showmethesnow Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Overnight Euro saw a significant flip at 500's as to where it is looking much more like the GFS (fv3) then the others (GFS, CMC. ICON). At this point though both the FV3 and the Euro are too slow with the intensification of the low (500's are lagging somewhat) and offer the best chances to our north. The looks being thrown up (Euro, FV3) are close though. Just a little deeper drop by the trough and a little shifting of the axis and/or placement would mean a world of difference to getting a bombing low at our latitude that could overcome the torching lower levels. I still place the odds as low with our chances but I think that they are much better then some may want to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6z nam has a coastal south of hatteras at the end of its run. Had nothing resembling this last run. Also, euro has the storm on the 26-27 with rain changing to snow for our region. Gfs was close as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Overnight Euro saw a significant flip at 500's as to where it is looking much more like the GFS (fv3) then the others (GFS, CMC. ICON). At this point though both the FV3 and the Euro are too slow with the intensification of the low (500's are lagging somewhat) and offer the best chances to our north. The looks being thrown up (Euro, FV3) are close though. Just a little deeper drop by the trough and a little shifting of the axis and/or placement would mean a world of difference to getting a bombing low at our latitude that could overcome the torching lower levels. I still place the odds as low with our chances but I think that they are much better then some may want to believe. So the EURO caved to the FV3? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Now we’re talking! Bring. On. The. Warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6 hours ago, Wonderdog said: So the EURO caved to the FV3? Interesting. fv3 didn't show and inland track until 00z. And the fv3 backed off on the 2' of snow it had in that stale 40f airmass. Fv3 did okay here, but the +snowfall bias remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 59 minutes ago, Amped said: fv3 didn't show and inland track until 00z. And the fv3 backed off on the 2' of snow it had in that stale 40f airmass. Fv3 did okay here, but the +snowfall bias remains. I was referring to the fact that it's had a storm for what, a week? Track and snow are incidentals. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: I was referring to the fact that it's had a storm for what, a week? Track and snow are incidentals. lol Yeah I would say the fv3 beat the euro here with the general idea. Euro was nowhere close the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Amped said: Yeah I would say the fv3 beat the euro here with the general idea. Euro was nowhere close the last few days. Fv3 nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 euro destroys us day 9-10. Would be fitting to have a Nov 15 snowstorm and march 27 slowest moving storm of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Euro’s got a sub 980 off the NE coast on Friday, and seems to be showing the 9-10 day snow event again for us. That’s a much more positive outlook for snow than this time yesterday, at the very least! Even the Friday storm, although very unlikely it amounts to any snow for most of us, has my attention given all the shifting in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 We have a good track now on Euro for Thursday and need it to trend colder... Lofty goal for the second half of March but wortg keeping an eye on. Pretty remarkable fv3 performance though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol Fringed! We toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 There will probably be some additional track/intensity changes but I wouldn't aim to high snow wise with the late week system. I would like to see development sooner/further south which is possible but not likely currently. It would be nice to at least get some kind of impacts from a bombing out coastal regardless of precipitation type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Lol picking up scraps in CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps member E12 has a 36 - 48 hour HECS day 8/9. Definitely our best shot period for an anomalous late season hit . Under 10 days -- it's a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps member E12 has a 36 - 48 hour HECS day 8/9. Definitely our best shot period for an anomalous late season hit . We only get ~20”. The 40” area is down by DC. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We only get ~20”. The 40” area is down by DC. Next. EPS supports a closed ULL going near or under us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 Well, I got curious and for some reason checked the NAM. Go look at it and compare H5 from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 lol NAM. If only we had some real cold air around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 NAM is what we wanted...but temps don't cooperate. It's a NAMin...of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 4 of us in here, we are gonna watch the Namin of rain together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Going from the least amped model to the most amped in one run. There's only 1 model that would do such a thing. I don't need to name it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 It’s wrong, but it went down like that, it would be epic heartache. Just agonizing. And fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 I don't care what happens I just want something exciting other than partly sunny and 55. Give me storm after storm until we get to April then it can warm up and dry out. Then we can look for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 42 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol NAM. If only we had some real cold air around Since the setup wasn’t that good most failed to notice the antecedent temperature profile was degrading...to the point that any frozen is a real low probability even if we get this to trend towards a more amped west track. Its also super low probability but if the guidance is even close with a pressing anomalous cold airmass as a cutoff low system tracks under us day 8-10 that is a better setup. Still unlikely but less unlikely I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since the setup wasn’t that good most failed to notice the antecedent temperature profile was degrading...to the point that any frozen is a real low probability even if we get this to trend towards a more amped west track. Its also super low probability but if the guidance is even close with a pressing anomalous cold airmass as a cutoff low system tracks under us day 8-10 that is a better setup. Still unlikely but less unlikely I guess. I know. It would still be interesting as is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 47 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It’s wrong, but it went down like that, it would be epic heartache. Just agonizing. And fitting. Christ thats the last thing I need right now. Thankfully its the NAM at range. Give me a nice dry week, with a storm a couple hundred miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Lol If this happens, my wife may have some trouble getting home from her trip to Chicago LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Lol You've gotta he kidding me, hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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