psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: euro eps has me in blue Lol I almost said “look we’re back in blue” earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Wow -EPO sure did come out of nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: After next week's frontal passage, FV3 develops a storm on the tail end. Have to figure out a way to bring it up the coast instead of out to sea. This winter been the most anti-up the coast winter I've ever seen! Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Time for another March bomb? I'm in. Would be a perfect ending to this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Eps basically unchanged...still looking solid Day 7 Interesting. EPS actually improved with the overall look. Seems the GFS just wants to blow a cold front thru. Fv3 is a weaker progressive lp flying by underneath half of the region as is the CMC now. Icon is all over the place. Will give the euro and EPS points for consistency anyway tho they could be consistently incorrect as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: This winter been the most anti-up the coast winter I've ever seen! Lol just cutters and surpressed. or once in a while a hugger and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Interesting. EPS actually improved with the overall look. Seems the GFS just wants to blow a cold front thru. Fv3 is a weaker progressive lp flying by underneath half of the region as is the CMC now. Icon is all over the place. Will give the euro and EPS points for consistency anyway tho they could be consistently incorrect as well. Consistency does not = correct outcome Two years ago the GFS for 22 runs in a row had a SECS for us, the Euro never had such a forecast. Guess what, the GFS was wrong, duh...... never got a flake. Problem this year is the Euro blows too and its brother the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ... they could be consistently incorrect as well. 13 minutes ago, frd said: Consistency does not = correct outcome Yep. Consistently incorrect was a recurring theme from this past winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 39 minutes ago, frd said: Consistency does not = correct outcome Two years ago the GFS for 22 runs in a row had a SECS for us, the Euro never had such a forecast. Guess what, the GFS was wrong, duh...... never got a flake. Problem this year is the Euro blows too and its brother the weeklies. 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep. Consistently incorrect was a recurring theme from this past winter. The euro was ok inside day 6/7 when it counts. I think we’re being a bit harsh grading day 10-15 fails with much weight. We know their skill is barely above climo at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 I think we need to turn our attention to April. This comes from a storm April 2-3 LOL I mean were due for an April HECS right? Kidding aside EPS continues to scatter hits across our area next week. 6Z GEFS, on the other hand, completely lost the threat. Keys on the northern stream feature and cuts a lot to the lakes and then simply a dry frontal passage. Model war right now. Before people assume the euro wins this, the GFS actually has won a couple of these disputes lately...or at least the final compromise solution was closer to the GFS than the Euro... and the GFS agreed with the euro yesterday and now has diverged. Not saying I favor the GFS att...but those 2 factors make this a more difficult choice than just saying...Euro is King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we need to turn our attention to April. This comes from a storm April 2-3 LOL I mean were due for an April HECS right? Kidding aside EPS continues to scatter hits across our area next week. 6Z GEFS, on the other hand, completely lost the threat. Keys on the northern stream feature and cuts a lot to the lakes and then simply a dry frontal passage. Model war right now. Before people assume the euro wins this, the GFS actually has won a couple of these disputes lately...or at least the final compromise solution was closer to the GFS than the Euro... and the GFS agreed with the euro yesterday and now has diverged. Not saying I favor the GFS att...but those 2 factors make this a more difficult choice than just saying...Euro is King. you win 9 out of 10 times by taking the least snowiest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: you win 9 out of 10 times by taking the least snowiest model That is true lately, but then there are years like 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015... when guidance was less snowy from range then reality. It cuts both ways...but it does seem more often than not when we are in our typical sucky climo years go with the least snowy model is the wining formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Regarding the EPS/GEFS diferences around our day 6-7 system, the euro is swinging the NS trough through ahead of the southern feature and leaving way more energy behind. That creates a nice setup here... The NS comes in ahead and supplies the cold and creates confluence to our north... while there is enough energy coming in behind to track a system under us. But the GFS/GEFS/FV3 keys on the northern stream...leaves almost nothing behind and so it drives a low to our north and then simply drags a cold front through behind. On the one hand the euro MIGHT be playing into its bias of leaving energy behind here. BUT... most of the secondary guidance agrees more with the euro progression. GEPS is probably the most supportive... while the GEFS at the same time has nothing The NAVGEM and UKMET are also in the euro camp with having separation between the two features and leaving enough behind to develop a storm, the ICON is kind of in between the two. Keep in mind that even if we get the euro progression that does not mean we get a snowstorm. The storm could still end up too warm, it is late March. It could also end up suppressed. So even getting the euro look isn't any guarantee of anything. But we have to figure out the basic synoptic progression before we can even begin to worry about details like that. ATT I would favor the euro progression...slightly, over the GFS. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It cuts both ways...but it does seem more often than not when we are in our typical sucky climo years go with the least snowy model is the wining formula. Thats fascinating , wonder whether science supports this at all or whether it is simple persistence but then is that based on some repeating formula that gives us the least snowiest outcome on most long range forecasts. So persistence is science based, certainly not random noise or luck ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, frd said: Thats fascinating , wonder whether science supports this at all or whether it is simple persistence but then is that based on some repeating formula that gives us the least snowiest outcome on most long range forecasts. So persistence is science based, certainly not random noise or luck ?? I do think there is some "persistent" themes within patterns. The problem though is you never know when that is going to change...so it works until it doesn't. You are basically guaranteed to eventually bust bad simply using persistence. So it's definitely a good idea to factor in recent trends and learn from each scenario and apply it to the next...it has to be mixed in with synoptic analysis of each individual event also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 ICON stays in the euro camp. NOVA bullseye 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ICON stays in the euro camp. NOVA bullseye Yes...12z off to a good start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Yes, I know, ground too warm, sun angle, late March etc...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I do think there is some "persistent" themes within patterns. The problem though is you never know when that is going to change...so it works until it doesn't. You are basically guaranteed to eventually bust bad simply using persistence. So it's definitely a good idea to factor in recent trends and learn from each scenario and apply it to the next...it has to be mixed in with synoptic analysis of each individual event also. Ah, makes sense, maybe a novice example might be a combo way of forecasting such as : 70 % modeling and 30 % persistence and see where the chips fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 On Day 7, WPC has the whole area (minus RIC and coastal Delmarva) in the 10-30% chance for snow/sleet greater than 0.25", FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: ICON stays in the euro camp. NOVA bullseye I know the final outcome is more than just the NAO and AO but flow, and confluence, etc., but I almost can see this happening. Regardless though, will not be doing any gardening yet. Its cold out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes...12z off to a good start! Gfs says congrats sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Fv3 coming around, will be interesting to see its evolution. Interesting times ahead...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs says congrats sne Why are you here? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why are you here? Yup. Rain changing to a wet inch or two is definitely “congrats sne” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why are you here? Just to talk about the weather Free country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Just to talk about the weather Free country Yea but this isn't even your region. Not that your contributions to the NYC thread are all that wonderful but at least they belong there. Furthermore, you typically just parrot something someone else said OR make an observation EVERYONE can see. You don't add any analysis. AND often what you said is WRONG. The little bit of snow SNE gets is from the frontal wave. The actual system that we are watching as a threat goes SOUTH of us and is squashed...gives some snow to southern VA. So again why are you here? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2019 Author Share Posted March 20, 2019 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Just to talk about the weather Free country But this ain't a free board. Government rules don't apply here. 5 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But this ain't a free board. Government rules don't apply here. Explaining to people the difference between government restricting speech and a private weather board restricting speech should be easy lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Nothing is easy when it comes to explaining something to metfan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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