wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Updated map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 Starting to come down pretty good, lets see how long we can keep it over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 According to the rgem this band should sink back south around midnight before becoming like a "firehouse" similar to the 3k nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 That's the weirdest map of the whole season. Hands down. Dansville 3" Batavia 4" Is that little shortwave going to pop synotic snow? It looked really moisture starved on every run. 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Updated map.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 I'll take 8 more inches. Pound town currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Weak ridging aloft across the Lower Great Lakes will give way to an impending upstream shortwave that is in the process of diving southeast from Lake Superior. Ahead of this system...winds will back to a WSW`erly flow which will nudge lake snows back out over the open waters of Lake Ontario and then direct lake effect snows into Oswego county overnight. As the shortwave and corresponding surface reflection nears the region lake effect snows will then become reinvigorated as synoptic moisture ramps up and equilibrium levels climb over 12K feet. This will be the much need juice to provide an additional 3-6" inches across Oswego County overnight. This feature will also produce some light snow showers with some minor accumulations expected across the region overnight. As the surface low crosses the lakes during the wee hours Thursday morning a wind shift will occur to NW`erly in its wake. This will send all remain lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario. Expect additional accumulation of 1-3" in the most persistent snows southeast of lake Ontario Thursday. All remaining synoptic snows will quickly diminish with its departure by mid morning. Behind this system high pressure will begin to take hold across the lower lake and synoptic moisture will get stripping away. Additionally, equilibrium levels will lower and lake snows will continue to weaken and then diminish. Otherwise, outside of the lake snows it will continue to be cold with highs expected in the upper teens to lower 20s areawide which is well below normal. Where should we be for this time of year, upper 30s near 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I would love to see the band hit during the day. Seriously, every one of our heavier events has hit at night. They started usually with Sw flow during the afternoons, then shift West in the evenings, then NW overnight. I actually meant to ask if this is a common set up with different variables, or just coincidence. 1 hour ago, Phillifan22 said: What you’ve noted is not a coincidence. Studies have shown lake effect tends to weaken during the day (especially in late fall and early spring when daylight is longer and the sun angle is higher). This weakening is caused by a decrease in the temperature contrast as the air above and around the lake (as well as the land) warm. It goes back to the fundamental of lake effect, cold air over a warm lake. While Phillifan is right... I think what Matt is referring too has just been luck or a lack-thereof. One thing that may also contribute is the land-breeze fronts (e.g. Steenburgh and Campbell) that could be contributing, especially overnight where lake vs. land temperature differences are maximized. But I think for Matt's question, the answer is pretty much down to luck. I remember a few years back when phillifan and I did forecasts for the DOT there seemed to always be heavy lake-effect during the day due east of the lake, so it's probably just random chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Probably do a measurement soon, would guess 3"-4" or so, still coming down quite nicely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Band looks to have stalled temporarily over northern Oswego county and southern Lewis. Piling up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 I was right on the money, just a hair over 3" so far.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Was "2 to 4 inches" a couple hours ago. Love when it increases... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Band looks to have stalled temporarily over northern Oswego county and southern Lewis. Piling up here. Imagine what you’re seeing now for 10 days straight and you get 2007. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Yeah same here.. Rgem nailed this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Imagine what you’re seeing now for 10 days straight and you get 2007. Stop it. You'll make me bitter... I am going to have to make a trip up here in future years for one of those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah same here.. Rgem nailed this.. It seems to me that the Rgem has been one of the best this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 This band is all over the place lol I keep going in and out of heavy snow, being fringed just to the north at the moment. Looks good for you matt! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This band is all over the place lol I keep going in and out of heavy snow, being fringed just to the north at the moment. Looks good for you matt! 3 hours of HEAVY snow now and continuing. Haven't measured, but friends are reporting 3 inches per hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2019 Author Share Posted March 7, 2019 Carol is getting destroyed. She will likely get 2’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 She is actually north of the heaviest. Did you guys see the most recent map? Nice surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 5.5" here and ripping out.. Band starting to drop south.. 21.8" storm total so far, snow depth right around 18"-20".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Nice storm for some of you! Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 6 inches in 4.5 hours and still snowing. Had a few periods with 2 to 3" per hour rates...but seems like 1" per hour was the average. Walked around and took some measurements. 20 to 24 inch snow depth in my yard which gets southern sun...so no doubt we have 2 to 3 feet snow depth in many areas not exposed to sun and wind. Snow retention is key here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Point and click now has 7 to 11 inches for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Unbelievable that BUF has Kroc at 5” on their expected map. No model even shows an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 I know, it’s progressive, but try and tell me it doesn’t have a look!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Rgem still has more of a "Westerly" look with another 3"-5" during the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Trying to get going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Woke to a surprise 3.3” of pure fluff. Awesome. Puts me over 110” on the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Map for the rest of the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Southern area's have run into some bad luck.. We keep getting WNW flow during the day and west-wsw over night lol.. Today for example GFS has WNW flow starting around 10am and then backs flow west again around 7pm..Not sure how much band would be left by then though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now