Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

[Syrmax]

On 4/15/2019 at 4:22 PM, Buffalo Bumble said:

The last 48 or so hours of weather really does strike home the overall harshness of our climate.  Spring is just so damn slow to materialize in these parts.  Here we are approaching 2 months to the summer solstice and we've endured a battering ram of cold rain, snow squalls, and gusty winds going on 2 days.  Maybe having my daughter studying abroad in the Netherlands, at a much more northern latitude at that, reporting all sorts of spring wonders (sun, frequent temps in the 60's to 70, full green-up) for the last 3 weeks has soured my view on our climate. 

Our positioning in the global wave train coming out of northern hemisphere winter just...hurts.  It's like the frozen water of James Bay is a giant middle finger pointed right at us.  We have to endure weeks and weeks of damp, gray, disgusting discharge from the Canadian prairies as the seasons slowly change...All while plebians in D.C. just an hour plane ride to the south get high on the scent of cherry blossoms, and Euro's in Amsterdam several tics of latitude to our north get high on...other stuff.    

Ok, rant over...

Pretty much agree with all of this.  We also seem to have a couple of curiosities repeating: 1) early snows in November causing us to go from final lawn mowing / leaf raking to serious snow blowing in about a week's time and, 2) the XMas holidays warmup again, from mid December thru first week of January. 

I give this past winter a B grade.  I had average snowfall IMBY (135.5") and w/in a few inches of last year's total. Can't complain about that. The downside was frequent cutters which slammed snowpack repeatedly.  We had a few arctic outbreaks and it all started pre-Thanksgiving yet again and lasted thru most of March.  

That said, I usually give our Spring weather a D for the reasons Buffalo Bumble stated.  70s and sun forecasted for tomorrow though. So we are slowly ramping up.

Here's to a hot & dry Global Warming summer! (Yes, I have a pool in one of the cloudiest areas of the US). 

[Buffalo Bumble]

4 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Pretty much agree with all of this.  We also seem to have a couple of curiosities repeating: 1) early snows in November causing us to go from final lawn mowing / leaf raking to serious snow blowing in about a week's time and, 2) the XMas holidays warmup again, from mid December thru first week of January. 

I give this past winter a B grade.  I had average snowfall IMBY (135.5") and w/in a few inches of last year's total. Can't complain about that. The downside was frequent cutters which slammed snowpack repeatedly.  We had a few arctic outbreaks and it all started pre-Thanksgiving yet again and lasted thru most of March.  

That said, I usually give our Spring weather a D for the reasons Buffalo Bumble stated.  70s and sun forecasted for tomorrow though. So we are slowly ramping up.

Here's to a hot & dry Global Warming summer! (Yes, I have a pool in one of the cloudiest areas of the US). 

These 2 maps give a good clue I think for why springtime weather (e.g. March 21 to early May) in upstate NY trends towards tragic so often.  That's still a solid snow pack just upstream.  Depths right now are mapped over 1' near the southern extent.  I'm guessing the relatively colder air over that pack plays a big role in our weather - pathway for storms, reservoir of winter chill ready and willing to drip south into our neighborhoods, etc. 

The orientation of the snow pack is interesting as well.  You can see how the frigid air over the Canadian Archipelago bleeds south over James Bay on a pathway to the Great Lakes.

The hemisphere snow cover map is interesting as well.  Note that snow cover approaches the 45th latitude only in our neck of the woods this time of year...

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just booked a trip to Hawaii, leave next Saturday. Time to explore the big island! ☀️☀️

[DeltaT13]

Sunday is starting to get interesting. Right on the cusp of some accumulating snows. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

26 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Sunday is starting to get interesting. Right on the cusp of some accumulating snows. 

Looks to be close but I think this thing is gonna be just too far west. I think anything more substantial than scattered wet flakes will be found over S Ontario and Lower Michigan. 

[wolfie09]

Picked up about half inch liquid with last night's cold front, you could really feel that cold Canadian air on the backside.

Sitting in the upper 30's at the moment with a strong brisk wind, full overcast. 

Looks like a chilly next 7 days with mostly low-mid 50s (one day in the upper 40's) and lows averaging out in the low-mid 30's.

[cny rider]

16 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Sunday is starting to get interesting. Right on the cusp of some accumulating snows. 

That's not funny.

 

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

That's not funny.

 

Elevation event...

[vortmax]

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A compact system seems set to advance right along the NY/PA
border very early in the long term period. The ECMWF and GFS
have trended together in a very tight cluster with regard to
this solution. This is a cold deviation from previous guidance
and suggests a swath of very strongly forced frontogenetical
precipitation to the north of the surface low track. Thermal
profiles with these solutions suggest rapid cooling during the
day Sunday aloft with precipitation transitioning from rain to
snow. Given the dynamics and possibility of dynamical cooling,
it would seem fairly impressive snowfall could be possible out
of this solution. However, given the strong deviation from
previous runs of the models and the likelihood of the solutions
wobbling in the coming days for this period, the forecast was
only trended colder with some possibility of a rain/snow mix
introduced over western New York.

[rochesterdave]

I’m back. 

[rochesterdave]

On 4/23/2019 at 1:38 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Just booked a trip to Hawaii, leave next Saturday. Time to explore the big island! ☀️☀️

I f’ing love Hawaii. I’ve only been to Maui but it’s heaven on earth. Prices are good. Food is great. The Ocean there is phenomenal! 

Just that 16 hr plane ride. Ouch

[DeltaT13]

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I f’ing love Hawaii. I’ve only been to Maui but it’s heaven on earth. Prices are good. Food is great. The Ocean there is phenomenal! 

Just that 16 hr plane ride. Ouch

I was hoping youd stop in for this last gasp of winter.  I think Hawaii is "only" about 12, (haha not that big of a difference I guess).  

[rochesterdave]

Yeah. With lay-overs it’s crazy. It took me 18 hrs once on the way there. I recommend the red eye or an overnight layover in SF or Seattle. 

Great hotels in Hawaii. For 300/night you can be a high roller. I’m a real hotel snob and Maui doesn’t disappoint. I’m sure the Big Island is similar. 

The whales and dolphins are incredible too. The whales will have migrated north by now but you can snorkel in that sapphire blue water- it’ll cleanse your soul. 

I like the set up for Sunday. The timing stinks. Middle of the day. We can still get pasted. That’d be fun and maybe kick down some of the allergens floating around. 

I’m rambling. 

[DeltaT13]

9 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. With lay-overs it’s crazy. It took me 18 hrs once on the way there. I recommend the red eye or an overnight layover in SF or Seattle. 

Great hotels in Hawaii. For 300/night you can be a high roller. I’m a real hotel snob and Maui doesn’t disappoint. I’m sure the Big Island is similar. 

The whales and dolphins are incredible too. The whales will have migrated north by now but you can snorkel in that sapphire blue water- it’ll cleanse your soul. 

I like the set up for Sunday. The timing stinks. Middle of the day. We can still get pasted. That’d be fun and maybe kick down some of the allergens floating around. 

I’m rambling. 

Oh damn, you're including layovers.  Yeah, that can make any trip a seemingly never ending nightmare.  

[BuffaloWeather]

We leave Toronto at 7 am and land on the big island at 2 Pm, there is an hour layover in San Fran. Going to hike up mount Mauna Kea, we are renting a 4*4 jeep to get to the top, might still have some snow up there? Almost 14000 feet. Going to swim with Manta Rays, do the space observatory, whale watch, hike through the rainforest, and possibly helicopter ride over the active volcano. 

[BuffaloWeather]

10 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. With lay-overs it’s crazy. It took me 18 hrs once on the way there. I recommend the red eye or an overnight layover in SF or Seattle. 

Great hotels in Hawaii. For 300/night you can be a high roller. I’m a real hotel snob and Maui doesn’t disappoint. I’m sure the Big Island is similar. 

The whales and dolphins are incredible too. The whales will have migrated north by now but you can snorkel in that sapphire blue water- it’ll cleanse your soul. 

I like the set up for Sunday. The timing stinks. Middle of the day. We can still get pasted. That’d be fun and maybe kick down some of the allergens floating around. 

I’m rambling. 

We got an incredible deal at a hotel we're going for 8 nights and its $1900 total for 2 people with flight and hotel. We usually do Air bnbs/Hostels. 

[rochesterdave]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We got an incredible deal at a hotel we're going for 8 nights and its $1900 total for 2 people with flight and hotel. We usually do Air bnbs/Hostels. 

Wow. That’s great. Itinerary sounds amazing! 

[vortmax]

12z GFS trending south

 

FV3 right over WNY:

 

CMC similar to FV3:

[BuffaloWeather]

Episode 3 of game of thrones Sunday with snow falling outside is going to be some epic stuff. The battle of winterfell takes place in a snowstorm. I’m all for it haha 

[BuffaloWeather]

May 7th 1988-89 year Buffalo saw a storm bring 7.9" of snow. Rochester received 10".  What's bigger of an anomaly that storm or October 2006 in terms of climatology not impact? 

Average high/low:

May 7th/8th: 64/44

Oct 12/13: 60/44 

[lakeeffectkid383]

What does anyone think the odds are BUF and ROC even see an inch from this? 

 

I’d put it at 10% or less given the time of day most of the precip is expected to fall. 

[DeltaT13]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

May 7th 1988-89 year Buffalo saw a storm bring 7.9" of snow. Rochester received 10".  What's bigger of an anomaly that storm or October 2006 in terms of climatology not impact? 

Average high/low:

May 7th/8th: 64/44

Oct 12/13: 60/44 

I think the bigger anomaly certainly belongs to the event that was coming out of the warm season.  It takes an incredible setup to find adequate cold when there is virtually no arctic snowpack and the Northern Hemisphere just recently came out of 24 hours of daylight and heating (for the previous 4 months).  An event in May is certainly noteworthy and rare but it happens in much closer proximity the cold season.  

The October snowstorm is the top weather event of my lifetime, hands down. Absolutely blew my mind at the time and still does.  

[rochesterdave]

October storm was a Stage 100 anomaly. I mean, that will never be repeated. That was insane. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, rochesterdave said:

October storm was a Stage 100 anomaly. I mean, that will never be repeated. That was insane. 

 But technically speaking May 7/8th has a warmer average then October 12/13 does. An interesting discussion for sure. 

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I think the bigger anomaly certainly belongs to the event that was coming out of the warm season.  It takes an incredible setup to find adequate cold when there is virtually no arctic snowpack and the Northern Hemisphere just recently came out of 24 hours of daylight and heating (for the previous 4 months).  An event in May is certainly noteworthy and rare but it happens in much closer proximity the cold season.  

The October snowstorm is the top weather event of my lifetime, hands down. Absolutely blew my mind at the time and still does.  

May 7/8th is only 6 weeks from the suns peak angle in the sky on June 21st. It's extremely rare to get accumulating snow at this latitude in almost the middle of May. While we do not have the most consistent cold climate, we basically have a chance of snow in 8 out of 12 months. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Day 3 

[BuffaloWeather]

Saturday night, a potent and compact mid-level short wave will zip through the Great Lakes region. This wave is modeled across the board to feature very strong system relative isentropic ascent, and an impressive trowal within a strengthening deformation zone. The current forecast surface low track, just south of the New York State border will allow for a developing northerly flow component which will be key in lowering surface dewpoints. Given forecast thermodynamics and timing, suspect that a move more toward rain/snow or even all snow at least for higher elevations might be needed. If this is in indeed the case, the general model liquid precipitation consensus of near a half inch or more is a bit concerning. Probably will need some finer adjustment as we move closer to the event with some mesoscale modeling. For now, will hedge the higher elevations a bit higher on snowfall amounts in the 2-3" range, but this might need to be nudged even further. Stay Tuned.

[vortmax]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Saturday night, a potent and compact mid-level short wave will zip through the Great Lakes region. This wave is modeled across the board to feature very strong system relative isentropic ascent, and an impressive trowal within a strengthening deformation zone. The current forecast surface low track, just south of the New York State border will allow for a developing northerly flow component which will be key in lowering surface dewpoints. Given forecast thermodynamics and timing, suspect that a move more toward rain/snow or even all snow at least for higher elevations might be needed. If this is in indeed the case, the general model liquid precipitation consensus of near a half inch or more is a bit concerning. Probably will need some finer adjustment as we move closer to the event with some mesoscale modeling. For now, will hedge the higher elevations a bit higher on snowfall amounts in the 2-3" range, but this might need to be nudged even further. Stay Tuned.

Always something interesting going on when the AFD ends with "Stay Tuned".

[DeltaT13]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

May 7/8th is only 6 weeks from the suns peak angle in the sky on June 21st. It's extremely rare to get accumulating snow at this latitude in almost the middle of May. While we do not have the most consistent cold climate, we basically have a chance of snow in 8 out of 12 months. 

It's hard to explain but a snow event at the end of winter just seems much more plausible than a snow event at the end of summer.  The atmosphere is only 2 months removed from the deep freeze in May while the atmosphere and hemisphere is 6 months removed from the cold in Early October.  I just feel the October storm is apples to Oranges when compared to a May snowfall.  Not to mention the October storm had nearly 2 feet of incredible low ratio snow.   As a side note, Whiteface Mountain got 36 inches of snow the last week of May in 2013. 

I am attaching a graph from Mt Mansfield.  Does snow/cold seem more likely in May or October?  I'll let you be the judge (make sure to consider the months before each time period).   Anyway, its a very interesting topic and I'm glad you brought it up.