psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah that map hurts...lol Analog begone! Good analogs only from now on (I mean sure 4 inches would put a lot of us at or above 20", but two misses to the south to bookend the beginning and end of the season would still be torturous, lol) 1958 shows up and that had a weird hybrid miller b that started as a system way west and phased into a coastal. But it takes a monster phase to make that work. 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Not gonna lie, that D8 storm does hurt a bit. Showing up on the Euro, but rain from a coastal. Good news is, we still have hope (and time) for some changes. Yep when people mentioned all the hits on the ensembles in that time period...nobody mentioned rain storms lol The hits I’ve seen are all AFTER that. It’s been mostly a rain look for that March 1-2 storm all along. It’s close enough with a major amplified system to watch and the euro is kind of trending the right way but it’s after that storm that was the better threat. 31 minutes ago, frd said: To balance things out some, bluewave posted this a few hours ago, and it is a thought provoking observation. Seems this has indeed been an issue all winter long. The absence of any +PNA . The screaming and powerful Pac jet tears down any attempt at it. I almost wonder if maybe it takes away the favorable window for early March. To flow really needs to slow. Thinking about what HM posted too, I wonder if although the MJO is in phase 1 and then proceeds to phase 2 if we do not get a look that is typical with that type of composite. Some fear the +PNA I myslef not sure what to think this winter. Posted from bluewave starting here : <<<<<< Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at snow. Notice how the fast flow weakened the PNA ridge models were showing a few days ago. New run Old run >>>>>> I think he is mostly talking about NYC. There were some runs that had snow there from the miller b for them. Except a couple flukes a few days ago the majority of guidance has always not been favorable for us with that threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Eps was a noticeable improvement over last run. Shotguns snowstorms all over the east day 8-14. A few nice hits. Some south. Some north. But a good look overall. Best threat is day 10-11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Day 10 is March. It's going to have to come at night to really accumulate with sun angle and marginal temps. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, Subtropics said: Day 10 is March. It's going to have to come at night to really accumulate with sun angle and marginal temps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Major improvement on eps. Went from default 3 to semi default 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Day 10 is March. It's going to have to come at night to really accumulate with sun angle and marginal temps. Did we not have an event late into March of last year where several areas got 6-12"+ of snow? While snow late into the season has no staying power after snow stops, it sure as hell can accumulate during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, Cobalt said: Did we not have an event late into March of last year where several areas got 6-12"+ of snow? While snow late into the season has no staying power after snow stops, it sure as hell can accumulate during the day. The northern zones maybe? DCA did not receive close to that amount. It's more or less impossible for us to build lasting snowpack even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 lmao DCA can't get snow in the middle of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Major improvement on eps. Went from default 3 to semi default 4 I feel like we just had this conversation 2 weeks ago when the eps showed 3-4” and now 2 days after you got a warning criteria snow from that your singing the same song? Time to get updates material. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Day 10 is March. It's going to have to come at night to really accumulate with sun angle and marginal temps. It’s not even funny anymore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not even funny anymore You live in Manchester. Completely different Climo from most of the subforum. Yes you can get snow up there. My lawn is already brown as dirt after 4'' the other day. In fact 10'' cooked off in about 2 days back in late January... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 there's still snow on the ground in bethesda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: You live in Manchester. Completely different Climo from most of the subforum. Yes you can get snow up there. My lawn is already brown as dirt after 4'' the other day. In fact 10'' cooked off in about 2 days back in late January... It was never that way before.. snow used to come and stick around for weeks. These days with the ice caps melting and all.. it doesnt have chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 i remember when i was a kid it snowed every day even in the summer 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Subtropics said: You live in Manchester. Completely different Climo from most of the subforum. Yes you can get snow up there. My lawn is already brown as dirt after 4'' the other day. In fact 10'' cooked off in about 2 days back in late January... Have you lived here the past few years? We've had late March snowstorms with cold powder. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Have you lived here the past few years? We've had late March snowstorms with cold powder. I'm farther south than you. I'm in the right subforum though. I remember a late march storm that melted in like a day where I'm at. To be clear to y'all I'm not suggesting it can't snow I'm saying it can't stay around once it stops falling and roads will be fine during peak solar mid day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not even funny anymore Unfortunately he's not trolling he really believes the stuff he's spewing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 yes snow melts amazing contribution i'm obviously responding to troll posts i'll stop 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, Subtropics said: The northern zones maybe? DCA did not receive close to that amount. It's more or less impossible for us to build lasting snowpack even now. All you ever do it pop on to drop some negativity. And DCA did get accumulating snow during the day on March 20th last year!!! And some places on the coastal plane east of the bay got 8”!!! DC has had accumulating snow in March in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. But you stick to this stupid argument. And many in here have way better climo than DCA. And who said anything about building snowpack. And when the hell do we ever do that even in January? Where do you think we live? Like once a decade do we build snowpack even in mid winter. You used to put more effort into your trolling. This is just lazy stupid nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Subtropics said: I'm farther south than you. I'm in the right subforum though. I remember a late march storm that melted in like a day where I'm at. To be clear to y'all I'm not suggesting it can't snow I'm saying it can't stay around once it stops falling and roads will be fine during peak solar mid day. I don't think that's the argument. Nobody is arguing it will stick around - the argument is whether it can stick on surfaces like pavement during the middle of the day - which it certainly can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 22 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Day 10 is March. It's going to have to come at night to really accumulate with sun angle and marginal temps. That foot plus of snow I had last march 21st and 22nd that almost all fell during the daylight hours says you couldn't be more wrong but I degress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Unfortunately he's not trolling he really believes the stuff he's spewing. You can’t fix stupid 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Getting good in here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You can’t fix stupid You always take the jabs. Look I hope it snows. This winter has been a letdown it would be nice to go out with a bang. We are all on the same team for 1 more shot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: You always take the jabs. Look I hope it snows. This winter has been a letdown it would be nice to go out with a bang. We are all on the same team for 1 more shot.. I’m sorry. I don’t know you personally. But when you continue to argue that something can’t happen when it actually has happened numerous times including in the very near past it’s too easy. That is a dumb argument. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Subtropics said: You always take the jabs. Look I hope it snows. This winter has been a letdown it would be nice to go out with a bang. We are all on the same team for 1 more shot.. Well we are almost at climo.. but.. I agree.. it has been a let down with all the fall predictions of everyone bathing in snow up to their eyeballs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Ok interesting note...since 1960 is a top analog to the coming pattern. That was probably the ultimate March for cold and snow in the 95 corridor. But going into that March we had less snow than we do this year. BWI was only at 12.5” and DCA 7.2”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m sorry. I don’t know you personally. But when you continue to argue that something can’t happen when it actually has happened numerous times including in the very near past it’s too easy. That is a dumb argument. Fair enough. You have the stats, I don't. I'll concede that. Maybe I'm a micro climate, but I've witnessed stickage issues mid day even with February sun. Naturally I'm skeptical due to my personal experience on the blacktops 'round here IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 26 minutes ago, Subtropics said: I'm farther south than you. I'm in the right subforum though. I remember a late march storm that melted in like a day where I'm at. To be clear to y'all I'm not suggesting it can't snow I'm saying it can't stay around once it stops falling and roads will be fine during peak solar mid day. It can still lay even on roads. 4/9/16 and 3/21/18 both had roads completely cave where I live- and this was in the middle of the day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Who gives a shit about snowpack sticking around in March? If it snows 30 inches and is gone two days later - seems fine to me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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