H2Otown_WX Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/10/2019 at 10:03 PM, bluewave said: 2016 was the lone example of record warmth in March since 2013. That was the only time that Newark reached 80 degrees during the previous 6 Marches. But Newark reached 80 degrees for the first time last February. The 68 the first week of this February was 1 degree of the week 1 record of 69 degrees. The 74 in February 2017 was the 3rd highest for the month of February. Expand Ah, I had forgotten about March 2013-2015. I couldn't remember what they were like...thanks for the time series. Is it unusual for Newark to not reach 80 in March? I'm guessing it happened a few times in the late 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/10/2019 at 11:53 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I doubt it will switch to below average. late March will probably overperform temperature wise. Expand You don't know that. The first 10 days have been well below normal, the next 7 days should be slightly above normal except for Friday which could be well above normal in the 60's. It then looks like temps will drop below normal after the 18th thru the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/10/2019 at 7:18 PM, bluewave said: Looks like clouds and scattered showers may limit the high temperature potential later this week. We had full sun that maximized our early February warm up. Overperforming February warm ups and underperforming ones in March has been a common theme recently. Expand They did today. Only reached the low 40s, ten degrees below forecast. I think we'll see a lot of these kinds of days March-May. Canada is cold with well AN snows and highs pressing from our NE have been a common occurrence. SSTs to our E/NE are near to BN as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -7.0[32.3]. Should be -1.7[38.3] by the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 9:33 AM, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -7.0[32.3]. Should be -1.7[38.3] by the 19th. Expand what a cold first 10 days of March!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Yesterday, it hit 59 at my house. I decided to go take the truck out onto IBSP and see if I could get some cool pictures of the fog over there. It was 39 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 11:43 AM, Brian5671 said: what a cold first 10 days of March!!! Expand About the only part of their post that is accurate. Using the 00z EPS, I'm calculating average temps at NYC are ~1.5F below normal today through the 19th. There are more below normal than above normal days in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Still watching for the potential of a coastal around the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 9:33 AM, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 46degs., or 5degs. AN. Month to date is -7.0[32.3]. Should be -1.7[38.3] by the 19th. Expand FYI, the Central Park normal temperature for the 3/1-19 period is 40.6°, making the 3/19 anomaly 2.3° below normal. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycmar.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 1:00 AM, SnoSki14 said: They did today. Only reached the low 40s, ten degrees below forecast. I think we'll see a lot of these kinds of days March-May. Canada is cold with well AN snows and highs pressing from our NE have been a common occurrence. SSTs to our E/NE are near to BN as well. Expand It was the first time since 2001 that Newark didn’t reach 50 degrees between March 1st and 10th. Nearly the opposite of the first 10 days of February when Newark had the 2nd highest temperature on record. An impressive 68 high for this period in February vs only 49 in March. Coldest March 1-10 maximum temperatures at Newark 1 1960-03-10 36 0 2 1978-03-10 42 0 - 1940-03-10 42 0 4 1969-03-10 44 0 - 1952-03-10 44 0 - 1931-03-10 44 0 7 1984-03-10 45 0 - 1957-03-10 45 0 9 1989-03-10 46 0 10 1947-03-10 47 0 11 2019-03-10 49 0 - 2001-03-10 49 0 Warmest February 1-10 maximum temperature at Newark 1 2008-02-10 69 0 - 1991-02-10 69 0 3 2019-02-10 68 0 - 1989-02-10 68 0 5 2017-02-10 65 0 6 2012-02-10 64 0 7 2006-02-10 63 0 - 1990-02-10 63 0 - 1965-02-10 63 0 10 1988-02-10 62 0 - 1983-02-10 62 0 - 1973-02-10 62 0 - 1933-02-10 62 0 14 2001-02-10 61 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 12:30 PM, Snow88 said: Still watching for the potential of a coastal around the 20thSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 12:30 PM, Snow88 said: Still watching for the potential of a coastal around the 20th Expand If only 00Z CMC would verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Up to a toasty 46, alot of the remaining snowcover should melt today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 2:00 PM, psv88 said: Up to a toasty 46, alot of the remaining snowcover should melt today. Expand NAM only had me getting up to 43 today, it’s already 47. Could be a positive temp bust day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 48 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 12:43 PM, donsutherland1 said: FYI, the Central Park normal temperature for the 3/1-19 period is 40.6°, making the 3/19 anomaly 2.3° below normal. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycmar.pdf Expand I use weighted averages. (10/18)(-7) +(8/18)(+5) = -1.7. Problem is GFSx does not match your normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 3:48 PM, CIK62 said: I use weighted averages. (10/18)(-7) +(8/18)(+5) = -1.7. Problem is GFSx does not match your normals. Expand Thanks. I'm not sure why there is somewhat of a difference between the normals shown by NWS-Upton and the MOS. I suspect the MOS is using a slightly different base and/or unsmoothed numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Models are really backing off on the colder pattern for the week of March 17th. Looks like just a return to cooler near normal temps, which means highs near 50. That cold/snowy first week of March was probably out last wintry week. Spring looks to settle in nicely, unlike like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 5:20 PM, winterwx21 said: Models are really backing off on the colder pattern for the week of March 17th. Looks like just a return to cooler near normal temps, which means highs near 50. That cold/snowy first week of March was probably out last wintry week. Spring looks to settle in nicely, unlike like last year. Expand yep, might be finished which is fine with me especially after Saturday's today's warmth-feels great. Funny the models end with what they did all winter-show a wintry cold pattern only to back off at the end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 2:10 PM, Sn0waddict said: NAM only had me getting up to 43 today, it’s already 47. Could be a positive temp bust day? Expand 52 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 5:36 PM, Brian5671 said: 52 here. Expand Real nice day compared to last week. Back to cooler weather for a couple days tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2019 Author Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 5:36 PM, Brian5671 said: yep, might be finished which is fine with me especially after Saturday's today's warmth-feels great. Funny the models end with what they did all winter-show a wintry cold pattern only to back off at the end.... Expand Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 5:52 PM, snowman19 said: Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm Expand March overall is a gamble for snow after the 1st 10 days or so. Last March we lucked out with an incredible NAO block and good cold air. (An example of a SSW that worked for us-unlike this year) Locally we got lucky with a decent pattern for snow 2/10-3/3 and somehow mananged to get to average snow after a horrid Dec/Jan and part of Feb.... Saw a few snow events and some snow on snow with airmasses just cold enough to support snow. A truly forgetable winter for sure overall and an analog hopefully we don't see show up ever again. - in the meantime, let's torch!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 5:52 PM, snowman19 said: Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm Expand The cold pattern for the first week of March did materialize and we got 2 snowstorms out of it, which you ended up being wrong about. That week salvaged the winter for me. Instead of way below normal snowfall, that week brought us up to only slightly below normal snowfall for the winter. It was nice to have snow stay on the ground for an entire week too, which doesn't happen very often that late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 6:14 PM, winterwx21 said: The cold pattern for the first week of March did materialize and we got 2 snowstorms out of it, which you ended up being wrong about. That week salvaged the winter for me. Instead of way below normal snowfall, that week brought us up to only slightly below normal snowfall for the winter. It was nice to have snow stay on the ground for an entire week too, which doesn't happen very often that late in the season. Expand yeah the post storm arctic airmass turned it into cement. The parking lot piles here will be around for some time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 6:05 PM, Brian5671 said: March overall is a gamble for snow after the 1st 10 days or so. Last March we lucked out with an incredible NAO block and good cold air. (An example of a SSW that worked for us-unlike this year) Locally we got lucky with a decent pattern for snow 2/10-3/3 and somehow mananged to get to average snow after a horrid Dec/Jan and part of Feb.... Saw a few snow events and some snow on snow with airmasses just cold enough to support snow. A truly forgetable winter for sure overall and an analog hopefully we don't see show up ever again. - in the meantime, let's torch!!!! Expand Whats amazing is we are approx. Only 8 inches from normal with all that happened. Imagine we had a fluke storm that got us to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 5:52 PM, snowman19 said: Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm Expand Early to mid March would be like early to mid October sun angle... this is the week where we finally get to 12 hours of light and 12 hours of dark. First day of spring is March 20 and first day of autumn is September 23rd. By definition those are the days with the same sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2019 Author Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 6:54 PM, JustinRP37 said: Early to mid March would be like early to mid October sun angle... this is the week where we finally get to 12 hours of light and 12 hours of dark. First day of spring is March 20 and first day of autumn is September 23rd. By definition those are the days with the same sun angle. Expand The October sun angle was the end of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 For sun intensity equivalents http://windowseat.ca/sun/ March 11 sun equals Oct 1 sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/11/2019 at 6:59 PM, snowman19 said: The October sun angle was the end of February Expand Today's sun arc is equivalent to October 2nd in NYC. That's really easy to verify... not sure why the need to exaggerate. I mean, it doesn't really matter that much to the substance of your point. It's a warm sun this time of year. Just not anywhere close to August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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