wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Could be a weak lake response tonight.. Tonight a WNW flow of marginally cold air, with lake induced equilibrium levels of 5-7K feet, will support a very modest lake response in the wake of this weak system. This will support some light lake effect snow south and southeast of Lake Ontario. In a northwest flow it is difficult to pin down exactly where steadier snows will be, with mesoscale guidance showing a possible connection to Lake Huron. Some models suggest this will develop near Genesee County, with others focusing on Wayne and Northern Cayuga later tonight. Either way, accumulation will again be limited with an inch or less at most locations, except an couple inches locally. Lake effect snow extend south of Lake Ontario from Orleans to western Oswego counties. Lowering inversion heights will allow this weak lake response to mostly end by daybreak Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I love how they try to forecast LE its so funny, lol! Language is so vague Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Prob about 1/2"-3/4" or so, continues to snow decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I love how they try to forecast LE its so funny, lol! Language is so vague Right!?!? Genesee County or Cayuga... never mind they are like 60+ miles apart. The south shore stuff can’t be forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Slightly over one full inch lol Still seeing some light steady snow, 28 degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I was thinking about how far the models have come. I started looking at these things almost 25 years ago. At first I think there were 3 or 4 available. I can remember the AVN, NGM and the Navy. The AVN (American I think) went out to 72 hrs and 120 at the 0z. But it jumped 72-84-96-120. Snowfall only went out to 48. Crazy how far they’ve come. I think it was someone from here who recently lamented that they’ve become sooo accurate it takes some of the fun out of it. Anyway, a few big wins for the old American model recently. It has outperformed the vaunted Euro by a good deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Behind the front, much colder Arctic air is inbound for Tuesday night through the rest of midweek. Signals are starting to show up for a possible significant lake effect snow event, including potential Huron-to-Ontario connection, into at least portions of Onondaga-Madison-Oneida counties and lasting through at least Wednesday night and perhaps well into Thursday. At least scattered snow showers and flurries can be expected elsewhere, especially Twin Tiers northward. Also, wind chills will likely be below zero at times Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Well, as has been stated, gfs/fv3 pretty much winning on this one. Quick moving storm that will only give me 2-3” in ALB. At least those of you in parts of Oswego Co will get hit! I’m quite jealous! My friends up at SUNY Oswego are excited they may finally get an event all to themselves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Ripping pretty good out at the moment...Big fluffly flakes.. Forcecast today is "partly cloudy", not sure where this came from lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Ripping pretty good here also. Big parachute flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Maybe we can squeeze out an inch or two of surprise snow.. Radar looks decent at the moment.. Finished with 1.25" yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I had no idea I'd be waking up to Fat parachutes this mornin!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 What a Beautiful Surprise on this Sunday morningSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 We’ll probably end up with more from this Sunday surprise than we will from the storm tonight, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Yes sir..Coming down nicely.. Cleared my railings/table this morning, i would guesstimate around an inch or so, maybe slightly more.. Trying to dink and dunk my way to a respectable season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Congrats Oswego.. Would be a fitting way to end the season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Well I was going to try and get back to Redfield to work on packing some more and experience the lake effect snow event. But it looks like the same garbage Westerly wind transition zone stuff we have had all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Oswego-Mexico straight through to Parish and ESE from there, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Where the heck is the SE ridge when we need it, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Arw is laughable, over 2feet just north of kfzy by Tuesday AM !! Haha Before winds are even supposed to be wnw, out ahead of the SW..Not happening..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Well I was going to try and get back to Redfield to work on packing some more and experience the lake effect snow event. But it looks like the same garbage Westerly wind transition zone stuff we have had all winter. U mean like this? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 That's only until Tuesday night, it may snow into Thursday afternoon near Fulton, would definitely be a couple feet in that area if it verified.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: U mean like this? Lol Yep! We still have a month and a half....right? Lol....biting my tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Still snowing here and it looks like its mixing with a little rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Looks like the NWS is going day by day.. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected. * WHERE...Extreme Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Looks too light to me but what do I know, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I'm sure it'll go up and down 5 times before it starts, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 What the hell are WSW criteria for Upton? 4-8" tainted by sleet in NYC but there are warning headlines. That might not even get an advisory in WNY/North Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 That's only till Tuesday morning, the band should be transient in nature, starting WNW Monday afternoon and backing up WSW by Tuesday am, out ahead of the SW.. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday looks best for a prolonged WNW/NW flow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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