DeltaT13 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 hour ago, cny rider said: I'm still hedging. I want to get in at least one more good ski day. Wondering if Sunday might actually be the better day this weekend. Could be a gem of a spring day on fresh snow. Both days should be top notch. I like the deep ungroomed stuff so Saturday will hopefully be a the real deal for me. Sunday will be a bluebird spring day though, no doubt about that. A little worried about wind holds on some of the lifts on Saturday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Both days should be top notch. I like the deep ungroomed stuff so Saturday will hopefully be a the real deal for me. Sunday will be a bluebird spring day though, no doubt about that. A little worried about wind holds on some of the lifts on Saturday though. The wind is usually not as bad as they expect during the storm. It’s usually after that they ramp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: The wind is usually not as bad as they expect during the storm. It’s usually after that they ramp up Yeah, would be nice to get a good start to the day without any lift issues. Maybe the winds won't pick up until noon or so. Any clearing will really mix them down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 The storm is already REALLY wound up. This is gonna be fun to watch. Where was this power house in January? pretty classic Miller A!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 12z NAM 5 mb deeper compared to the 6z run at 21 hrs. This thing is on fire. Someone in central ny is getting smoked. I’d put money on Syracuse. its gonna be stronger, colder and further west than expected. Syr 10+ Roc 4 Buf 2 Laje Placid 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: 12z NAM 5 mb deeper compared to the 6z run at 21 hrs. This thing is on fire. Someone in central ny is getting smoked. I’d put money on Syracuse. its gonna be stronger, colder and further west than expected. Syr 10+ Roc 4 Buf 2 Laje Placid 24 It’s also a LOT slower with the Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 If the NAM is right this’ll be one heck of a finale tomorrow PM and night. I anticipate many IPAs, March Madness and multiple Jeb walks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6z euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Higher elevations in most on CNY are gonna get smoked, especially the hills S of the Cuse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Still think lower el's have issues till tomorrow night at the earliest. Could still squeeze out a few slushy inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Higher elevations in most on CNY are gonna get smoked, especially the hills S of the Cuse! NAM is exponentially better for these areas. What a way to go out. Costanza “jerk store” style!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 It would be a true beast if there was an Arctic HP over Ottawa to feed this thing but instead we have 2 converging SLP's, interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Out to hr 54..Lock it in..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3k is a crush job.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 This looks great so does H850 with strong flow off the Atlantic. H850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 16" at 10-1 and still going lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I think Kuch method will do better in general with this event, catching the sub 10:1 ratios occurring until the wrap around precip starts with ratios climbing to 12-15:1.Crush job for the hills south of 90, while the Mohawk Valley and other low lying areas south of the Tug/Adks could get hurt by downslope flow Friday morning, but its tough to say at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Some short range guidance, may still be going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Those look reasonable. Thanks as always Wolfie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 It’s a barn burner of a low! Tight. Tucked. And ready to rumble. Someone in the Dacks sees 30” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I like the way this looks in the Catskills right now too. Could be a great Platty day on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s a barn burner of a low! Tight. Tucked. And ready to rumble. Someone in the Dacks sees 30” I really hope youre right. Half my crew is banking on VT, me and few others decided on whiteface. All you really need is about 6-8 inches and it'll be a great POW day. Anything extra is just gravy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 6z high Rez Canadian had near a foot just by 2am sat with probably another 6-8 hours of snow to go.. 12z coming out now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 South Redfield going to get jipped compared to areas 10 miles away? I am shocked......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I really hope youre right. Half my crew is banking on VT, me and few others decided on whiteface. All you really need is about 6-8 inches and it'll be a great POW day. Anything extra is just gravy! Vermont might have some mixing issues. I’d much rather be in the dacks for this one. Rochester is also in a funny location. Rochester is going to be on the western most periphery for the main slug which will mostly be rain/ mix for lower and mid elevations. If the storm gets cranking, like I expect, even the lower elevations within the main slug could goto snow due to dynamic cooling. This will be important for Syracuse, Lowville, etc. If it trends further west, it could also be important for Rochester and Wayne County. Most of Rochester’s snow will fall during the second half with help from the lake while moisture is pinwheeling back in from the north. By that point, the entire column should be well below 28f. It’s a matter of how much moisture is pushed west and how much Ontario wants to help. This is still changeable. Honestly, Rochester could see a slushy inch or a foot. IDK. Being on the immediate lake shore will be tough for any accumulation. Areas like Oswego.. imho. Conversely, areas with just a bit of elevation should do better. Super curious what the 12z euro shows. Will it continue its trend of decreasing WNY totals? Probably.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: South Redfield going to get jipped compared to areas 10 miles away? I am shocked......................... Downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 I like where I stand with this one at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Reminds me of November couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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