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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

EPS with surface tracks

 

eps_mslp_lows_conus_90 (1).png

eps_mslp_lows_conus_96 (1).png

So basically the stronger the storm the further the NW and the weaker the further SE. Like you said earlier though the Euro does have a tendency to over amp these things especially in the 3-5 day range so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it amp up a little more at 12z and maybe even 00z tonight and then start crawling back SE. 

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One thing that has me holding hope is the Euro was the first to sniff out this weekend being colder while the GFS had a cutter storm and 45 to 50 Saturday...it has since shoved the low track well east while the euro then settled on its current track...if I'm a betting man I think this is the euros storm just like the GFS was right with yesterdays storm.

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Final tally

..Allegany County...
   Rushford               5.0   800 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Wellsville             5.0   500 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Angelica               4.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Whitesville            4.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Alfred                 4.3   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   4 SW West Almond       3.3   900 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Cattaraugus County...
   Perrysburg             6.2   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   1 NNE Franklinville    5.5   636 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Little Valley          4.0   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Cattaraugus            4.0   800 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   SSE Ischua             3.7   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 ENE Randolph         2.5   730 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Chautauqua County...
   3 N Celoron            4.0   600 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Silver Creek           4.0   730 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   1 WNW Fredonia         4.0   500 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   4 ENE Jamestown        3.9   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   1 SW Dunkirk           3.5   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 S Dunkirk            3.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   5 WSW Randolph         3.5   745 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Falconer               3.0   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Erie County...
   2 NW Tonawanda         6.5   742 AM  2/28  Trained Spotter
   Wales                  6.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   1 W West Seneca        6.4   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 W Colden             6.4   730 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   2 SSE East Aurora      6.1   900 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   3 E Williamsville      6.0   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   ENE East Aurora        5.8   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   3 WSW Elma             5.8   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   4 ESE North Boston     5.7   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 NW Kenmore           5.7   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   3 NNE East Aurora      5.6   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 SSE Eden             5.5   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   5 NNE Amherst          5.5   800 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Buffalo Airport        5.3   654 AM  2/28  ASOS
   WSW Hamburg            5.2   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   3 NW Hamburg           5.1   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   2 NW Cheektowaga       5.0   730 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Alden                  5.0   714 AM  2/28  Trained Spotter
   2 NE Boston            5.0   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   2 SSW Blasdell         5.0   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   ESE Kenmore            4.5   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Akron                  4.5   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 ESE East Aurora      2.0   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Genesee County...
   2 NE Stafford          8.6   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 NW Batavia           7.5   730 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   1 E Le Roy             6.7   800 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer

...Jefferson County...
   ENE West Carthage      4.6   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Lewis County...
   1 E Osceola            8.0   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Highmarket             7.2   537 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Lowville               7.0   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Chases Lake            5.6   600 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   5 SSW Harrisville      3.3   530 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Livingston County...
   1 ENE Dansville        6.4   750 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Avon                   6.0   730 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Lima                   6.0   700 AM  2/28  Trained Spotter
   2 W Mount Morris       5.0   800 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer

...Monroe County...
   Brockport              9.5   900 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   4 SSE Pittsford        9.0   830 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   2 NE Honeoye Falls     7.1   500 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Rochester Airport      7.1   654 AM  2/28  ASOS
   Scottsville            6.3   900 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Niagara County...
   Lockport               7.5   806 AM  2/28  Trained Spotter
   4 NE Sanborn           6.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Niagara Falls Airpor   6.0   653 AM  2/28  ASOS
   3 WNW Lockport         6.0   820 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   North Tonawanda        5.8   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   3 ESE Lockport         5.2   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   6 E Niagara Falls      5.0   825 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Ontario County...
   Honeoye                8.0   816 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Geneva Research Farm   7.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   West Bloomfield        6.1   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer

...Orleans County...
   Medina                 7.1   600 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   WNW Medina             4.6   800 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Lakeside               4.0   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer

...Oswego County...
   5 ESE Oswego           8.2   600 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Fulton                 7.4   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   8 N Redfield           7.4   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   1 NE Pulaski           7.0   800 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   3 SW Redfield          6.5   700 AM  2/28  Trained Spotter
   W Fulton               6.5   645 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   4 SSE Lacona           6.4   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   Bennetts Bridge        6.0   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   SE Minetto             6.0   800 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Wayne County...
   2 SW Walworth          8.4   700 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   2 NW Palmyra           7.5   810 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS
   3 ESE Macedon          6.8   535 AM  2/28  CoCoRaHS

...Wyoming County...
   Warsaw                 7.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   3 W Wyoming            7.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   7 SW Attica            5.5   600 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   Portageville           4.8   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
   3 N Silver Springs     4.5   700 AM  2/28  Co-Op Observer
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IDK. We are still in the game. Obviously, the best stuff looks to be SE but we are just a normal adjustment to be in a moderate snowstorm. 

As said before, enhancement should be good for adding a few inches. First call 4-8”. It’s a reasonable track and actually has a pretty broad precip field. 

Not a blockbuster...

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah, the more I look, the less hopeful I am. It’s the damn progressive pattern. That freaking driving jet. No blocking. Western ridges keep getting shredded. 

Im gonna hope on amplification which is nutty but (and I know you guys hate this) climatologically this is great timing for a big one! 

Yup. No blocking to help us this winter.

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 Model guidance has started to come into a bit
better agreement and with that better confidence exists that
our area will be on the borderline of getting advisory level
snow accumulations. For the moment, it seems most of the area
stands a good shot at getting some snow, but the southeastern
portions of the area should yield the best chance at more
substantial accumulation. With northeasterly flow ahead of the
system, cooling of the column and sinking dendritic layer into
the saturation should yield much higher SLRs than the previous
system, so QPF will be the main problem. Model guidance still
has varying solutions with regard to this, and the northwesterly
extent of backside deformation will likely determine this. That
said, a light to moderate snowfall seems most likely to
result...with the heavier accumulations off to our south and
east.
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16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

With this past system, flake size was not really that spectacular until the last few hours overnight. I imagine SLRs improved greatly at that point.

Compared to a few storms this season, the flake size wasn't that bad yesterday here. Certainly not the sh*tty rice snow we've seen here on more than one occasion with synoptic systems.

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Compared to a few storms this season, the flake size wasn't that bad yesterday here. Certainly not the sh*tty rice snow we've seen here on more than one occasion with synoptic systems.

Still looked like we had that snow during the day here. Seem to be battling dry cold air pushing in here with those NEly winds.

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Such a persistent cold regime will also lead to a daily potential
for at least some lake snows east and southeast of the lakes...
with this looking to be best later Monday night through Tuesday
night when available moisture will be most favorable. This said...
there also remains considerable uncertainty in wind direction and
consequently the placement of any lake effect...and there is also
the matter of Lake Erie mostly being ice covered...which will help
to limit the response off that particular lake. With all of the
above in mind have thus mostly continued with a mixed bag of chance
PoPs downwind of the lakes...save for east of Lake Ontario on Tuesday
when the more favorable synoptic moisture and more open waters
of that lake appear supportive of a period of likely probabilities.
Outside of any lake effect areas there may be some more general
snow showers on Tuesday in tandem with the approach/passage of a
trough and the aforementioned increase in moisture...with mainly
dry conditions otherwise prevailing.
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