wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 The euro did so bad with this incoming event it's hard to trust it lol I'd like to see some other models start to run inland a little.. Euro brings this system up the apps and cuts it east over NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 38 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Actually the GEM has 4 storms affecting the northeast over the next week starting with today’s event! That's makes perfect sense since I've been ready for spring for a month ever since the Polar Vortexing we got. It'll happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Still under the influence of departing HP..VEry dry out, obviously..DP of -6.. I would think flake size should improve as we head into the afternoon and the main batch of precip gets here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 19 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's makes perfect sense since I've been ready for spring for a month ever since the Polar Vortexing we got. It'll happen. And because my plow on the tractor broke during the last decent snowfall we got... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: And because my plow on the tractor broke during the last decent snowfall we got... And because the last few winters have had some decent late season snow events 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 This reminds me of a storm earlier in the year.. Hp on the backside is diving down, how far north can it get before being shunted east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: And because the last few winters have had some decent late season snow events If i remember correctly the late season storm we got last year was too heavy for my tractor. Like 12" of 10:1. I had to get out the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 Medium/large sized flakes already. Should snow the rest of the day here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Friends back in West Michigan have been reporting lots of freezing drizzle mixed in at 15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Snowing pretty good at my job in Boston, probably about 1/2” or so an hour. Let’s do this for the next 12 hours plus some higher rates this afternoon/early eve and this could be a nice little 6”+ event.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Snowing pretty good at my job in Boston, probably about 1/2” or so an hour. Let’s do this for the next 12 hours plus some higher rates this afternoon/early eve and this could be a nice little 6”+ event.. Nice. With what is happening in the Midwest and recent model runs, this definitely took a farther north track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Virga storm here. Dew point 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Just now, CNY_WX said: Virga storm here. Dew point 2. Returns just reached us, lol, give it at least an hr, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Nam FTW.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 To much confluence on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 As I look out the dirty windows here at work, I think I see a few flakes starting to fall here in downtown Cuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Not far off but we need some changes, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Icon misses us just to the SE as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Icon misses us just to the SE as well.. There must be some model that can get us sucked in to unrealistic expectations. Perhaps tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Anyone else concerned that there seems to be a large amount of drying to the west and the better dynamics are north in upper lower Michigan and Ontario??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Para tries lol Something to watch at least, not far off from something decent.. Gfs/para caving to the euro/ukmet for Saturday, looks like a 1"-3"/2"-4" type deal especially east of Ontario on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Snowing nicely now here in Phoenix just west of me, flake size is not great but it just began so it's not even near saturation yet.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 NW trend all winter. It’s coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Anyone else concerned that there seems to be a large amount of drying to the west and the better dynamics are north in upper lower Michigan and Ontario??? Nope, real stuff doesn't get here until 4-6 PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 I know what was said about the fv3 and what you posted Wolfie about the model itself and it not getting released yet and the reason behind it, but I do think the model isn't bad with respect to track intensity of these said Cyclones. So in reality it could have an issue with snowfall totals and ratios and whatnot and then on the other hand we doing a great job with respect to track profiles blah blah blah all your other goodies when looking at winter storms.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Starting to snow quite nicely now in Phoenix ground is already white plague size has increased so I think it's looking good from here on out for a decent little eventSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2019 Author Share Posted February 27, 2019 The surface low is relatively weak, but it will slowly deepen as it moves into PA. Despite the lacking strength of the low, its placement is nearly ideal in terms of pattern recognition for maxing out snow amounts, by placing nearly all of WNY on the northern side of the low, with broad banding slowly pivoting overhead. The first part of the event is featuring first warm advective snow with relatively low snow ratios (10-15:1 (WNY average is around 16:1 for synoptic)). The warm conveyor belt can be found easily by following 925mb temperature or temperature advection which was rapidly approaching WNY at around 10AM. This should move east during the day, but will be followed by increasingly higher snow ratios and snow rates as cold air starts to move in from the west behind the low. Meanwhile, the upper level jet is weakly coupled, with one jet moving off the East Coast while the jet associated with the upper level shortwave trough moves in from the west. Both jets can be picked out by looking for the 150kt jet streak around 30000` per AMDAR. Forecast soundings show a completely saturated column by this afternoon with saturation to 12- 15k feet within the dentritic growth zone. The main IMPACT will be from 1-9PM with snow rates near 1 in/hr into the evening commute. Total snow accumulations will range from 3-8 inches - lowest east of Lake Ontario and near the PA border, and highest right across most of WNY east to the Finger Lakes. Most of this snow will fall in a 6-8 hour period this afternoon/early evening. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect across Western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2019 Share Posted February 27, 2019 Light to moderate event on the Canadian.. We can sure use that NW trend with the early week system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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