wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 EPS with surface tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: EPS with surface tracks Like Roch said that track suits us well for synoptic and lake enhanced snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: EPS with surface tracks So basically the stronger the storm the further the NW and the weaker the further SE. Like you said earlier though the Euro does have a tendency to over amp these things especially in the 3-5 day range so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it amp up a little more at 12z and maybe even 00z tonight and then start crawling back SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 What a gorgeous day - deep blue sky, warm almost March sun, fresh snow on the ground! Here’s a pictures of frozen Oneida Lake at Oneida Shores Park. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 One thing that has me holding hope is the Euro was the first to sniff out this weekend being colder while the GFS had a cutter storm and 45 to 50 Saturday...it has since shoved the low track well east while the euro then settled on its current track...if I'm a betting man I think this is the euros storm just like the GFS was right with yesterdays storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Final tally ..Allegany County... Rushford 5.0 800 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Wellsville 5.0 500 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Angelica 4.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Whitesville 4.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Alfred 4.3 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 4 SW West Almond 3.3 900 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Cattaraugus County... Perrysburg 6.2 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 1 NNE Franklinville 5.5 636 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Little Valley 4.0 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Cattaraugus 4.0 800 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer SSE Ischua 3.7 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 ENE Randolph 2.5 730 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Chautauqua County... 3 N Celoron 4.0 600 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Silver Creek 4.0 730 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 1 WNW Fredonia 4.0 500 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 4 ENE Jamestown 3.9 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 1 SW Dunkirk 3.5 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 S Dunkirk 3.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 5 WSW Randolph 3.5 745 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Falconer 3.0 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Erie County... 2 NW Tonawanda 6.5 742 AM 2/28 Trained Spotter Wales 6.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 1 W West Seneca 6.4 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 W Colden 6.4 730 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 2 SSE East Aurora 6.1 900 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 3 E Williamsville 6.0 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ENE East Aurora 5.8 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 3 WSW Elma 5.8 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 4 ESE North Boston 5.7 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 NW Kenmore 5.7 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 3 NNE East Aurora 5.6 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 SSE Eden 5.5 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 5 NNE Amherst 5.5 800 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Buffalo Airport 5.3 654 AM 2/28 ASOS WSW Hamburg 5.2 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 3 NW Hamburg 5.1 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Cheektowaga 5.0 730 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Alden 5.0 714 AM 2/28 Trained Spotter 2 NE Boston 5.0 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Blasdell 5.0 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ESE Kenmore 4.5 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Akron 4.5 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 ESE East Aurora 2.0 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Genesee County... 2 NE Stafford 8.6 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 NW Batavia 7.5 730 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 1 E Le Roy 6.7 800 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer ...Jefferson County... ENE West Carthage 4.6 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Lewis County... 1 E Osceola 8.0 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Highmarket 7.2 537 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Lowville 7.0 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Chases Lake 5.6 600 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 5 SSW Harrisville 3.3 530 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Livingston County... 1 ENE Dansville 6.4 750 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Avon 6.0 730 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Lima 6.0 700 AM 2/28 Trained Spotter 2 W Mount Morris 5.0 800 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer ...Monroe County... Brockport 9.5 900 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 4 SSE Pittsford 9.0 830 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 2 NE Honeoye Falls 7.1 500 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Rochester Airport 7.1 654 AM 2/28 ASOS Scottsville 6.3 900 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Niagara County... Lockport 7.5 806 AM 2/28 Trained Spotter 4 NE Sanborn 6.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Niagara Falls Airpor 6.0 653 AM 2/28 ASOS 3 WNW Lockport 6.0 820 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS North Tonawanda 5.8 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 3 ESE Lockport 5.2 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 6 E Niagara Falls 5.0 825 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Ontario County... Honeoye 8.0 816 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Geneva Research Farm 7.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer West Bloomfield 6.1 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer ...Orleans County... Medina 7.1 600 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer WNW Medina 4.6 800 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Lakeside 4.0 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer ...Oswego County... 5 ESE Oswego 8.2 600 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Fulton 7.4 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 8 N Redfield 7.4 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 1 NE Pulaski 7.0 800 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 3 SW Redfield 6.5 700 AM 2/28 Trained Spotter W Fulton 6.5 645 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 4 SSE Lacona 6.4 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS Bennetts Bridge 6.0 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer SE Minetto 6.0 800 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Wayne County... 2 SW Walworth 8.4 700 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 2 NW Palmyra 7.5 810 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS 3 ESE Macedon 6.8 535 AM 2/28 CoCoRaHS ...Wyoming County... Warsaw 7.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 3 W Wyoming 7.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 7 SW Attica 5.5 600 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Portageville 4.8 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer 3 N Silver Springs 4.5 700 AM 2/28 Co-Op Observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 12Z Euro has a 986 low over Cape Cod on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 12Z Euro has a 986 low over Cape Cod on Monday morning. So with a track like that it's assumed the LP goes through southern PA and out to Cape Cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Another bump east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Heaviest stuff is just to far away, best hope is for a few inches of powder.. Kuchera going to save the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Kuchera nailed yesterday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 It seems to me that the problem with this storm isn’t the track but the fact that it seems the heaviest precipitation is confined very close to the center of the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 IDK. We are still in the game. Obviously, the best stuff looks to be SE but we are just a normal adjustment to be in a moderate snowstorm. As said before, enhancement should be good for adding a few inches. First call 4-8”. It’s a reasonable track and actually has a pretty broad precip field. Not a blockbuster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 While that is true, the track is pretty stinky too lol We need it to go over NJ into SNE not slide underneath NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 6z euro had it over WV, 12z over the delmarva region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Yeah, the more I look, the less hopeful I am. It’s the damn progressive pattern. That freaking driving jet. No blocking. Western ridges keep getting shredded. Im gonna hope on amplification which is nutty but (and I know you guys hate this) climatologically this is great timing for a big one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yeah, the more I look, the less hopeful I am. It’s the damn progressive pattern. That freaking driving jet. No blocking. Western ridges keep getting shredded. Im gonna hope on amplification which is nutty but (and I know you guys hate this) climatologically this is great timing for a big one! Yup. No blocking to help us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Model guidance has started to come into a bit better agreement and with that better confidence exists that our area will be on the borderline of getting advisory level snow accumulations. For the moment, it seems most of the area stands a good shot at getting some snow, but the southeastern portions of the area should yield the best chance at more substantial accumulation. With northeasterly flow ahead of the system, cooling of the column and sinking dendritic layer into the saturation should yield much higher SLRs than the previous system, so QPF will be the main problem. Model guidance still has varying solutions with regard to this, and the northwesterly extent of backside deformation will likely determine this. That said, a light to moderate snowfall seems most likely to result...with the heavier accumulations off to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I'm not sure how the snow-liquid ratio can be "much higher" then the previous event when all the CoCoRaHs reports had 20/1+ ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: I'm not sure how the snow-liquid ratio can be "much higher" then the previous event when all the CoCoRaHs reports had 20/1+ ratios lol Maybe for you guys E of Lake Ontario. LE in WNY were much closer to 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 With this past system, flake size was not really that spectacular until the last few hours overnight. I imagine SLRs improved greatly at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 We had great flake size and ratios in Rochester. Best I’ve seen this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: With this past system, flake size was not really that spectacular until the last few hours overnight. I imagine SLRs improved greatly at that point. Compared to a few storms this season, the flake size wasn't that bad yesterday here. Certainly not the sh*tty rice snow we've seen here on more than one occasion with synoptic systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I know it’s the NAM at the end of its range and the 18z NAM at that but it’s way more amped and much further north with the storm. At least makes me not loose all my hope, it’s pretty close to something good for most on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Yup, was just about to post that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Warm air coming from somewhere.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Compared to a few storms this season, the flake size wasn't that bad yesterday here. Certainly not the sh*tty rice snow we've seen here on more than one occasion with synoptic systems. Still looked like we had that snow during the day here. Seem to be battling dry cold air pushing in here with those NEly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 I might be down at the family's house in PA this weekend. Would be nice to experience a good snowstorm down there. Good opportunity to help clean my parent's long driveway! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 28, 2019 Share Posted February 28, 2019 Such a persistent cold regime will also lead to a daily potential for at least some lake snows east and southeast of the lakes... with this looking to be best later Monday night through Tuesday night when available moisture will be most favorable. This said... there also remains considerable uncertainty in wind direction and consequently the placement of any lake effect...and there is also the matter of Lake Erie mostly being ice covered...which will help to limit the response off that particular lake. With all of the above in mind have thus mostly continued with a mixed bag of chance PoPs downwind of the lakes...save for east of Lake Ontario on Tuesday when the more favorable synoptic moisture and more open waters of that lake appear supportive of a period of likely probabilities. Outside of any lake effect areas there may be some more general snow showers on Tuesday in tandem with the approach/passage of a trough and the aforementioned increase in moisture...with mainly dry conditions otherwise prevailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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