BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 High wind warnings have just been issued for the area. Gusts as high as 75 expected. Should be the strongest wind event in a few years ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Jefferson, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua counties. * TIMING...From early Sunday morning through early Monday morning. * WINDS...West 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph. The 00Z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deep low across Lake Michigan and near the SOO Saturday night and Sunday, with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sunday night. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF as well as the Canadian model all deepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening. This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hPa temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees Celsius through the day), forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail (down to near 500 hPa) across the region will transport very strong winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the late morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5 PV tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1K feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of Lake Erie and across the Lake Plain. Several past high wind events have shown up in the CIPS analogs, including high wind events of Feb 10th 2001, Feb 1 2002, Jan 9 2008. The Jan 9th event at the surface looks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the SOO that deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high building across the Plains is stronger for our event Sunday...which will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence that wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible. Long range looks cold with quite a few chances of snow if we can get on the right side of the gradient. SE ridge will have to help out or the systems will scoot too far SE. Winter is far from over, I expect a much below normal March with greater than normal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 It’s super hard to break a pattern. Cutter after cutter. This winter sure has been annoying. Flagstaff got hammered with nearly 3 feet! I feel like this winter has been classic El Niño crap. I guess the SE ridge is complicit as is the raging jet and no blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 After the initial wave of rain crosses the region Sunday, a dry slot may bring a temporary period of rainfree weather before moisture wraps back around our region with at first rain showers that will quickly transition to snow. Temperatures at 850 hPa will plummet to -15C over the Lakes which will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake effect snow parameters become favorable bands of snow will form to the east and then southeast of the Lakes. Ice on Lake Erie should limit the snow to just a few inches across Ski Country. However open waters of Lake Ontario and a west to northwest flow over the long axis of the Lake should bring a band of light to moderate snow inland. East of Lake Ontario snow accumulations could exceed advisory range...and will include this in the HWO. Of concern will be the still strong winds within this lake snow. These winds will create significant blowing of snow that will greatly reduce visibilities. Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm system moves into the Canadian Maritimes. A very tight pressure gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting initially 45 to 60 mph early Monday morning down to 20 to 35 mph Monday evening. Pressure rises will slow down Monday evening and winds will finally settle down. Cold air advection will also be occurring Monday and Monday night with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -15 deg C by Monday evening. Northwest flow across the Lakes will result in lake snows especially east/southeast of Lake Ontario. Additional accumulations will be minor Monday, with perhaps just another inch or two southeast of Lake Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 UP is getting another 2'. Some depths up there might approach 80-90". I think the first few cut then we get a few ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s super hard to break a pattern. Cutter after cutter. This winter sure has been annoying. Flagstaff got hammered with nearly 3 feet! I feel like this winter has been classic El Niño crap. I guess the SE ridge is complicit as is the raging jet and no blocking. It has not been acting like an El Nino at all actually. It's acting like a La Nina with SE ridging. Weak/Mod El Ninos are typically Upstate NY best snowfall years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Typically La Nina pattern (SE RIDGE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Strong Ninas and Strong Ninos are both pretty bad for the region as a whole in terms of snowfall, especially Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 58 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s super hard to break a pattern. Cutter after cutter. This winter sure has been annoying. Flagstaff got hammered with nearly 3 feet! I feel like this winter has been classic El Niño crap. I guess the SE ridge is complicit as is the raging jet and no blocking. Flagstaff gets a lot of snow, but they have snowpack loss way worse than we get in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I wish it was acting like a Nino, lol! Sunday can definitely get interesting around these parts with snow, blowing and drifting, definitely reducing vis's down to 0 at times Sunday Night through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Well the Pacific flow is now surely El Niño, and it has been near weak El Niño all winter. I hate El Niño winters. They straight up suck for Rochester during my life. I think the strong jet is a lot of our issue. Everything is progressive and if we do get a storm to catch, it’s way early. I agree- the graphics don’t look like El Niño, but it feels like El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Well the Pacific flow is now surely El Niño, and it has been near weak El Niño all winter. I hate El Niño winters. They straight up suck for Rochester during my life. I think the strong jet is a lot of our issue. Everything is progressive and if we do get a storm to catch, it’s way early. I agree- the graphics don’t look like El Niño, but it feels like El Niño. Pull up Rochesters snowfall for El Nino vs La Nina. I can almost guarentee El Ninos are better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-10-30-el-nino-snow-impact Good article clearly states that El Niño is less snow and La Niña is more snowy for BUF and SYR, Roc isn’t analyses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-10-30-el-nino-snow-impact Good article clearly states that El Niño is less snow and La Niña is more snowy for BUF and SYR, Roc isn’t analyses. I ran the numbers awhile ago for Buffalo and Weak El Ninos are Buffalos best snowfall years. So that article is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 The above data set does not include the last 2 years. This year will add another positive departure for weak ninos in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Times are changing that's for sure.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 ^^^^ I think that's way too generalized a statement based on on that data. The density of those points on both graphs points towards nearly complete randomness, not any sort of trend. The R value of that line is prob like .01. (1 being perfect for regression line) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 I think we see a few snow storms in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Quite a bit of loose ice on the lake. 75 MPH winds are going to push that pretty far onshore near Buffalo. Think I'll head to the lake shore on Sunday to witness that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Quite a bit of loose ice on the lake. 75 MPH winds are going to push that pretty far onshore near Buffalo. Think I'll head to the lake shore on Sunday to witness that. Suppose to work till 5 tomorrow thinking I’ll take a late lunch and maybe forget to come back instead. Let me know if your heading out. I’m planning to start down by the peace bridge and work my way south depending on how the conditions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 All i know is Kalb 30 yr avg went down like 5"-6" and the same can be said for Kuca.. Meanwhile they are doubling thier long range avg's along the coast..(over the last decade) Where i lived down in cnj , over the last decade, they have seen Five 60"(two of them 70") seasons with a long term avg of 22".. Some parts of LI avg 45-50" over the last 10 years, two-three times above the norm.. Something is going on lol We live in a much more "micro-climate" years vary greatly.. Fulton for example has seen only One 200" year in the last 12 but 5 such instances the previous 11.. All four years here have been below avg lol Is what it is.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Suppose to work till 5 tomorrow thinking I’ll take a late lunch and maybe forget to come back instead. Let me know if your heading out. I’m planning to start down by the peace bridge and work my way south depending on how the conditions are. It doesn't hit until Sunday. Tomorrow the winds won't be strong at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: All i know is Kalb 30 yr avg went down like 5"-6" and the same can be said for Kuca.. Meanwhile they are doubling thier long range avg's along the coast..(over the last decade) Where i lived down in cnj , over the last decade, they have seen Five 60"(two of them 70") seasons with a long term avg of 22".. Some parts of LI avg 45-50" over the last 10 years, two-three times above the norm.. Something is going on lol We live in a much more "micro-climate" years vary greatly.. Fulton for example has seen only One 200" year in the last 12 but 5 such instances the previous 11.. All four years here have been below avg lol Is what it is.. Tough to classify a "norm" or trend based on such a small sample size. It's the reason climate changers have such a hard time grasping onto data when the earth has been here for billions of years, and concrete data only goes back so far. You need thousands/millions of years of data when you're dealing with something like climate/weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 It doesn't hit until Sunday. Tomorrow the winds won't be strong at all. Got my days all screwed up. Not use to a warning being posted so early. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 East of Lake Ontario, there is a little more concern for near blizzard conditions into Monday morning due to higher gusts together with a lake response owing to the approaching cold pool aloft. The highest concern is currently on the south side of the Tug Hill Plateau south to the ESE shoreline to either NE Wayne and/or Northern Cayuga, with a focus on Oswego County. Amounts should be manageable, but the near blizzard conditions will likely be a concern throughout the day from blowing snow, and possibly into Monday evening, after which winds should finally drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Kbuf loves to go with the "high end" on their expected snow maps, every single event..This one is no different. Probably why they bust every event lol 35% probability of 4" for Pulaski.. 0% probability of 6".. Expected snow 5".. If my P&C shows 2"-5" u better believe the snow map will show 5" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Even if we get several inches of snow it won't look like it, as it will blown 3 counties away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 23, 2019 Share Posted February 23, 2019 Crazy how well this storm got locked in so far out on all the models. Nothing like the suspense waiting for this to hit. Local media is hyping the holy hell out of this storm. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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