CNY_WX Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 It’s getting to the time of the year where these minor events aren’t even worth the effort. The increasing sun angle will melt a couple of inches of snow as soon as it comes out. We still have 3-4 weeks to realistically get something big so that’s what I’m living for. 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: There is your storm on the euro .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Yeah i agree but at this point i'm just trying to pad the stats I don't care how much stays on the ground lol.. I'm more of a snow falling guy then snowdepth.. 80% of the fun for me is the chase.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Damn Matt can't even win when it comes to wind Haha...I don't know what the deal has been with this area...except for so much SW wind. I have no desire to experience high wind events though...not my weather passion...too much destruction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 It's inevitable we get a 2fter by the end of the year, yeah ok, lol. Our biggest event happened in November so just deal with it and move onSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Model guidance has been incredibly consistent on this event over the past 4-5 days, and continues to result in a high confidence forecast for high impact wind gusts. Peak wind gusts are likely to reach 75 mph on the lake plains northeast of the lakes. This includes the Lake Erie shore extending northeast across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester, and also in Jefferson County northeast of Lake Ontario. Winds will not be quite as strong farther inland away from the lake plains, but still easily warning criteria with peak gusts of up to 65 mph across the higher terrain of the interior Southern Tier, western Finger Lakes, and points southeast of Lake Ontario to Lewis County. The strongest winds on the lake plains will be Sunday afternoon when wind direction is WSW. The strongest winds from the interior Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes and southeast of Lake Ontario will be Sunday night when winds become due westerly. Winds of this magnitude will produce widespread power outages that may last for days, along with extensive tree and powerline damage. Property damage to shingles and siding is likely, and buildings under construction and older buildings that are starting to deteriorate may experience significant damage. RAIN... A wing of warm advection will reach the western Southern Tier late this afternoon, then spread across the rest of the area this evening. This initial area of isentropic upglide will produce a few scattered rain showers. East of Lake Ontario, temperatures should rise above freezing prior to the arrival of showers, with any freezing rain risk farther east in northern NY. Another stronger push of warm advection and isentropic upglide, along with DPVA ahead of the strong trough, will spread across the eastern Great Lakes late tonight and continue through early Sunday morning. This will produce more widespread rain showers across the region, with rainfall amounts of around a quarter inch common, a little higher in upslope areas. The warm advection rain will quickly end from southwest to northeast Sunday morning. There will likely be another narrow band of rain showers right along the surface cold front later in the day. TEMPERATURES... The temperature trend over the next 36 hours will be decidedly non- diurnal. Temperatures tonight will rise steadily in a strong warm advection regime ahead of the system. Temperatures will start this evening in the 30s, then rise well into the 40s by late tonight. Highs will occur Sunday morning just ahead of the cold front, reaching at least the mid to upper 50s in most areas. A few 60 degree readings cannot be ruled out in downslope areas on the lake plains. Behind the cold front, temperatures will nose dive in the afternoon, reaching the lower 30s by early evening across Western NY and upper 30s across central NY and east of Lake Ontario. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 20s in most areas. LAKE EFFECT SNOW... Strong cold advection behind the system will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 8K feet over Lake Erie and 10K feet over Lake Ontario Sunday night. Ample synoptic scale moisture will be found in the wrap around regime of the system as the main mid level trough crosses the region. Off Lake Ontario... Temperatures aloft will get cold enough to support a lake response by early Sunday evening. Initial WSW boundary layer flow will focus the early part of the event across Jefferson County and the northern Tug Hill. Boundary layer flow will veer westerly overnight into early Monday morning, focusing the majority of the intensifying lake response on the Tug Hill. Upslope flow will play an important role in enhancing snowfall amounts, with true warning criteria snow likely confined to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau. The very strong winds will be a much bigger concern than actual snowfall amounts. Winds gusting to over 60 mph Sunday night will likely produce blizzard conditions in and near lake effect snow bands and in the upslope zone of the Tug Hill Plateau. The only question is whether the lake effect bands can be persistent enough in any one area to produce blizzard conditions for 3 or more continuous hours, which is part of the criteria. The upslope flow into the Tug Hill should keep the snow fairly persistent across the higher terrain even if the pure lake effect snow bands are being fractured by the strong winds. With this in mind, the Winter Storm Watch east of Lake Ontario has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. The worst conditions will focus on the Tug Hill region, including southern Jefferson, northern Oswego, and western Lewis counties. Off Lake Erie... The lake currently has extensive ice cover, but the very strong winds will likely result in the fracturing of the ice field with plenty of openings developing. In addition, conditions are favorable for an upstream connection to Lake Michigan banding, along with some enhancement from synoptic scale convergence near the base of the mid level trough. The snow amounts will be contingent on the idea that breaks will develop in the ice field, but that seems like a reasonable assumption given the strength of the wind event. The airmass will become cold enough to support a lake response by mid to late afternoon Sunday. Boundary layer flow is initially WSW, which will bring some snow to most of Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties. When there is ice on the lake, lake effect snow often develops farther north than one would expect for a given wind direction, because an opening in the ice will often develop ENE of Long Point. Overnight Sunday night boundary layer flow will veer more westerly, carrying the lake effect snow showers into Southern Erie, Wyoming counties and the western Southern Tier. Snowfall amounts may reach 1-3 inches in parts of Northern Erie and Genesee counties, with 3-5 inches across the higher terrain well south of Buffalo and Batavia into the Chautauqua Ridge. The snow amounts are not the issue however, significant blowing and drifting snow will be the main concern. With this in mind, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late Sunday through early Monday for the blowing snow. Conditions may approach blizzard at times, but the weaker lake response will likely not allow these conditions to last for very long at any given location. 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wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 High pressure will extend east to our area from the northern plains on Wednesday. While this is the most consistent solution...there are packages that depict a weak inverted trough splitting the feature. This would result in a little snow across our region later Wednesday and Wednesday night...but given the inconsistency with this solution and the fact that it is somewhat of an outlier...will back off on pops and only use slight chc 20s. Again...this is a low confidence solution for Wednesday afternoon and night...so be sure to check back for a more concrete forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 I hear ya on the bitching. I’m in it for snow. I’ll just check out for a bit. Maybe like 8 months.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Where have i seen this before..Hmmmm..lol 3k hates me more that matt haha If i have learned anything this year it's congrats mexico/parish lol Snippet from Buffalo Quote lake effect snow often develops farther north than one would expect for a given wind direction, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Rgem by 1 pm monday.. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 A nice band on a WNW flow develops monday afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 lowered totals again , lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Winds are gonna be too strong for any kind of strong band to develop, but we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 They have me just in the 4"-6" range which is exactly what the 3k shows and little less than the rgem, so probably not terrible here. They haven't caught on to the wnw band yet, tomorrow they will have Fulton at a foot, watch lol Actually the map only goes till 4pm, rgem develops the band in the early afternoon hours, so we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: A nice band on a WNW flow develops monday afternoon.. Yeah right over my house so its NOT gonna happen! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Cutter...WSW flow...weak West flow with nothing substantial and quick veering to the WNW...weak low a day or two later that teases...super cold night...24 hours later temp hits 50 as cutter moves in to start all over again. Winter 2019. Bank on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 9 hours ago, CNY_WX said: My house kept power during the Labor Day derecho in 98 so we’ll see how we make out this time. At least I had a backup sump pump installed last summer that runs off my municipal water so I shouldn’t have to worry about my basement flooding again. I was in a cabin in the southern edge of the ADKs in the forest by a pond when the Labor Day Derecho blew thru in the wee hours of the a.m. Cabin had a bit of a basement...and we got into it...That was one impressive storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Winds are gonna be too strong for any kind of strong band to develop, but we'll see. Agreed. We've seen this before with high wind LES. Seems to underperform unless you are pretty far from the lake and get some elevation lift (Tug and hills S&E of SYR). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Getting emails from nyseg. Expecting major widespread power outages lasting for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Getting emails from nyseg. Expecting major widespread power outages lasting for days. Great. ;( Family is vacationing at Greek Peak this week so hoping we don't lose power here. Wind should be weaker here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 One thing in your guys favor is the wind will be dying down Monday afternoon/evening when flow become more favorable.. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Winds will be high up to 70 all the way to sodus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Blah! There goes my first 3 stops for chasing tomorrow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 This guy NEVER hypes up a storm so to see this is concerning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Meso models look pretty good for the tug and southern parts of the county with your usual "rip off zone"..Let's see how it pans out. I picked one just for freak... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 We will just have to wait till Sunday night-monday to see how the lake responds..I would think we should all see at least a few inches in Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Even a inch of snow is going to cause near blizzard conditions in these winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 As bad as the winds will be I’m really concerned about the lake shore flood potential... current forecast is for a 9-11 foot storm surge. This is impossible to model with the ice cover. Here is what canal side looks like when at 7.5-8 feet. If we hit the higher end it could get quiet scary. Also good to note at the 12’ mark canal side would be under water and the lake surge would start to flood the harbor center area and push towards downtown...NYZ001-010-019-085-241000-/O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0001.190224T1200Z-190225T0900Z/Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-652 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO4 AM EST MONDAY...* LOCATIONS...Lake Erie shore in Erie and Chautauqua counties and the Upper Niagara River in Erie and Niagara counties.* LAKE SHORE FLOODING...Powerful southwest winds will gust up to 75 mph. This will result in the water level at Buffalo rising to 9 to 11 feet above low water datum. This rise will also break up ice on Lake Erie and result in significant ice movement.* TIMING...From 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday.* IMPACTS...Lakeshore flooding is expected along the Lake Erie shoreline, including the Buffalo Harbor and waterfront. If water levels exceed 10 feet above low water datum flooding may occur in the Old First Ward section of Buffalo and at Canalside. Rising waters will also push ice chunks onshore, potentially damaging structures. Ice will also get pushed across the ice boom and into the Upper Niagara River resulting in damage along the Upper Niagara River shoreline. The ice may dam up at river outlets and result in flooding near river mouths.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Link for the ice boom and upper Niagara River cams..https://iceboom.nypa.gov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 What's Amazing is duration. 24 hours of 60 plus winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 It's weak but could dump few/several inches region wide.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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