wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 280 flow should promote a band through central oswego, probably keeping me on the northern fringes..We shall see.. This will encourage a more significant lake response...with a long 280 fetch for the activity off Lake Ontario allowed to blossom into what SHOULD be an intensifying plume of moderate to heavy snow in the vcnty of the Tug Hill. On Tuesday...a steady flow of -20c H85 air over Lakes Erie and Ontario will keep accumulating lake snows in place. The snows will likely pick up in intensity...as the deepening cold air will allow the cap to further lift to more than 10k ft. This is pretty `healthy` for this time of the season. Several inches of snow will be possible across the Southern Tier...while warning criteria snowfall will be possible near the Tug. Elsewhere...an approaching bundle of energy digging through the base of the deep longwave trough may promote scattered snow shower activity. It will be quite cold on Tuesday for an early day in March. Temperatures will NOT climb out of the teens for the vast majority of the region. Normal highs at this point are close to 40. Finally for Tuesday night...the flow will be a little more northwesterly in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. This should direct the lake snows a little further south...catching more of the south shore of Lake Ontario. Mins will be nearly identical to the night before...being in the single digits away from the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 How is the city of oswego looking wolfie with the windflow being around 280..im hoping for once tgus season a sustained wnw flow keeps us in a single plume band streaming off the lake in a rare early march lake effect effect amount to feet. Your thoughts in accumulation totals? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Early March lake events are not rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 You can get big LES events in March off Ontario, Erie is very rare as its usually frozen by then. Look at this one for April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Enjoy your LES! Both storms have had their dignity shredded by the progressive flow. I feel bad for the folks in Mass who just yesterday were looking at feet of snow and now are fighting for a few measley inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Enjoy your LES! Both storms have had their dignity shredded by the progressive flow. I feel bad for the folks in Mass who just yesterday were looking at feet of snow and now are fighting for a few measley inches. I don't feel bad for them in the slightest. They've had an absolute incredible last decade or so including the record year I was there in 14-15 (Rhode Island), which had almost 100" in like a 6 week period with absolute crushing synoptic storm after synoptic storm. That may actually be my favorite winter I can remember even my Buffalo winters, although to be fair I think 14-15 would have been my favorite winter if I was in Buffalo too. They deserve a couple of down years to at least bring them somewhat closer to the mean as they're average snowfall in places since 2000 has probably close to doubled... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Incredible how quickly the sun angle is doing its thing as I actually have S+ falling for the last 10-15 minutes and it's not sticking to the roads what so ever as temps are 31 degrees but you can just feel the brightness coming through the clouds and snowfall not allowing it to stick on anything other than car tops/old snowpack... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 In the early going i'm thinking this is another south of tug event.. Makes sense giving a potential 280-290 flow.. About a 12 hr window tues morning of a more "westerly" flow out ahead of a shortwave..Winds should veer more WNW/NW behind the SW .. U can tell by the NWS wording "vicinity" of the tug hill not "on" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Canadian shows this as well.. Obvioulsy can't take a 25km global model seriously when it comes to lake effect but to show 2'+ max is pretty impressive nontheless.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 You can all come and chill at my Crib, lol, the new snow Capitol of Oswego. Now that's a joke cause this wont happen again in yrs, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 It'll stay just to my North and just to the South of Wolfie, lol teasing us both, lol!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I did it to myself, several years ago i drew a triangle of the area i'd like to live, so what did i do? Moved north of it lol WNW is a common wind direction especially the second half of winter, more times then not it's more "westerly" then "northerly" , i can't tell you how many times i missed a band by a couple miles(north) in fulton.. That's why going just off wind direction can be deceptive as 280-300 flow can be considered WNW but have two totally different outcomes.. Atleast with a straight west wind (270 vector) it can only go one way lol I don't think the NWS has mentioned 270 flow yet this year haha..At least i still have 2 more feet then i would of if i still lived in fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I live it the city of oswego... looks like we are the bullseye..how much we looking at guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 a lot, enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro east for tomorrow storm. Pretty much a non event even for BGM and ALB. Looks like the GFS wins this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 From the southern tug to ksyr looks pretty good on the euro, all of oswego county should get a good dose with oscillating bands.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Obviously keep in mind the "global" euro only shows LES in trace amounts each 6Hr period, we know that is most likely BS lol First order of buisness is monday night-tues morning on a 270-280 vector..Probably the best shot at significant lake effect here.. Start a new job first thing monday morning, should be an interesting first few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: I don't feel bad for them in the slightest. They've had an absolute incredible last decade or so including the record year I was there in 14-15 (Rhode Island), which had almost 100" in like a 6 week period with absolute crushing synoptic storm after synoptic storm. That may actually be my favorite winter I can remember even my Buffalo winters, although to be fair I think 14-15 would have been my favorite winter if I was in Buffalo too. They deserve a couple of down years to at least bring them somewhat closer to the mean as they're average snowfall in places since 2000 has probably close to doubled... I'd generally agree. Lived in SE CT for 15 years, until 2000. Place was a crap hole for snow storms. Up towards Hartford and Springfield was better but even they struggled most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I'll buy that Lake Effect for a dollar! *Robocop* reference.;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Looks like i may be busy clearing snow this week down here in Hannibal, then again wait and see i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Looks like i may be busy clearing snow this week down here in Hannibal, then again wait and see i guess. Let’s hope so since I’m basically downwind from you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Like i was stating earlier variable wind directions, oscillating bands.. Fot the most part Gfs doesn't have one wind direction for more then 12 hours or so..(at one time) Gfs just like the euro has precip over the area from mon night into thursday afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 One thing to keep an eye on is the wind speed.. Last event kfzy only picked up 6"-7" as it was getting "jumped" over due to the wind.. Wind looks much "calmer" for this impending event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 I think Mexico is ground zero this time around so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 How is KSYR getting all their snow if its not from LE?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 nevermind I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 S+ here now with super fat dendrites too bad it'll be over in an hr but I think we can do an 1" so we'll see as the RGEM was bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 At least the sun is setting so it will have a better chance to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Northwest flow will spread across the region Monday morning while 850mb temperatures fall to -18 to -14 deg C through the day. This will be the start to a prolonged period of lake effect snow showers east-southeast of the Lakes. A large mid-level trough will persist across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate this big trough resulting in periods of enhancement of lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes, especially Lake Ontario. Most of Lake Erie is covered with ice and snow intensity will be severely reduced across western NY during this period. While lake effect snow begins Monday, intensity will be light as inversion heights remain near 5K feet. It won`t be until winds become west by Monday night and an organized lake band forms across Lake Ontario with snow showers occuring across the Tug Hill region. An incoming shortwave trough will push the band to the north Tuesday morning while also increasing mid-level moisture and advecting even colder temperatures aloft. This wave will increase forcing across the region with light snow expected everywhere Tuesday. Another more robust shortwave trough will move towards the region by Tuesday evening with lake snows rapidly intensifying east of Lake Ontario. Moderate to heavy snow accumulations are possible east of Lake Ontario Tuesday-Tuesday night and may warrant a winter weather headline. Westerly flow should eventually become northwesterly by Wednesday morning and snow will transition to Wayne and Cayuga counties. This shift may dampen the amount of time snow can pile up in one spot so will hold off on any watches at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Coming down pretty good now with nice sized flakes. Temperature is dropping but still at 34 so it’s having a hard time accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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