winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 6:38 PM, SnoSki14 said: Then again we were supposed to get a huge cutter this week and that's not happening. So I'm gonna wait and see a couple more cycles. Also watching the Saturday system, I wouldn't be surprised if that drops a few inches on us. Expand Thursday night into friday morning might be our best chance. NAM has a 3 inch snowfall for central Jersey and RGEM is close too. Just need a tiny nudge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 EURO has been unreliable this week. The Saturday storm (which is no longer) was an inch of rain just 2 days ago. The ensembles should be interesting. The GEFS and GEPS are all offshore near the BM with not even one member running inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 6:56 PM, winterwx21 said: Thursday night into friday morning might be our best chance. NAM has a 3 inch snowfall for central Jersey and RGEM is close too. Just need a tiny nudge north. Expand The Euro came way north for Friday but is mostly still a miss. Would need continued north pushes on that closer to what the NAM has had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:14 PM, snowman19 said: No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario and IMO the most likely for Monday Expand The best part right now is how the area gets missed north tonight and missed south Friday. Would be remarkable if again we see the PHL-NYC snow hole happen with two events within 3 days. I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday. It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade. Even so the system may track too close for the area to see entirely snow regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:17 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The best part right now is how the area gets missed north tonight and missed south Friday. Would be remarkable if again we see the PHL-NYC snow hole happen with two events within 3 days. I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday. It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade. Even so the system may track too close for the area to see entirely snow regardless. Expand it's amazing. can't even get a decent event by accident....even the duds of 01-02 and 11-12 had a good January storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:17 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The best part right now is how the area gets missed north tonight and missed south Friday. Would be remarkable if again we see the PHL-NYC snow hole happen with two events within 3 days. I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday. It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade. Even so the system may track too close for the area to see entirely snow regardless. Expand Agree 100 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:14 PM, snowman19 said: No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday Expand GFS, Para, CMC, and Euro all have a significant event late Sunday/Monday. Still too early for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:27 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: GFS, Para, CMC, and Euro all have a significant event late Sunday/Monday. Still too early for details. Expand I think its a good idea to pay more attention to the Ensembles ……….because as noted by SnowGoose "I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday. It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade" and the other models OP runs are also less then reliable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:30 PM, NEG NAO said: I think its a good idea to pay more attention to the Ensembles ……….because as noted by SnowGoose "I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday. It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade" and the other models OP runs are also less then reliable... Expand The 12Z EPS on preliminary panel looks to be flatter on Monday than the Op. Right now I would just root for something good to come out of Friday or Saturday because those potential events impact what Monday does somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:30 PM, NEG NAO said: I think its a good idea to pay more attention to the Ensembles ……….because as noted by SnowGoose "I think the Euro is way too amped on Monday. It’s classic Op Euro bias since the upgrade" and the other models OP runs are also less then reliable... Expand I believe ensembles also look good for a wintry event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 15Z SREF just jumped on Friday. It’s a SE PA C-SNJ max but it had virtually squat on the 09Z run. That said the NAM will probably go south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:45 PM, SnowGoose69 said: 15Z SREF just jumped on Friday. It’s a SE PA C-SNJ max but it had virtually squat on the 09Z run. That said the NAM will probably go south now Expand Was suspicious of the NAM because of that, but now it seems like it may be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:14 PM, snowman19 said: No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday Expand You seen the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 8:14 PM, WEATHERMINATOR said: You seen the eps Expand I have, and there are several members leaning NW of the mean. My views have not changed at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:45 PM, SnowGoose69 said: 15Z SREF just jumped on Friday. It’s a SE PA C-SNJ max but it had virtually squat on the 09Z run. That said the NAM will probably go south now Expand Nam didn't go south at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 12Z EURO ensembles improved from 0Z...much better than operational run. Not a bad place to be 4 plus days out IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 8:40 PM, NEG NAO said: Nam didn't go south at 18Z Expand It didn't go south but it's much drier. This 18z run gives a 1 inch snowfall for much of NJ, while the 12z run was 3 inches for central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 8:44 PM, winterwx21 said: It didn't go south but it's much drier. This 18z run gives a 1 inch snowfall for much of NJ, while the 12z run was 3 inches for central NJ. Expand It’s more consolidated meaning the precipitation shield is bigger which we needed if you want snow in New York City. Albeit it’ll be an inch or so but that plus Monday it’s looking very interesting times for tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Icon is a foot of snow for Central Park. Very impressive snowstorm sunday night and moves out by Monday at 7-8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 9:42 PM, WEATHERMINATOR said: Icon is a foot of snow for Central Park. Very impressive snowstorm sunday night and moves out by Monday at 7-8am Expand You have to give pause that it's the ICON though. I would love that solution as much as you guys but sadly, it's the ICON showing that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 9:50 PM, BombsAway1288 said: You have to give pause that it's the ICON though. I would love that solution as much as you guys but sadly, it's the ICON showing that right now Expand ITs the same track as the eps and eps is the best model. In fact the eps is a bit southeast of the icon so that gives you that extra 50-60 miles of leeway for Long Island to enjoy a mostly snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 9:52 PM, WEATHERMINATOR said: ITs the same track as the eps and eps is the best model. In fact the eps is a bit southeast of the icon so that gives you that extra 50-60 miles of leeway for Long Island to enjoy a mostly snow event Expand also if we do have snow cover Monday its not going to quickly melt because most of next week temps will be below to well below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 GFS gets pushed east a little too early, but decent run and exactly what we wanted to see after the EURO. GFS has a huge amount of cold air coming in as the storm hits and thats what shuns it a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 9:52 PM, WEATHERMINATOR said: ITs the same track as the eps and eps is the best model. In fact the eps is a bit southeast of the icon so that gives you that extra 50-60 miles of leeway for Long Island to enjoy a mostly snow event Expand It is. The track is perfect just like the EPS. Just need the global OP's to hop on board although in a winter like this with so many last minute changes, I'm not too sure I would want to be in the OP's bullseye 4-5 days out. The EPS? That's a different story. Put me in the bullseye of that any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 10:07 PM, mikem81 said: GFS gets pushed east a little too early, but decent run and exactly what we wanted to see after the EURO. GFS has a huge amount of cold air coming in as the storm hits and thats what shuns it a bit east. Expand Honestly bro that’s as best as it’s going to get because it’s a fast mover. edit: gfs FV3 is a stronger storm and closer to coast, doesn’t look like any rain for the immediate nyc region but Long Island switches over. Too far to be looking at that now. Very nice pattern coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 18z runs were fun. Fv3 is pretty damn close to the often confused ICON, maybe the blind can lead the blind. OP GFS is nice as well. Would be an epic threading of the needle given the poor teles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 7:14 PM, snowman19 said: No -NAO, SE ridge flexes, no -AO to lock the TPV in SE Canada, the TPV stretches and lifts north because there’s no AO block, storm will cut just like the Euro showed. Very believable scenario (cutter, rain) and IMO the most likely for Monday Expand Not necessarily, a lack of blocking in a -EPO pattern also leads to very progressive systems, which can sometimes work out for us. Blocking can even occasionally cause a storm to get overamped and cut inland vs a more progressive scenario. It'll also be March where shortening wave lengths render the AO mute. The Euro looks way too amped to me, ensembles are much flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 10:26 PM, Ericjcrash said: 18z runs were fun. Fv3 is pretty damn close to the often confused ICON, maybe the blind can lead the blind. OP GFS is nice as well. Would be an epic threading of the needle given the poor teles. Expand Ensembles look nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERMINATOR Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/27/2019 at 11:21 PM, Snow88 said: Ensembles look nice Expand Classic i95 DC to Boston shellacking. benchmark track wins, we win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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