mappy Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: No one in N MD or along the M/D line liked the 00z CMC? Snow map was super lulz nope. dead people can't check models anymore. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, mappy said: nope. dead people can't check models anymore. Well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Lol FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Canadian looks very similar to the GFS for the next week deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 GEFS mean looks good for next week. Place would be rocking if this were a month ago. Let's see if it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Canadian looks very similar to the GFS for the next week deal Not the 12z Cmc A lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 euro is horrible. No cold again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ji said: euro is horrible. No cold again In other news doesn’t that crazy ens member we lol at have to be right eventually? Add up the panels. It’s like 40-50” lol. I bet you wouldn’t complain about snow until at least October! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Control is a genuine all snow storm, FWIW. #13 and #4 are a little harder to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Control is a genuine all snow storm, FWIW. #13 and #4 are a little harder to judge. I count 10/20 that have snow over my house, not including control. Most maps look decent at worst for most of the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In other news doesn’t that crazy ens member we lol at have to be right eventually? Add up the panels. It’s like 40-50” lol. I bet you wouldn’t complain about snow until at least October! Good Lord. I'll take the over figuratively and literally. Have to agree that it would be crazy to see anything remotely close to this verify. With enough cold floating around, and some luck w/ timing, it is the season for big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eps still looking nice for the day 7/8 timeframe ..many nice hits . Keep hope alive!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps still looking nice for the day 7/8 timeframe ..many nice hits . Ehh. None of them are 40-50” like gefs p4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps still looking nice for the day 7/8 timeframe ..many nice hits in the mix But Ji said the Euro sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: But Ji said the Euro sucks lol Ji says lots of things. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Ok so Ji can be mad that none of the ops gave us a run to drool over. But both the gefs and eps bullseyes us. It’s 7 days away. It’s also Spring so we’re playing with house money. See you all for showme’s write up in the morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 The “E4 Storm”. Let’s make this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Over the last 3 EPS cycles (00 and 12 UT today and 12 UT yesterday) the percent chance of exceeding 3" has increased from 10-20% for the northern part of our forum; while the chance for the DC-area has remained at 10-12%. Of course 4 cycles ago (00 UT yesterday) the chances throughout the area were ~4% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Sterling pretty bullish for next week... On Monday, disturbances in both the northern and southern streams will start to approach the area. The northern stream trough will be quite dynamic, forcing the development of a large area of high pressure in it`s wake. This high will shift southward in conjunction with the upper trough, driving a powerful cold front southeastward toward our area. The combination of the southern stream disturbance approaching from the Tennessee Valley, coupled with the southward surging cold front could produce precipitation across the area by Monday afternoon. However, the positioning of the front and the resultant chances for precipitation are still rather uncertain six days out. The airmass behind the cold front looks very cold for late March, and wintry precipitation may be possible behind the front, even at lower elevations. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 wintry precip 'may be possible behind the front'. LOL. Lots of other things may be possible, too. Good luck with that one as we near April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: wintry precip 'may be possible behind the front'. LOL. Lots of other things may be possible, too. Good luck with that one as we near April! In fairness there is a decent chance of “some frozen” somewhere in the region and that’s all they said. Odds of it being significant are really low and that’s what most are chasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: In fairness there is a decent chance of “some frozen” somewhere in the region and that’s all they said. Odds of it being significant are really low and that’s what most are chasing. Maybe a 1997 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: In fairness there is a decent chance of “some frozen” somewhere in the region and that’s all they said. Odds of it being significant are really low and that’s what most are chasing. They totally lost me at 'even at the lower elevations'. jeez. Maybe go with climo by default in the last days of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Maybe a 1997 redux. The GFS brothers are not as enthusiastic this happy hour. Perhaps the drink specials weren’t to their liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: They totally lost me at 'even at the lower elevations'. jeez. Maybe go with climo by default in the last days of March. Wait...you didn’t believe the 12z GFS going from 70 to the upper 20’s in 12 hours? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: They totally lost me at 'even at the lower elevations'. jeez. Maybe go with climo by default in the last days of March. It’s pretty rare to get a significant post March 25 snowstorm on the coastal plain. Not impossible but it’s rare. But it’s less rare to just see some flakes or a slushy car topper. They didn’t say anything significant. And the airmass next week (right now) does look pretty anomalously cold. I didn’t have an issue with it. If there is a healthy enough wave as the front presses I bet there are some flakes east of the fall line somewhere. The threat of a bigger storm would be if something organizes and presses back north and that likely would favor climo locations if it even happens at all. One oddity I’ve noted...while there have been way more small and moderate snows (1-3 & 3-5”) in April here than in the coastal plain there have actually been more BIG 8”+ snows along the coast (especially NJ which is due east of me). Granted those are super rare so it’s a tiny sample size and a lot of them were a long time ago but I have a theory that it takes a pretty wound up storm to get heavy snow that late and in April they have tended to be tightly would up coastal storms that blasted the coastal plain. Again they are super rare but at least statistically the coastal plain has had more 8”+ snows in April than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 I know we’ve moved on but what went wrong this week was instead of that system coming across phasing into the coastal a NS system is diving into the lakes and pulling both southern features into it. The southern feature is phasing into the NS not the other way around. Plus that strong NS feature to our NW turns the flow southerly and wrecks the thermal profile ahead of the southern system coming up. The random runs that teased us a while ago had the NS diving in and phasing into the stj system to our south. That was always a long shot. We may have trended back to a strong storm but in a different way that is hostile to frozen chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Still a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 euro eps has me in blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 After next week's frontal passage, FV3 develops a storm on the tail end. Have to figure out a way to bring it up the coast instead of out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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