dallen7908 Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The real threat still looks good Pretty sure you're not serious but hope you're right; obviously, April 1st is very close to the time of year when only the day-10 model climate is cold enough for accumulating snow. It'll be memorable for sure. Keep the faith ocean temperatures are near their annual minimum. The EPS also has weak support for this "event" - at least north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 change the thread name to crack room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Watch out for April ice storms!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 I'm not ruling anything out for next week. Today I've received several inches of rain when just 3 days ago Euro didn't even have todays storm. It's an absolute deluge out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 On 3/20/2019 at 8:37 PM, JakkelWx said: What DT actually meant when he said it was gonna be dry for 10 days is that he wasn't gonna drink for 10 days. Well you see how that went. Nice.! I read that post too.. and I was a little confused when he said it was gonna be dry for like 15 days or something.. We are in a flood warning right now. I kinda feel sorry for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, PDIII said: Nice.! I read that post too.. and I was a little confused when he said it was gonna be dry for like 15 days or something.. We are in a flood warning right now. I kinda feel sorry for him. I do also BUT making absolute statements especially with weather is a formula for disaster. Sometimes we dig our own graves, jump in, then regret it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I do also BUT making absolute statements especially with weather is a formula for disaster. Sometimes we dig our own graves, jump in, then regret it. He is kinda like JB2's doppelganger. Both are weenies gone awry.. once a promising career in broadcast meteorology.. now just trying to make it big on facebook.. but thats where there's path diverge.. Berk was a great caster butt I think his weenie stuff got in the way. But now he does school assemblies and he is active in the community. He came to my kids school.. I think he is genuinely happy to be a facebook met. DT just yells at people that visit his page. I think I got banned from DT I think the first day I commented on one of his posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Tonights 00z GFS, CMC, and FV3 all want little to nothing to do with early next week at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 This unfulfilling winter needs to end. We keep falling short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: This unfulfilling winter needs to end. We keep falling short Didn't winter end 2 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 There’s not many hits in the 00z euro members, though there’s still a small handful. Not looking great but given what happened with this week’s storm I think it’s fair to not totally give up yet. FWIW, the 12km NAM sees a cold front as well now that we’re in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Mr Reaper needs to come in and just pull the plug. I hate seeing people suffer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 It’s not over yet. Let’s see what today brings. Just some flakes is all I would like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Look at this +NAO in the extended. It's actually rare for NAO to carry over from March to April and through the Spring, it usually switches phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 onto spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: onto spring... when 75 and sunny reappears... then that is Spring. Next 10 days isn't really spring with lows 25-35 and highs in the 50s with a few low 60s mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, yoda said: when 75 and sunny reappears... then that is Spring. Next 10 days isn't really spring with lows 25-35 and highs in the 50s with a few low 60s mixed in i'm perfectly ok considering 50s/60s spring. i guess the early next week situation could end with some flakes, but it's never a good setup dealing with cold air timing while precip is departing...especially in march. pretty mild leading in, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 18 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Watch out for April ice storms!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: i hope they never touch that model. And to think...it was going to be the OP model but Capital weather gang ruined it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: See it’s fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Welp, with over 18" Sept-Nov, this pattern turned out to hold true...I was always a bit concerned about how much rain we got last year; my concern was that the top 5 wettest years to that point were all followed by below average (20.1") of snow at BWI! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 It’s a testament to everyone’s dedication that this thread somehow has 80 pages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Welp, with over 18" Sept-Nov, this pattern turned out to hold true...I was always a bit concerned about how much rain we got last year; my concern was that the top 5 wettest years to that point were all followed by below average (20.1") of snow at BWI! When you use a dependent variable that only happens about 30% of the time (above avg snowfall) along with an independent variable with a sample size of 5...you have absolutely no statistical significance. Chances are high you got that result from random chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: It’s a testament to everyone’s dedication that this thread somehow has 80 pages. Hopefully with the fv3 by the time we’re done tracking this year it will already be picking up on next years threats!!! Maybe we can have a debate in the summer of exactly which season the fv3 day 10 snow belongs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When you use a dependent variable that only happens about 30% of the time (above avg snowfall) along with an independent variable with a sample size of 5...you have absolutely no statistical significance. Chances are high you got that result from random chance. I take it you are well-versed in statistics (do you teach that as well? Either way, your annoyance last time makes more sense, lol). Guess I have a less-than-rational logic when a particular trend (like the top 5 wet years having sub 20" winters) has not been broken. Always feels safer to bet on it repeating! But that's feeling and not statistics, I suppose...lol (you see such logic used on sports broadcasts all the time! "90% of the time a team does this, this happens") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I take it you are well-versed in statistics (do you teach that as well? Either way, your annoyance last time makes more sense, lol). Guess I have a less-than-rational logic when a particular trend (like the top 5 wet years having sub 20" winters) has not been broken. Always feels safer to bet on it repeating! But that's feeling and not statistics, I suppose...lol (you see such logic used on sports broadcasts all the time! "90% of the time a team does this, this happens") But are those the top 5 wettest falls? Or just the top 5 wettest falls in that subset of years with wet summers? And some of those wet years just outside the top 5 were snowy. And there is a decent chance that any random 5 years would all be below 20” snowfall. Correlation does not equal causality. So I cannot say that there isn’t causality. But that small correlation in no way proves it does. It does show a wet fall isn’t a sign of a snowy winter though. One of my degrees is sociology and I used statistics a lot for that. I also had to get certified in economics and needed statistics for that. Plus I took statistics for meteorology before switching majors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: t does show a wet fall isn’t a sign of a snowy winter though. We both know there are many that get very worried when the fall is dry. But, alas that is not a bad thing, just like so many misconceptions out there from sunlight in March and snow accumulating , to SSWE and blizzards are coming, to early season snowfalls are a curse to winter snowfall, ( hold on I have to think about that one a little more ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Here's a graph I did of ENSO subsurface 1980-present. Notice 92-93/93-94 and 03-04 were higher than 15-16. It also gives credence to my theory that the 1997 El Nino was produced, because look at the swing after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 13 hours ago, psuhoffman said: But are those the top 5 wettest falls? Or just the top 5 wettest falls in that subset of years with wet summers? And some of those wet years just outside the top 5 were snowy. And there is a decent chance that any random 5 years would all be below 20” snowfall. Correlation does not equal causality. So I cannot say that there isn’t causality. But that small correlation in no way proves it does. It does show a wet fall isn’t a sign of a snowy winter though. One of my degrees is sociology and I used statistics a lot for that. I also had to get certified in economics and needed statistics for that. Plus I took statistics for meteorology before switching majors. Yes--I kinda jumbled two things together here: One "pattern" I mentioned was the wet Fall numbers depicted in JB2's chart I posted. The other was my own observation of the totals of the winters preceded by these years... Now interestingly, there is some overlap with the top 3 wettest years here and the top 3 wettest Falls in the other chart. And now this winter makes it the 4th time such an overlap occured. So maybe statistically it doesn't mean much...but I was certainly a bit concerned about the trend repeating itself this winter...and lo and behold, it did, lol Can't we concludr, then...that so far in recorded history, years that were wet like these 5 (6 including this year) have never resulted in above average snow? (and weren't 2003-04 and 1979-80 also weak niños?) Doesn't make it impossible, but...if it ain't happened yet, hard for me to expect a different result the next time we have an extremely wet year, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 How did IAD get so much snow in April 1990? Maybe we can do that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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