LeesburgWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 My dad said there were entire cars buried in that storm in drifts down in Norfolk. Still the most talked about storm in Hampton roads. Ji would be kicking pups again if that happened next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: My dad said there were entire cars buried in that storm in drifts down in Norfolk. Still the most talked about storm in Hampton roads. Ji would be kicking pups again if that happened next week Purcelville and Ashburn recorded 8 and 9" so Leesburg must have done ok. There seemed to be some kind of band on the NW fringe that got NW VA pretty good with lesser amounts north and south before the real jack area down by Richmond. But I am sure he would still be debbing if he ONLY got 8" while VA Beach got 2 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Saturday might need to be watched. Models with various solutions but active. Wonder when they will have a ah ha moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Do you guys believe the mid-week situation will impact the weekend potential? GFS has pretty consistently been showing a weak system pass by around Wednesday which allows warmer air to filter in and then the weekend storm cuts west. Euro seems to keep the entire week chilly which allows for a more wintry scenario later on. Am I misinterpreting what the models are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: I can't find a map of that storm snowfall wise Search and type in " snowstorm of the century march 1980 ". There are articles and NWS did a detailed synoptic overview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, HighStakes said: Search and type in " snowstorm of the century march 1980 ". There are articles and NWS did a detailed synoptic overview. I meant more a map showing the LWX snowfall. I have read and seen the maps from MHX and AKQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Search and type in " snowstorm of the century march 1980 ". There are articles and NWS did a detailed synoptic overview. https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Anyone have Ukmet surface for hour 120 - 144. It looks better organized then Gfs for something possible mid week . Verbatim a 1004 low se of us ...probably light stuff if anything but I'm bored and stranded on the side of the road in Hunt valley lol. As in temps and precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Anyone have Ukmet surface for hour 120 - 144. It looks better organized then Gfs for something possible mid week . Verbatim a 1004 low se of us ...probably light stuff if anything but I'm bored and stranded on the side of the road in Hunt valley lol. it mostly miller b's around us. not much precip in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Gfs and fv3 both suppressed with the two waves during our best window day 9-13. I don’t mind that right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I'll just fill in for Ji here. 12z GFS is a DISASTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Ggem looks good but when doesn’t it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'll just fill in for Ji here. 12z GFS is a DISASTER. I actually thought it was a good run for what I wanted to see... the general setup is still there but it suppresses both waves day 10 and 12. That is kind of what I want the GFS to do at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I actually thought it was a good run for what I wanted to see... the general setup is still there but it suppresses both waves day 10 and 12. That is kind of what I want the GFS to do at that range. It was fine lol. But Ji would be like- cutters and sliders and it didn't give us a flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It was fine lol. But Ji would be like- cutters and sliders and it didn't give us a flake! yea I get it lol... Just to point out how good a run it actually was... the day 8 500 mb analogs for the 12z GFS just came out #1 is centered 2 days before the March 1960 HECS #3 is centered 3 days before the March 1962 HECS #4 is centered 3 days before the March 1958 HECS that's not a bad signal 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea I get it lol... Just to point out how good a run it actually was... the day 8 500 mb analogs for the 12z GFS just came out #1 is centered 2 days before the March 1960 HECS #3 is centered 3 days before the March 1962 HECS #4 is centered 3 days before the March 1958 HECS that's not a bad signal Yeah but it didn't snow 2-3 days before those storms so why is that good? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 50 minutes ago, ATreglown said: https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Mar011980EventReview Some NC numbers from '80 storm. I was there. Big snows for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Yeah but it didn't snow 2-3 days before those storms so why is that good? Are you being serious? Sometimes I can't tell The best threat period I am watching is around day 10-12. That would be 2-3 days AFTER day 8 and the day 8 analogs say that look day 8 lead to several big snowstorms a few days later. It doesn't mean anything is a lock, not every look like that has to lead to something... but the analogs indicate that if the GFS is right about that day 8 pattern there is a legit threat for a storm from that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Like the look on the 12z GEFS. Something to watch...the EPO blocking has been shifting east and bleeding over into the western NAO domain lately...if that trend continues it would be good for our snow chances. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 31 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Some NC numbers from '80 storm. I was there. Big snows for sure. Get that crap outta here. Snow in the south in March is an abomination. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Mentioned previousy about the typhoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Not gonna lie, that D8 storm does hurt a bit. Showing up on the Euro, but rain from a coastal. Good news is, we still have hope (and time) for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Not gonna lie, that D8 storm does hurt a bit. Showing up on the Euro, but rain from a coastal. Good news is, we still have hope (and time) for some changes. Is it close to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not gonna lie, that D8 storm does hurt a bit. Showing up on the Euro, but rain from a coastal. Good news is, we still have hope (and time) for some changes. A lot will change. Some interesting model outcomes will be arriving as we head into the last week of Feb. and this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 Well...good news is that incoming is still there on D10 Euro. Bad news is, it's stuck on incoming at D10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Get that crap outta here. Snow in the south in March is an abomination. Yeah that map hurts...lol Analog begone! Good analogs only from now on (I mean sure 4 inches would put a lot of us at or above 20", but two misses to the south to bookend the beginning and end of the season would still be torturous, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Not gonna lie, that D8 storm does hurt a bit. Showing up on the Euro, but rain from a coastal. Good news is, we still have hope (and time) for some changes. Yep when people mentioned all the hits on the ensembles in that time period...nobody mentioned rain storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I can be slow sometimes lol it happens to the best of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 To balance things out some, bluewave posted this a few hours ago, and it is a thought provoking observation. Seems this has indeed been an issue all winter long. The absence of any +PNA . The screaming and powerful Pac jet tears down any attempt at it. I almost wonder if maybe it takes away the favorable window for early March. To flow really needs to slow. Thinking about what HM posted too, I wonder if although the MJO is in phase 1 and then proceeds to phase 2 if we do not get a look that is typical with that type of composite. Some fear the +PNA I myslef not sure what to think this winter. Posted from bluewave starting here : <<<<<< Euro and GFS correcting stronger with the PAC Jet over the Western US last few days. That’s why both models lost the the snow they were showing near the beginning of March. We need that fire hose jet to relax if we want one last shot at snow. Notice how the fast flow weakened the PNA ridge models were showing a few days ago. New run Old run >>>>>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 My nonexpert look at 12zEPS based on the mean of low locations shows coastal possibilities for the 2nd and the 5th. 5th actually looks better to me. I am going to get some sleep this weekend! Again at least we have a seat in the ball park for the 2nd-5th period..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now