Buffalo Bumble Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 No major damage to report so far here in Amherst/Snyder. Good trends showing up for next weekend. I'll take a wiff wide right at this point over another cutter and high winds. Hopefully the trends hold and we get something to track this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 On a good note looks like we missed any real extreme destruction with this storm. Cool sights down by the lake. This video from Fort Erie was really impressive!!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Forecast uncertainty increases by Wednesday. The GFS has been very persistent over the past few days in bringing a notable clipper system across the Great Lakes, with a shield of accumulating snow crossing our region. The ECMWF has been equally persistent in keeping this feature much weaker and suppressed, with no more than a few light snow showers in our area. The Canadian GEM continues to be a compromise solution with a light snowfall across the region. Given the continued model uncertainty, will keep POPS in the chance range for now. If this snow does materialize, it will end later Wednesday night as the system moves to the eastern seaboard. A strengthening area of low pressure will track from the western Ohio Valley and cross the Central Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday afternoon. With this system precipitation will overspread the area, initially as snow then changing to rain as warm air advection increases ahead of an accompanying cold front. Winds behind this area of low pressure will increase and wind headlines may be needed for Sunday. Behind this area of low pressure a large trough will persist through this time period with the potential for snow showers across the area and lake effect snow off of both lakes, especially the more ice free Lake Ontario, where a multi lake connection looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Water level at Toledo continues to drop now more than 2 feet below LWD and Buffalo continues to bounce around the 100” mark.Flash Flood Warning now for a large Ice Jam setting up in the Niagara River near the power plant. Sections of the boom were seen floating down the river...Surge has really pushed up the water level in the Buffalo River and is very close to flooding into portions of the first ward and river works park area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Glad to hear you Buffalo guys didn't get too much damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Forecast uncertainty increases by Wednesday. The GFS has been very persistent over the past few days in bringing a notable clipper system across the Great Lakes, with a shield of accumulating snow crossing our region. The ECMWF has been equally persistent in keeping this feature much weaker and suppressed, with no more than a few light snow showers in our area. The Canadian GEM continues to be a compromise solution with a light snowfall across the region. Given the continued model uncertainty, will keep POPS in the chance range for now. If this snow does materialize, it will end later Wednesday night as the system moves to the eastern seaboard. A strengthening area of low pressure will track from the western Ohio Valley across northern Pennsylvania and cross the Central Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday afternoon. With this system precipitation snow will overspread the area, initially as snow then changing to rain as warm air advection increases ahead of an accompanying cold front with the potential for significant accumulations across the entire American Weather Forum, Upstate NY region. Winds behind this area of low pressure will increase and wind headlines may be needed for Sunday. Behind this area of low pressure a large trough will persist through this time period with the potential for snow showers across the area and lake effect snow off of both lakes, especially the more ice free Lake Ontario, where a multi lake connection looks possible. After months of frustration, TugHill Matt will end his season with a bang, setting a record for a March lake effect event. Fixed. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Shows over in regards to the damaging wind potential. One disappointed wind enthusiast here. Still will be a nice long night of roaring gusts though I'm back to tracking nuisance snow events that turn into rain again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 25 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Fixed. I like that discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Shows over in regards to the damaging wind potential. One disappointed wind enthusiast here. Still will be a nice long night of roaring gusts though I'm back to tracking nuisance snow events that turn into rain again! Why's the show over? Strongest winds aloft passed by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Thought the worst of it was coming overnight into Monday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, vortmax said: Why's the show over? Strongest winds aloft passed by? i think the only way you get 75mph gusts around here from a storm like this is through diurnal mixing. We needed that frontal passage to happen at 9am and then some clearing around noon with breaks of sun. It will still be awesomely windy overnight, but the loss of daylight and also the loss of Lake Erie funneling as winds veer means that the highest risk portion of the event is probably passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Highest winds still to come overnight roc area gust to 70 possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 The ice boom broke. When is the last time that has happened? An entire lake full of ice is heading upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The ice boom broke. When is the last time that has happened? An entire lake full of ice is heading upstream. Get some pics tomorrow if you can. Theres going to be crazy ice formations all over. Wonder how big a jam will form further downstream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Highest winds still to come overnight roc area gust to 70 possible I would be pleasantly surprised. I'm holding out some hope that we might get some good gusts again once the winds are more NW and Lake Ontario can come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The ice boom broke. When is the last time that has happened? An entire lake full of ice is heading upstream. Right now there has only been one of the pontoons spotted down stream. It’s not uncommon for 1 or 2 to come loose during an ice seiche. Won’t know the full damage done till tomorrow when the water level recedes and the boom cones back to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Right now there has only been one of the pontoons spotted down stream. It’s not uncommon for 1 or 2 to come loose during an ice seiche. Won’t know the full damage done till tomorrow when the water level recedes and the boom cones back to the surface. This article says 7 were seen near grand island, and holy smokes is that a lot of ice! I would have to assume the whole thing failed fairly catastrophically. https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/ice-boom-in-lake-erie-breaks-due-to-winds/71-4962175a-d5b1-4e8c-bfc0-65db04a7544c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Welp, BUF snowfall map keeps shrinking higher totals and moving them farther north. I shouldn't be shocked. Saw this coming days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Right now there has only been one of the pontoons spotted down stream. It’s not uncommon for 1 or 2 to come loose during an ice seiche. Won’t know the full damage done till tomorrow when the water level recedes and the boom cones back to the surface. The whole thing broke off according to the news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 I’m sure if I was out chasing I would have been more impressed especially down by the lakeshore with all the crazy ice formations but driving from Buffalo through Cheektowaga, West Seneca, then into Hamburg I’ve seen very minimal damage. Winds were strong no doubt but to me this was a bust here when all models and the NWS had 4-6 hours of frequent gust above 70 mph and I’m not sure anywhere in WNY besides IAG even gusted over 70 let alone did it for hours straight. Think most gust were in the 60-65mph range which is still strong but the difference in damage from 60-65 to 75+ is quite large and I think we all relatively dodged a bullet wrt damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 The whole thing broke off according to the news I’d be really surprised to see the whole thing gone tomorrow. It’s designed to sink under the water during a seiche and let the ice flow over. I guess maybe a whole section could have come lose but I think most of it will resurface. Here is a clip from the seiche last year. 2 or 3 individual pontoons came loose during that storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Great video from the Niagara River. They caught a pretty big section of the boom floating down stream. Wish I would have went up there but all day they said the park was closed off... . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Blizzard like in Rochester now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Wind doesn't seem as bad as I thought it would be, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Blowing harder here than it has all day. BUF gusting over 60 mph last ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Some videos clips and pictures from earlier today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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