psuhoffman Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes--I kinda jumbled two things together here: One "pattern" I mentioned was the wet Fall numbers depicted in JB2's chart I posted. The other was my own observation of the totals of the winters preceded by these years... Now interestingly, there is some overlap with the top 3 wettest years here and the top 3 wettest Falls in the other chart. And now this winter makes it the 4th time such an overlap occured. So maybe statistically it doesn't mean much...but I was certainly a bit concerned about the trend repeating itself this winter...and lo and behold, it did, lol Can't we concludr, then...that so far in recorded history, years that were wet like these 5 (6 including this year) have never resulted in above average snow? (and weren't 2003-04 and 1979-80 also weak niños?) Doesn't make it impossible, but...if it ain't happened yet, hard for me to expect a different result the next time we have an extremely wet year, lol 2003/4 wasn’t a nino. 2004/5 was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: April fools snowstorm per Euro ...a Winchester to Hagerstown warning snow event lol. Fits this year's seasonal pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 I wonder if it will happen. Look at the +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 This is a reminder of the great April 2-5 1987 snowstorm. 1987 and 1997, both as organized developing El Nino Spring's had big snowstorms in the first few days of April.. 2015 did not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 This is the 18z GFS ensembles, which is a lot different from the Euro. It has a massive -EPO, which I would expect to trend toward more +PNA/EC trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 And there's our April Blizzard now starting to show up. And only 17/18 days away. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 4 hours ago, showmethesnow said: And there's our April Blizzard now starting to show up. And only 17/18 days away. Lol. It's going to be fun tracking snow storms on the fv3 leading into the July 4th holiday. It's gonna be tough to pack when we head down to Ocean City. Hmm. Should I pack swimming trunks or my snow boots lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: hould I pack swimming trunks or my snow boots lol. Better yet, snow boots or surf board ? Might take until 2020 for the FV3 to go operational as the flagship model. What a waste of time that model - should develop a tool that blocks models not just posters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 6 hours ago, showmethesnow said: And there's our April Blizzard now starting to show up. And only 17/18 days away. cutter im kidding, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 i approve: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019032400&fh=114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 22 minutes ago, 87storms said: i approve: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2019032400&fh=114 Certainly no indications of sudden summer, which is nice, maybe eventually a nice period of real spring weather for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 We could use -NAO though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 Looking forward to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 Here we go again Hot Spring forecasted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong. did we have a winter is the question. we had a bunch of storms and continuation of precip producers with the occasional well timed progressive cold airmass. i'm just glad i got that mid jan storm out of it. this winter could have been a real epic bust if it wasn't for that one. aside from the '16 blizzard, we haven't had a really true start to finish winter in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 6 hours ago, frd said: Certainly no indications of sudden summer, which is nice, maybe eventually a nice period of real spring weather for once. the 2nd half of this week looks outstanding for prototype spring weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong. Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing. In this day and age, and the way things are going globally, I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong. Hope everyone has a nice spring/summer. It’s been fun as always. See you in October unless we get a tropical threat. We’ll get the goods next season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like this thread is finally dying. Winter has been over in my world for about a month now. I wasn't wrong. Yep, today was perfect...hope your fire pit is coming along well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, frd said: Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing. In this day and age, and the way things are going globally, I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo. Yup go with climo and reduce by 33%. Hard to beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Yep, today was perfect...hope your fire pit is coming along well Thank you! I worked on it most of the day. It was beautiful out there. Its coming along nicely. When its all done I will post a pic or 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 did we have a winter is the question. we had a bunch of storms and continuation of precip producers with the occasional well timed progressive cold airmass. i'm just glad i got that mid jan storm out of it. this winter could have been a real epic bust if it wasn't for that one. aside from the '16 blizzard, we haven't had a really true start to finish winter in several years.I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!!Sent from my SM-G930V using TapatalkCorrection on my part..equalled 2015 think dulles snowfall was higher that year.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 I see people are over reacting again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs now has a April fools snowstorm. Euro had it yesterday . There's a theme here I think And its a front end thump.. In April Edit: actually FV3 has it to ...not a surprise This is definitely the one!!!!!!! Woooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 For the most part I was impressed with how well the models did in the 2.5 - 6 day time frame. The models were mostly useless in the 8-14 day time frame; however, this is a time frame when models only provide useful information during certain windows when teleconnections indicate that a longer range forecast should have skill (certain combinations of the QBO MJO ENSO post-stratospheric warming). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 11 hours ago, weatherjedi said: I dont really see how one could rationally ask that question if your location is the immediate dc area. In rockville we recieved over 24 inches for the season..the jan storm was great but several more were solid low to moderate storms not to mention another decent 5 incher in feb! I your excpectation is wall to wall cold with endless snow maybe just a few years 2003/4,2009/10,2013/14 come to mind. In fact dca and dulles scored better than 2015 and WAY better than the last two! I do understand the frustration of people like CAPE ..but it was a very lucky winter for us, because you know 201/2012 is up next!! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk it was fringe...real fringe. we hit our snow totals because our record breaking precip year bled into the winter. the nov to march precip totals at dc are insane...over 20" i think. imagine if we had more sustained cold. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcaprecip.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 it was fringe...real fringe. we hit our snow totals because our record breaking precip year bled into the winter. the nov to march precip totals at dc are insane...over 20" i think. imagine if we had more sustained cold. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcaprecip.pdfYes..that is correct. The insane precip totals did help immensely, but when it come to snow i think well take it any way we can get! I did enjoy jan this year and the early november cold,imo best winter since 2015!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, weatherjedi said: Yes..that is correct. The insane precip totals did help immensely, but when it come to snow i think well take it any way we can get! I did enjoy jan this year and the early november cold,imo best winter since 2015! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk overall, yes, we had a winter, but i think there's a reason it got mostly C grades across the board. lots of rain, no sustained cold, and only one sizable event. the jan 12/13 storm was great and the first part of feb 20, but i gotta factor into the equation that a lot of the snow didn't stick around due to generally mild temps and/or just getting washed out soon after. honestly, i actually prefer mild winters with periodic snow...it was the rain that i thought was excessive. december was a no show as well. however, i certainly grade this higher than the previous 2 winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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