wolfie09 Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 For the first time since July of last year, Rochester went through an entire month (March) without setting a new daily temperature or daily precipitation/snow record. Temperatures for the month averaged just below normal, making it the 7th time this decade that March finished with below normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 2, 2019 Author Share Posted April 2, 2019 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For the first time since July of last year, Rochester went through an entire month (March) without setting a new daily temperature or daily precipitation/snow record. Temperatures for the month averaged just below normal, making it the 7th time this decade that March finished with below normal temperatures. It really does seem that winter drags on into March/April. We are getting later starts and late ends. I wish it would be the other way around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 I have been thinking the same thing about winter dragging through March much of this decade. For snowmobilers, a later start and later end is actually good because most trails aren’t open until after hunting season (+/- Dec 20th depending on location/year to not irritate hunters who own much of the land we ride on). If winter starts early we end up with more problems of people riding where they shouldn’t be and potentially causing property owners to revoke permission to use their land. That isn’t a problem when there is good snowcover through March. Our pond has been frozen over since November 10th, so we are currently over 4.5 months straight. Not sure if we’ll make it to 5 months but I’m still seriously impressed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 For S&G .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Amazing how fast it goes from feeling like spring to feeling like winter lol Once the wind started and clouds rolled in , started feeling uncomfortable.. Even this upcoming weekend which originally was slated in the mid-upper 60's is now upper 50's, by the time it gets here will be 40's lol Seen some rumblings of the NAO possibly going negative next week which would keep us in a below average regime if it came to fruition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Worth monitoring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 3, 2019 Author Share Posted April 3, 2019 Every time I go to florida we get a snowstorm, so it's definitely happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Where was this blocking in January? Can we eke outline last big one? Anything is possible. U know I’ll be hoping on a big one! I don’t care if it melts in one day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 yep. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 A bit to far north on the euro. Still drops 1/2" LE in the form of snow. 6z para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Gfs farther south and east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 It’s a great pattern. Someone’s gonna catch a surprise. Models mostly moved north, in lockstep, last night. It being mid April, north is the most likely probability. Still bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 FrozenShutter / Getty Images El Niño intensifies: What’s that mean for spring weather? What’s up with this crazy weather? Here’s a look. Apr 03, 2019 By Chad McNutt Since mid-February, we have seen an intensification of El Niño. El Niño intensifying this late in the year is somewhat unique. Related: Photos: Powerful scenes of destruction from Midwest after bomb cyclone The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other forecast groups gave us plenty of notice El Niño was coming, but how it actually evolved was a surprise. El Niño vs La Niña Burt first, some background. Related: 2019 CattleFax Outlook: Weather, market outlook encouraging El Niño conditions occur when warmer than average water accumulates in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Alternatively, La Niña conditions occur when cooler than average waters accumulate in the same region of the Pacific Ocean. Why is this important? El Niño and La Niña can shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns across the U.S. and around the globe. When the tropical ocean either warms or cools, it can affect pressure gradients, which can in turn change atmospheric wind patterns that can alter precipitation patterns. For the U.S., El Niño events usually have a jet-stream that is shifted south. That can bring above-normal precipitation across the southern tier of the country, while producing less storminess and milder conditions across the northern tier. La Niña events, on the other hand, feature a jet-stream that is shifted north over the northern U.S. and Canada. That produces colder and stormier conditions over the northern tier of the country and less precipitation and milder temperatures over the southern tier. What’s happening now To quickly recap, El Niño has been very slow to form, then in January it essentially went MIA, and finally, in mid-February, El Niño began its much-anticipated push. That caused NOAA to finally issue an El Niño Advisory. Usually, by February and March, El Niño events begin winding down. Not this one. Instead, we have seen it intensify and with it, a very active storm track has brought much-needed moisture to much of the western U.S. The wet conditions have reduced the area considered in drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor by over 10 percentage points over the last month (see map above). Another way to look at the drastic change is to look at the percentage of the major cattle, corn, and hay-producing areas that are in drought. At present, 2% of cattle and 2% of hay are in drought and no major corn growing area is in drought. These are the lowest percentages since the three stats started to be tracked by USDA in 2011. Los Niños? According to Klaus Wolter, retired researcher at the University of Colorado who specializes on El Niño and La Niño events, “While most El Niño events tend to persist through winter and weaken into spring, they can get a late boost during the winter, with the most recent examples being the weak El Niño of 2014-15 that morphed into the Super Niño of 2015-16, and the weak El Niño of 2004-05 that had a late rally in early 2005, but then dissipated by mid-2005.” Wolter said that going forward, “The majority of the ECMWF [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts] model runs show moderate El Niño conditions during early summer, followed by greater uncertainty in the fall.” Wolter said even though there is uncertainty in the fall timeframe there is still increased odds of a second El Niño winter (aka the rare Los Niños or the double-dip El Niño) given that the majority of climate models show El Niño conditions into early 2020. Wolter described that while two-year El Niño events are not quite as common as “double-dip” La Niña events (i.e. two or more years of La Niña), they have occurred six times since 1948: 2014-16, 1991-93, 1986-88, 76-78, 68-70, and 1957-59. The take home from all this is that El Niño is currently solidifying and will favor a wet and cool spring in much of the U.S (see the latest NOAA Seasonal Outlooks). If it continues to strengthen into the summer, the odds for a second El Niño winter in 2019-20 are better than 50%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 12z para.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 I'm really going to come back Saturday afternoon around noon to a snowstorm? Looks 80-85 and sunny most days down there for the next week. I'll bring back some sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 4, 2019 Author Share Posted April 4, 2019 57 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: FrozenShutter / Getty Images El Niño intensifies: What’s that mean for spring weather? What’s up with this crazy weather? Here’s a look. Apr 03, 2019 By Chad McNutt Since mid-February, we have seen an intensification of El Niño. El Niño intensifying this late in the year is somewhat unique. Related: Photos: Powerful scenes of destruction from Midwest after bomb cyclone The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other forecast groups gave us plenty of notice El Niño was coming, but how it actually evolved was a surprise. El Niño vs La Niña Burt first, some background. Related: 2019 CattleFax Outlook: Weather, market outlook encouraging El Niño conditions occur when warmer than average water accumulates in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Alternatively, La Niña conditions occur when cooler than average waters accumulate in the same region of the Pacific Ocean. Why is this important? El Niño and La Niña can shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns across the U.S. and around the globe. When the tropical ocean either warms or cools, it can affect pressure gradients, which can in turn change atmospheric wind patterns that can alter precipitation patterns. For the U.S., El Niño events usually have a jet-stream that is shifted south. That can bring above-normal precipitation across the southern tier of the country, while producing less storminess and milder conditions across the northern tier. La Niña events, on the other hand, feature a jet-stream that is shifted north over the northern U.S. and Canada. That produces colder and stormier conditions over the northern tier of the country and less precipitation and milder temperatures over the southern tier. What’s happening now To quickly recap, El Niño has been very slow to form, then in January it essentially went MIA, and finally, in mid-February, El Niño began its much-anticipated push. That caused NOAA to finally issue an El Niño Advisory. Usually, by February and March, El Niño events begin winding down. Not this one. Instead, we have seen it intensify and with it, a very active storm track has brought much-needed moisture to much of the western U.S. The wet conditions have reduced the area considered in drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor by over 10 percentage points over the last month (see map above). Another way to look at the drastic change is to look at the percentage of the major cattle, corn, and hay-producing areas that are in drought. At present, 2% of cattle and 2% of hay are in drought and no major corn growing area is in drought. These are the lowest percentages since the three stats started to be tracked by USDA in 2011. Los Niños? According to Klaus Wolter, retired researcher at the University of Colorado who specializes on El Niño and La Niño events, “While most El Niño events tend to persist through winter and weaken into spring, they can get a late boost during the winter, with the most recent examples being the weak El Niño of 2014-15 that morphed into the Super Niño of 2015-16, and the weak El Niño of 2004-05 that had a late rally in early 2005, but then dissipated by mid-2005.” Wolter said that going forward, “The majority of the ECMWF [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts] model runs show moderate El Niño conditions during early summer, followed by greater uncertainty in the fall.” Wolter said even though there is uncertainty in the fall timeframe there is still increased odds of a second El Niño winter (aka the rare Los Niños or the double-dip El Niño) given that the majority of climate models show El Niño conditions into early 2020. Wolter described that while two-year El Niño events are not quite as common as “double-dip” La Niña events (i.e. two or more years of La Niña), they have occurred six times since 1948: 2014-16, 1991-93, 1986-88, 76-78, 68-70, and 1957-59. The take home from all this is that El Niño is currently solidifying and will favor a wet and cool spring in much of the U.S (see the latest NOAA Seasonal Outlooks). If it continues to strengthen into the summer, the odds for a second El Niño winter in 2019-20 are better than 50%. The Nino didn't act like a Nino at all this winter. It was anti Nino in its "typical" fashion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Another transfer scenario, which is borderline in January let alone April lol Probably be a nice one for the Adirondacks into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 We’ve had VERY snowy April’s in Rochester. One year, it was our snowiest month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Small little area of decent snow on the euro, mainly over the tug.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 4, 2019 Share Posted April 4, 2019 Euro is pretty far north. Practically a GL runner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Slow warm up today, 33F with a sleet storm ongoing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 I guess this is why this model hasn't been"released" yet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Take it fwiw, which is not much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 I was just about to post the Canadian. IDK. I like the model. It’s been consistent in showing that stripe, it’s just been moving it north and south within a 200 mile span. Anyway you cut it, we have active pattern emerging. Someone is gonna get pasted. Hope it’s us!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 We flipped over to some big wet flakes which is interesting, not that it will amount to anything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 On interstate 81 heading south right now. Switched to snow in Cortland county. Heavy snow and sleet. Three accidents around us as roads turned to slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted April 5, 2019 Share Posted April 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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