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I drove my wife into work on Taft Road this morning so I’m going to pick her up around 4:30. Based on the weather here I was expecting a slow drive down 81. I just looked at the traffic cameras at the 81/481 interchange and it looks like the road is just wet. The next camera south is at the airport and it looks like the pavement might even be dry in spots.  Not sure what the conditions are north of 481 to the Brewerton exit but it bugs me that there are no cameras up through the snow belt region. 

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Have no clue what their talking about, lol. I don't even think they do, lol!

This wind
shift will cause the band to continue to move south and into
Wayne and N. Cayuga counties tonight. Winds will be diminishing
during this time so blizzard conditions will improve. Accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches are expected across Oswego and Lewis counties
through this evening. These similar accumulations will move
south into Wayne and N. Cayuga counties overnight and into
Tuesday morning. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for
Oswego/Lewis through 10 PM tonight while a Winter Weather
Advisory for Wayne/N. Cayuga goes through 10 AM Tuesday.
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Just picked my wife up and it’s a different world south of route 31. I estimate I got close to 6 inches here today. It looks like the band is starting to head south.
The wife just got home from work and she said the cityvraods are dry, lol, and as she got to the Great Northern Mall shit changed in a hurry, lol.

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As a robust shortwave digs southeast from Manitoba on Wednesday...a
trough carving across the Upper Great lakes will lead to nominal
cyclogenesis within an established inverted trough over the Upper
Mid West/Ohio Valley. The resulting weak surface low will lead to
further strengthening of the aforementioned baroclinic zone...which
will effectively be pushed northeast to the western counties of New
York. Strong frontogenetic forcing with this boundary will lead to
fairly widespread light to occasionally moderate snow...which could
accumulate several inches between late Tuesday night through
Wednesday. From this vantage point though...amounts will probably
stay JUST below advisory criteria.

 

Weekend..

The latest model trends in the 12Z guidance are quickly taking the
potential for another wind event off the table. Instead, the
emerging consensus takes a much weaker low over us, or even to our
south which would produce a modest snow event. Temperatures will
also not warm much if this current track verifies, with near average
temperatures Saturday as the system moves through.

Following the Saturday system, a deep trough will become established
across the Great Lakes and New England. This will bring well below
normal temperatures for Sunday and Monday, along with at least some
lake effect potential east and southeast of the lakes.

The cold air will have some staying power, with the latest 8-14 day
outlook from CPC continuing to show high probabilities of below
normal temperatures across a wide swath of the nation. Expect mid
winter cold to last through the first 10 days of March.
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