BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: We got extremely lucky in January that we had that 3 week stretch with 70”. If not for that we’d be so far below average it would be 11-12 all over again. I know this winter is not over yet but I’d give this winter a C+ to B-. Got off to a rocking start in November with early lake effect snow and brutal arctic cold near Thanksgiving giving Buffalo the coldest Thanksgiving ever and then winter took quite a break in December and the first week in January before coming back with a blitzing Vengance near mid January with several lake effect events and the blizzard which was like Jan 14 all over again followed by a very windy few weeks including the hurricane force wind gust a couple weeks ago and now getting consistent small snowfalls and anaomolously cold weather for March this week. Can’t complain when I’m roughly a few inches above my entire seasonal average in early March but my biggest gripe about this winter has been the lack of consistent cold to build a nice snowpack. Seems we never stayed cold enough to build a nice pack even when we got the 70” in 3 weeks in January we never had a snowpack above 20” and even that only lasted a couple days as we had thaws in between significant lake effect events. If we can manage a whopper (12”+) before this season is over than I’ll slide this winter up into the B+/A- range. Those 2 LES events make it at least a B+ for me. That wind storm with the ice blocks along the lake shore were incredible too. But losing my favorite winter month in December makes it impossible to give an A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 I should know better than to question BuffaloWeather. He slams me with facts and figures EVERY god damn time. Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hmmm. I’m shocked. I guess... It feels like an under winter. I guess we’ve been dinked and dunked to the over but I would love to see the airports measuring system. Lol. Anyhow, hoping on a bit of LES over next few days. Cause after that we are back into cutters. Off to Bristol. Anyone going? I just got back from Stratton this weekend. All things considered it was a pretty good trip. Snow was decent with some blue bird days. I may hit Bristol one night this week but the brutal cold isnt making it all that appealing, if you go I'll be interested to hear how the conditions are.. Probably going to Holiday Valley this weekend for the "Winter" carnival (I have no idea why they have the winter carnival in March, its ass backwards). Anyway, Saturday looks pretty perfect, low 30's and sun with no wind. Hoping to make a whole day out of it. After that, looks like the ski season is just about dunzo with more rain on the horizon and warmer temps by mid month. An average year at best.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Still waiting on a lake event to drop double digits here. I wonder how rare it is to have a winter that doesn't have one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 The lower half of Huron, where we usually get a lot of added moisture from, is frozen, as is Georgian Bay, so unless their talking about Superior, I don't see any connection happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 850mb temperatures dive to about minus-20 Celsius for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, before starting to moderate slightly into Thursday. Thus the dendritic growth layer will reside in the lowest 5 kft agl, with just about any cloud cover producing airy dry snowflakes. Also, in addition to the instability already offered by the very cold air mass aloft with 1000-500mb thicknesses falling to about only 500 decameters, the ever-increasing sun angle of March will also produce diurnal instability Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, to eke out additional snow showers and flurries. The airmass will indeed be very dry, limiting coverage and accumulations of snow in a general sense. However, the primary lake feed off of Lake Ontario will be capable of yielding several inches of snow across portions of Onondaga-Madison-Oneida counties. One trend in the models, though, is that there will be several embedded shortwaves within the main upper trough that pivots through and then gradually lifts out during the period. So while confidence in lake effect-supporting environment remains high, the positioning of the lake band or bands will fluctuate considerably. Confidence getting greater than 7 inches in any 12 hour period is not high enough for any of our counties yet for a Watch or a Warning, but that cannot be ruled out. As it stands now, Winter Weather Advisories easily appear likely be needed for at least Onondaga-Madison counties, if not some of Oneida as well at some point. In particular, late Tuesday night to midday Wednesday may include a Huron-to-Ontario connection which would produce higher snowfall rates. Unsure at this time how far south this banding gets; some portions of Seneca-Cayuga could get involved at times as well. Look for these details to be better ascertained over the course of the next day or so. When adding up all of Tuesday night through Thursday, 5 to 10 inches total will probably be realized in some of the above-mentioned counties, and if the primary Lake Ontario band manages to persist over a localized area, there could be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Kbuf Very late today and tonight synoptic-scale moisture will begin to increase across our region out ahead of an approaching mid level trough...particularly from the Lake Ontario basin northward. Coupled with the loss of diurnal influences and a lengthening fetch across Lake Ontario as winds turn more west-northwesterly... this should allow for the Lake Ontario lake snows to consolidate and become better organized across Northern Cayuga and southern Oswego counties this evening. The reconstituted lake snows should then generally lift northward across the Tug Hill region overnight as the low level flow backs to westerly...and then west-southwesterly late. In terms of potential snowfall amounts...at this point it still appears that the Lake Ontario lake snows should be capable of producing at least some advisory-worthy accumulations as they redevelop and move northward tonight...with lower-end warning-type amounts across portions of Oswego county not out of the question if the band manages to hang up over an area long enough. This said... occurrence of the latter remains questionable at this point given a background synoptic environment only featuring a cap of 6-7 kft... and more importantly continued uncertainty in exactly how fast the band will migrate northward...both factors that could help to limit accumulations. With this in mind we have just elected to retain the existing Winter Weather Advisory for Northern Cayuga counties for now...as well as add a new advisory for Jefferson and Lewis counties to cover the expected northward foray of the lake snows from later tonight through Tuesday/Tuesday evening...more details on which are provided in the Short Term section below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 The wife and I are going to check out some of the towns I have found jobs in and applied for. This includes Cazenovia, Morrisville, Hamilton, Truxton, Cortland, Lansing, and Ithaca. I am personally hoping for a job in Madison county, as it is a beautiful rural area with nice towns...and gets some good uplifting events. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 Few pics from last night. Perfect conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 Poor wolf and tug...What are the chances? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 This might be the first year in awhile a place off of Lake Erie beats the Tug for highest total in New York State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This might be the first year in awhile a place off of Lake Erie beats the Tug for highest total in New York State. If Fulton picks up 10-12" this week while the So Tug area collects flurries, Wolfie may go postal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 That map is a good deal off lol They have Fulton above average through February.. They are at 106 and avg is 175 over the last 24 years. All these seasonal snowmaps have no idea how much this area receives lol They are probably computer generated and "estimated".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 The one positive about living closer to the lake . Light wind events keeping the band closer to the shore.. Last I checked projected winds between 5mph-9mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Fulton is actually up to 114", my bad lol Still below average for this time of year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Not so sure this is the end of winter yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 Perrysburg is at 175.7" on the year. Redfield is at 202" Springville is at 167.3" Holiday Valley is at 170" Base Depth: 19-48" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 NYZ004-050330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0009.190306T0400Z-190307T1500Z/ Wayne- Including the city of Newark 227 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Wayne county. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 It's a good look to me, max totals 2' if band stalls at all. Most likely will be moving quite a bit so should keep totals in check. Look what happened last event 20" totals out of no where when that band stalled for a few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 Off topic but we have the best posters on this forum. You should see some of the things I read on here. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 This would be most welcome if I wasnt looking forward to 75 degrees and umbrella drinks poolside... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Strictly for the WNW/NW portion of this event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Nam continues to look better here.. 6"-8" overnight tonight, 4"-6" tomorrow and then WNW/NW flow tues night through wed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Lake starting to fire up some..Light snow just started.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 The band that's currently developing on Lake Ontario is headed straight for Watertown I didn't see that in any model runsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Blizzarding here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Snow coming down pretty good now..This wasn't really in the forecast here neither.. This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 22. West wind around 15 mph. Scattered flurries before 7pm, then scattered snow showers between 7pm and 8pm, then snow after 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Yeah not really sure what going on with this band lol Still pouring snow out at the moment, so i'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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