TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I have been down in PA visiting family the past few days and had a laugh this afternoon when a local met said, "Winds will be VERY strong on Sunday night. Expect 15 to 30 mph winds." I must have gotten accustomed to living in the Great Lakes this past decade...because that is merely a breeze! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Euro still has zip for Tues/wed ..Barely even a surface reflection ... Meanwhile the GFS/para/icon all go through southern NY State with several inches of snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 On Lake Ontario...we will hoist a winter storm watch for lake effect snow, starting Sunday evening and going through Monday afternoon. This watch will encompass the 3 counties east of Lake Ontario, though impacts will mainly be across far southern Jefferson County, as well as Lewis and Oswego. Lake induced equilibrium levels are expected to increase to around 8-9K feet which will be plenty tall enough for lake effect snow to form. On a westerly flow wind convergence from both the north and south shoreline of Lake Ontario will create enough lift for either clusters of snow, or a band of lake snow. While snow amounts will likely range from several inches to potential for over 7 inches the still strong winds Sunday night and Monday will create a dangerous situation with near blizzard like conditions. Expect very poor visibilities within falling and blowing snow Sunday night and into Monday. Winds will continue to veer to northwesterly Monday and this will take the concentration of snow across the southern Tug Hill region, Oswego county and possibly begin to clip northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga by Monday night. However by Monday night the band of snow will be in a weaker state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro still has zip for Tues/wed ..Barely even a surface reflection ... Meanwhile the GFS/para/icon all go through southern NY State with several inches of snow.. Sticking with the winter pattern, I would go with the low moving through southern New York, and weakening as it moves through. 1 to 3 inch ordeal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 This wind event is somewhat unprecedented. Never in my life do I remember a wind event predicted this far out, with these kind of wind speeds. Every record event from the last 20 years was more or lesss unexpected. 1998 derecho was a rogue storm that no one saw coming until it was on radar 1/9/08 was supposed to be a high wind event but a low topped derecho caught us off guard and took it to another level. 3/8/17 was supposed to be windy but nowhere near apocalyptic Any other wind storm from the last 20 years is just the typical gusts to 60 type of stuff that is fairly routine This is certainly unique and will be very interesting to watch unfold. If these winds don’t verify the poor nws will take it on the chin as the hype is nearly off the charts. If they do verify there will be damage like we haven’t seen in a very very long time. My call kbuf - 71 kiag - 77 batavia - 75 kroc - 68 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This wind event is somewhat unprecedented. Never in my life do I remember a wind event predicted this far out, with these kind of wind speeds. Every record event from the last 20 years was more or lesss unexpected. 1998 derecho was a rogue storm that no one saw coming until it was on radar 1/9/08 was supposed to be a high wind event but a low topped derecho caught us off guard and took it to another level. 3/8/17 was supposed to be windy but nowhere near apocalyptic Any other wind storm from the last 20 years is just the typical gusts to 60 type of stuff that is fairly routine This is certainly unique and will be very interesting to watch unfold. If these winds don’t verify the poor nws will take it on the chin as the hype is nearly off the charts. If they do verify there will be damage like we haven’t seen in a very very long time. My call kbuf - 71 kiag - 77 batavia - 75 kroc - 68 Great points. My call: KBUF 76 mph KIAG 79 mph Batavia 81 mph KROC 72 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I lost three trees (all across my driveway) in the 17 event. I’ll be making a fresh batch of two cycle mix today. On the plus side I’m just starting to get low on firewood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 KBUF 77 mph KIAG 75 mph Batavia 71 mph KROC 76 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Actually the ICON looks the best for Tues-Wed, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 My pool cover almost blew off last wind storm. I have to do something about that today. It ripped a portion of it. Ah, the fun part of being a home owner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 its gonna be real interesting to see which set of guidance wins the battle over the Tues-Wed event, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Generator is gassed, bring it cause I know power will fail in these parts for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 My house kept power during the Labor Day derecho in 98 so we’ll see how we make out this time. At least I had a backup sump pump installed last summer that runs off my municipal water so I shouldn’t have to worry about my basement flooding again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Where are those maps on their website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 This is funny but a serious situation for sure! /O.NEW.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions focusing on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: This is funny but a serious situation for sure! /O.NEW.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.190224T2300Z-190225T2100Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 1155 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions and lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, and 3 to 6 inches across the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph will produce severe blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest snow amounts and most persistent blizzard conditions focusing on the Tug Hill region. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be nearly impossible at times. Areas of severe blowing snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning commute. I was just about to post that. Even if snowfall amounts aren’t huge anything that falls will be carried by the strong winds. I could see that definitely causing ground blizzard conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2019 Author Share Posted February 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Definitely agree as I was talking up those kinds of conditions days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 We haven't seen anything real heavy so far this yr and not much weather that's been interesting so at least this one brings some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 31 minutes ago, Polarbear said: Where are those maps on their website? Nws Buffalo Facebook.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 South and weaker on the 12z para for mid week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Canadian continues to be south, gfs north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Ukmet came in North.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 One after another lol You would think one of these would kick off some good lake effect on a westerly fetch, if we can get the Lp to stay put for a little.. Both American LR models have a good deal of lake effect potential in the distant future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Winds. Ground blizzards. Our best bet is actually a 1011 LP that doesn’t even register on the Euro. I hate this junk. If we make it through March without a significant WINTER storm it will be just perfect for this ass of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Far be it for me to tell people how to post but as a casual peruser of this subforum I have to say the complaining is getting old... Besides there’s some exciting weather right on our doorstep. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 There is your storm on the euro .. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 And its probably right, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Damn Matt can't even win when it comes to wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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