Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Current temp is 18 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Had a dusting of snow overnight. Current temp is 9.8° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 11 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Bottomed out at 11.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 We finally got the cold and snowy El Niño Modoki conditions that the long range seasonal models were anticipating for this winter. I guess this is an example of better late than never. Also notice how we had the most negative February SOI on record following such a positive December reading. ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 More than a dusting here, easily over 1/2" and it's still under 15*. Snow 6 out of 7 days and crazy low temps at this point in the season is pretty cool. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Based on the MOS, there's a chance that Central Park's high temperature will remain below 30° today. The last March maximum temperature below 30° in New York City occurred on March 15, 2017 when the temperature topped out at 26°. That was also New York City's last subfreezing maximum temperature in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 With the final Arctic Oscillation (AO) data in for February and the preliminary data for March, the current stretch of positive AO days is 27. That streak began one day earlier than had been shown in the preliminary February data. Overall, the AO averaged +0.144 during the December-February period. 52% of days had values > 0 and 47% of days had figures < 0. There was one day with a value of 0.000. In addition, 29% of days had values of +1.000 or above while 23% days had values of -1.000 or below. Both the highest and lowest AO readings occurred in February. The lowest figure was -3.315, which occurred on February 1. The highest figure was +3.354, which occurred on February 19. For those keeping track, the 27 consecutive days of positive values is the longest such stretch since the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days from August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Well, the 12Z GFS, FV3, and NAM are all showing an inch or so for Friday late afternoon/evening (it better be after 4-5 pm if we want accumulations without heavy snow in March), while the CMC shows very little. The GFS, FV3 and CMC also all show some decent snowfall at the beginning of the Sat night/Sunday storm, with several inches possible well to the NW of 95 (like NW of 287/80 and N of the Tappan Zee), with the FV3 (of course, bringing decent snowfall the closest to the 95 corridor). So some mild interest in tracking these, although I doubt we get much from either system along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 just need 0.7" to get to 20", let's do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 I don’t even look at the FV3 anymore. That model hasn’t been worth a damn all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 We have a chance of some snow on Friday and just before the cutter especially north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Very cold out with flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 This 27 degree air feels like 37 under the March sun. Bottomed out at 19 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Cfa said: This 27 degree air feels like 37 under the March sun. Bottomed out at 19 this morning. No it definitely feels like 27 or 25 at least over here. Gusty winds adding to the chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: We have a chance of some snow on Friday and just before the cutter especially north and west of the city. I need less than 1" to reach 40" for the season. I'm confident that will happen some time from now to early April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: No it definitely feels like 27 or 25 at least over here. Gusty winds adding to the chill. Feels like a mid Jan day with ice pack OTG. Can't believe how fast the weather changes around here. It feels plenty cold, and the snow mounds from plowing are huge, because the ones from Sat didn't melt and got piled on again Sunday night. Can barely see the stop sign down the street the mound is so high. Basically 10-12 inches in two days in some parts, more in others. Surprisingly, friends in Old Bridge didn't even know we had close to 5 inches up here Sat, and that's only 20 mins away to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Pattern looks really good towards the 20th with the PNA riding and falling AO and EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Pattern looks really good towards the 20th with the PNA riding and falling AO and EPO. Just in time for a cold spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 48 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Pattern looks really good towards the 20th with the PNA riding and falling AO and EPO. A “really good” pattern possibly developing March 20th (Equinox)? Too little, too late. We’re not at Canada’s latitude 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Current temp is 13° with close to a foot of snow on the ground. Looks and feels like early February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrapin8100 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 36 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A “really good” pattern possibly developing March 20th (Equinox)? Too little, too late. We’re not at Canada’s latitude It can snow after March 20th: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/DailyHighestSnowfall.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, terrapin8100 said: It can snow after March 20th: https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/DailyHighestSnowfall.pdf Where in my post did I say it can’t snow after the 20th? It can and has. That wasn’t the point. The point was ‘a really good’ winter pattern developing come March 20th. That would be the problem right there. It’s spring at that point. It’s not Nov 20th or Dec 20th or Jan 20th, or even Feb 20th, it’s March. At our latitude. You have a late August/early September sun angle overhead at that point, climatology fighting you, length of day fighting you. Time to realize, winter’s days are numbered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: Decent long range signal for a major storm of some type around the the start of spring on the 20th. Very high astronomical tides with the full moon on March 21st. I wonder if we can manage to maintain the streak of wintry events on or near the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Today's high temperature in Central Park was 26°. That was the first subfreezing March high temperature and coldest March maximum reading since March 15, 2017 when the temperature also topped out at 26°. The low temperature of 19° was also New York City's coldest March temperature since March 12, 2017 when the temperature fell to 19°. Tomorrow morning could see a similar or somewhat colder minimum temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.40°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.10°C for the week centered around February 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential some additional warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks. The SOI was -8.66 today. It has been negative for 28 out of the last 29 days. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.744. The AO has now been positive for 27 consecutive days. The last time the AO was positive for at least that long was during the August 6, 2018 through September 4, 2018 period when the AO was positive for 30 consecutive days. On March 5, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.558 (RMM). The amplitude was little changed from the March 4-adjusted figure of 2.527. The MJO will likely advance toward Phase 4 over the next 1-3 days. There is some uncertainty as to whether it will reach Phase 4 or head toward lower amplitudes. The seasonal tendency has favored high amplitudes and recent guidance suggests that the probability of its reaching Phase 4 has increased. After perhaps a period of light snow or flurries late Friday or Friday night, temperatures will very likely warm up during the coming weekend. Readings could remain warmer than normal for at least 7-10 days, limiting opportunities for snowfall. Beyond that, the possibility exists for a return to cooler temperatures relative to normal during the closing 7-10 days of the month. Finally, since 1869, New York City has had 10 cases during the March 1-7 period when 6.0" or more snow fell and the average temperature was 32.0° or below. All 10 cases had additional measurable snowfall afterward, including 8 cases with measurable snowfall in April. Mean and median snowfall from March 8-April 30 was 9.1". Lowest snowfall during that period was 0.5" in 1893. Highest snowfall during that period was 18.5" in 1875. 60% of the cases saw 6" or more total snowfall during that period. Mean April snowfall for those cases was 4.0" while median April snowfall was 2.8". Should measurable snow be recorded in April, 2019 would be the second consecutive year with measurable April snowfall. Last year, a storm brought 5.5" snow to New York City on April 2. The last time New York City saw two consecutive years with measurable snow in April occurred in 2003 and 2004. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 1 hour ago, sussexcountyobs said: Looks and feels like early February. Well... in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 18F. Full snowpack. Beautiful winter evening. But the sun angle is really starting to shrink things despite the cold...Spring is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 15* and clear with light winds and snow pack. Winter is not over yet especially in HV. Would not be surprised to see 1-3 inches of snow Saturday night and Sunday morning before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Starting to think North and West may do well early Sunday morning, if precip falls overnight it comes in like a wall could easily be several inches before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Current temp is 19 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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