96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 12z Euro not as enthused as the NAM family for those a bit farther west in our region. Still a fun finale if correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I'm not sure how much u can trust the global models with the wrap around portion, always seem to have trouble.. Canadian and GFS probably have a couple inches here..Looks much different than the hi Rez guidance obviously.. With that being said the euro has at the very least been consistent especially here with right around 1"-1.25" LE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Tight gradient right between Syracuse and Rochester. NWS going with Euro for flags. Its, quite honestly, the most likely outcome. A real nail biter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Probabilistic maps for Rochester are fun. Low end at 0 and high end at 8. Tough one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Warning issued for 6"-10".. Advisory for Wayne and N.Cayuga 3"-6" HWO into Kroc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Pretty much copied and pasted the euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ018&warncounty=NYC067&firewxzone=NYZ018&local_place1=Skaneateles NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=42.9456&lon=-76.4275#.XJPnxqQpCEc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Pretty much copied and pasted the euro lolCan it be any more obvious, lol?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 For tonight precipitation is expected to expand in coverage as a S-N oriented LLJ develops near the deepening surface low. This jet will bring copious amounts of Atlantic moisture over eastern Mid-Atlantic and New England regions, and convergence ahead of the jet will bring widespread rain showers across our eastern zones. Dynamic cooling through the evening hours will push the entire thermal profiles to at or below freezing resulting in a change over to snow...likely across the higher terrain (mainly Lewis County). We will have the highest PoPs from the Finger Lakes eastward, while chance PoPs will remain in place for areas west of the Genesee Valley. Overall snow totals tonight will range 1 to 3 inches on the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. During the day Friday the deep Atlantic moisture over New England and southern Quebec will fold westward back over our region as the second upper level low drops by our region just to the west. This abundant moisture in the lower levels, combined with deepening cold air and increasing low level lapse rates will result in lake enhanced, and upslope snow showers through the day across WNY, and then shifting eastward to areas east of Lake Ontario. This second wave of snow will have greater accumulations than the snow originating with the initial coastal low and shortwave. Also this second wave of snow will have higher snow to liquid ratios...and allow the increasing winds to create blowing snow. Temperatures aloft at 850 hPa will drop to around -7 to -10C...not quite cold enough for pure lake effect snow...but cool enough that we should still see some enhancement. The moist, northwest flow will also generate orographic lift snow Friday and into Friday night. While accumulations will be minor through the first half of Friday...the deepening cold air and increasing northwest winds will begin to increase the snow accumulation Friday afternoon across the higher terrain...and then everywhere by sunset Friday night. This period of late Friday to Friday night is when the bulk of the snow for this event will fall. Winds... Winds tonight will be light across the region, with an inverted surface trough extending across our eastern zones from the passing coastal low. Once the surface low passes by our latitude, a northwest wind will rapidly increase Friday midday through Friday night. Gusts will generally be 30 to 40 mph, with occasional gusts to 45 mph along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Temperatures...Lows tonight will remain just above freezing for much of our CWA. The airmass will warm a little Friday morning before the coastal low passes by to our east, and a much colder airmass invades the region from the northwest. Temperatures will likely begin to fall through the afternoon hours, and continue to fall Friday night with overnight lows in the upper teens across the higher terrain and lower 20s near the Lakes. The combination of winds and temperatures will make wind chill values drop into the single digits across the region Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Latest 3K Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 18z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I think Jim Teske on Channel 9 is the most conservative when it comes to accumulation forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Hi Rez Nam and Hi rez canadian have the right idea here Go big or go home lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Teske drives me crazy. Instead of just ignoring WNY, he just decreases amounts as the map extends westward. Always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 18z LR Hrrr.. Would of matched up nicely with the 3k/hrdps as it's still snowing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Um 12Z vs 18Z are worlds apart precip total wise?? 18Z That don't look good to me?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 nicely negatively tilted H700, nice with copious amts of atl moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Hi rez all the way for me lol And no I don't count the 12k Nam ..haha .Take a look at the GFS lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 18z euro decreased totals some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Haha. I’m thinking I’ve wasted a lot of time on this mess. Lol. I’m going to the dacks. Hope I can get a couple pics! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 The models no longer loop, stall, and redevelop the surface low back over Maine, that cuts down on a solid 12 hours of precip. I think that explains the the 50% drop in max totals. Not the look I wanted but it actually looks more plausible. I'll be staying up to watch the 'cuse game and watch the models roll in. If we get 8 inches or more at Whiteface I'll call it a win. Setting the bar relatively low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Syracuse will be lucky to see a couple inches, if that, RLMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 It comes down to where these "heavier" bands set up , obviously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Warnings should be dropped imo but what do I know, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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