 10 action.

 

Too bad, it's the control.

[tdp146]

16 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The year-round DST rejoicing will end quite quickly when the proletariat realize that it means waiting for the school bus in pitch blackness for months and months and months...

If something like that came to pass, it would be a nice score for some of the long-range specialists who highlighted that period as early as late Feb... maybe even before that.

Yeah. The sun wouldn’t crack the horizon until 8AM or later for all of December and January 

[Juliancolton]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

By the end of this month, there will be a late August sun angle

The March 31 sun angle corresponds to September 12, about 4.5 degrees lower than on August 31. I reiterate that this is quantifiable and readily available info, so we don't need to generalize or make intuitive guesses.

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The October sun angle was the end of February 

The very late-October sun angle began in mid-February yes. Key word being very late. But that doesn't miraculously end winter. There is a lag in temperatures, hence why our lowest averages are in mid/late January and not mid/late December even though 'sun angle' is increasing. Same with summer maximums being highest in mid/late July. 

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

By the end of this month, there will be a late August sun angle

None of this is correct. You are not even calculating it correctly. You are arguing about it yet the link provided above has a fairly accurate representation of how you calculate it. We are approaching the vernal equinox (March 20). By definition the sun angle on that date matches the autumnal equinox (September 23rd). So heading into the spring equinox you are subtracting days from the winter solstice if you want to get the fall equivalent. So no we cannot have a sun angle of late August by the end of March, a mere few days after the sun angle is equal to September 23rd. I do lecture on this in my ecology class at the university. 

[BombsAway1288]

2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

True, but it's beyond annoying how much he exaggerates.  August sun angle, really?  Where the heck does he come up with that?

Exactly. He's full of nothing but hot air and hyperbole. Every single post is an exaggeration to warmth. Full of fake news.

Late August sun is equal to mid-March sun?  What a clown! Just another one of the 100's of troll posts.

If he's going to troll, lets at least hope he gets his facts straight lol

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

By the end of this month, there will be a late August sun angle

 

32 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The March 31 sun angle corresponds to September 12, about 4.5 degrees lower than on August 31. I reiterate that this is quantifiable and readily available info, so we don't need to generalize or make intuitive guesses.

Haha, wrong again. 

Shocker!

Seriously, why for the sake of this sub-forum is this allowed to continue year after year? I know he's already 5-posted but obviously it still doesn't make a difference. The trolling and fake news from him continues

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The year-round DST rejoicing will end quite quickly when the proletariat realize that it means waiting for the school bus in pitch blackness for months and months and months...

If something like that came to pass, it would be a nice score for some of the long-range specialists who highlighted that period as early as late Feb... maybe even before that.

I dont like DST either- it doesn't save anything, we merely keep the lights on an hour longer in the morning.

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

By the end of this month, there will be a late August sun angle

I dont know why that even matters, most of us remember a nice 4-8" snowfall that occurred during an all day snowstorm on April 7, 2003.  If not, I have the pictures to prove it

We had 8 inches here right down to the south shore!

And just last year we had 6 inches on April 2nd.  Got some nice images of that day time snowstorm too!

 

 

[BombsAway1288]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont like DST either- it doesn't save anything, we merely keep the lights on an hour longer in the morning.

 

It's all relative person to person, really. If you're an early riser or someone that needs to be on the road by 6am for work, you probably don't like the late sunrises. On the other hand, a lot of other people (myself included) love the later sunsets. The only thing I hate about Winter is that it's dark by 445-5pm.

The whole kids waiting in the dark for the bus pickup argument is probably one of the biggest factors against this possible move. I do think that whole scope of that argument will slowly switch/go away at some point in the future due to schools having a later start time for students which has been happening more and more, albeit slowly, around the county

[BombsAway1288]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont know why that even matters, most of us remember a nice 4-8" snowfall that occurred during an all day snowstorm on April 7, 2003.  If not, I have the pictures to prove it

We had 8 inches here right down to the south shore!

And just last year we had 6 inches on April 2nd.  Got some nice images of that day time snowstorm too!

 

 

Nope! Can't happen! The late-July sun angle by early April makes it impossible for snow to stick during the daylight at 40N.

[Brian5671]

59 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It's all relative person to person, really. If you're an early riser or someone that needs to be on the road by 6am for work, you probably don't like the late sunrises. On the other hand, a lot of other people (myself included) love the later sunsets. The only thing I hate about Winter is that it's dark by 445-5pm.

The whole kids waiting in the dark for the bus pickup argument is probably one of the biggest factors against this possible move. I do think that whole scope of that argument will slowly switch/go away at some point in the future due to schools having a later start time for students which has been happening more and more, albeit slowly, around the county

No one's ever mentioned it, but turn the clocks ahead 30 minutes and leave it...that would be a split b/w the 2.    

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

By the end of this month, there will be a late August sun angle

The August sun angle doesn't arrive until April.

[donsutherland1]

The March 1-10 average temperature in New York City was 32.3° (7.0° below normal). That was the coldest opening 10 days of the month since 1996 when the mean temperature was just 29.3°. Last year, the mean temperature for the first 10 days of March was 39.4°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.50°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.00°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.69°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March.

The SOI was -16.61 today. It has been negative for 33 out of the last 34 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.637. The AO has now been positive for 32 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the April 13, 2018 through June 3, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 52 consecutive days. Historic probabilities favor the continuation of a predominantly positive AO through the remainder of March.

On March 10, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.796 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the March 9-adjusted figure of 2.093. The MJO could lose amplitude in coming days as it heads back toward Phase 3. As the seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes, there is a distinct possibility that it could reach Phase 3 at a high amplitude. Afterward, there is some possibility it could reach Phase 2 before resuming forward progression. However, based on historic experience, it is more likely than not that the MJO won't go all the way back to Phase 2.

Temperatures will likely remain generally above normal through the next 5-8 days across much of the region. The warmth could peak around mid-month with the potential for readings in the 60s extending as far north as southern New England and 70s into the greater Washington, DC area.

Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal into the closing week of the month. At that point, there could be some possibility for another measurable snowfall in at least parts of the region.

However, the probability of a shorter cool period has increased in recent days. A growing body of the latest guidance now suggests that the cooler period will likely be short-lived. Both the EPS and CFSv2 weekly data have moved into agreement that warmer than normal conditions could return near March 24. The 12z EPS is particularly aggressive with the warmth near the end of the month.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It's all relative person to person, really. If you're an early riser or someone that needs to be on the road by 6am for work, you probably don't like the late sunrises. On the other hand, a lot of other people (myself included) love the later sunsets. The only thing I hate about Winter is that it's dark by 445-5pm.

The whole kids waiting in the dark for the bus pickup argument is probably one of the biggest factors against this possible move. I do think that whole scope of that argument will slowly switch/go away at some point in the future due to schools having a later start time for students which has been happening more and more, albeit slowly, around the county

There might be later start times for older students, as they need more rest ( this is a fact ) and earlier start times for younger students ( grade school ). Right now it's backwards; my HS daughter starts at 6:50, elementary starts at 8:50. Districts also like to stagger their bus routes, so someone will be starting early. This way the same driver came make multiple runs. But it's not just kids waiting in the dark; quite a few will be walking in the dark. We tried this in the 70's; we'd watch the sunrise during first period....

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There might be later start times for older students, as they need more rest ( this is a fact ) and earlier start times for younger students ( grade school ). Right now it's backwards; my HS daughter starts at 6:50, elementary starts at 8:50. Districts also like to stagger their bus routes, so someone will be starting early. This way the same driver came make multiple runs. But it's not just kids waiting in the dark; quite a few will be walking in the dark. We tried this in the 70's; we'd watch the sunrise during first period....

the other issue is HS sports-they need to be out early to practice-go to games etc.  (at least that's what I've heard here)

[CIK62]

The next 12 months are all AN as always.   During the last 65 months the AN are 2:1 over BN here .    Blue is banned nationwide for the next 12 months.   Four months should sneak in with BN's here anyway.    Your job is to guess which ones.    Even Nov.  -3 3, was progged AN all through Oct.    So anything can happen.

LR forecasting is non-statistically supported.

I said it before, just keep saying  the next 30 days are going to be AN and you will look smart to the layman..   

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is -5.9[33.5].     Should be -2.1[38.3] by the 20th.