stormtracker Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: last nights runs were terrible......how can the euro show rain D8/9 during our prime cold window we hate momentum....always go the opposite of what we want FV3 took away so much snow for me...its now become clipper amounts Too north for sliders...too south for Miller Bs...to east for clippers...to west for coastals winters cooked Where you see the glass half empty, I see it half full. Wouldn't take much for the Euro to show snow for D8/9. And D10 is definitely incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 someone let me know when the threat is within 3 days. chasing 7 day unicorns this winter has been for naughtNot true at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where you see the glass half empty, I see it half full. Wouldn't take much for the Euro to show snow for D8/9. And D10 is definitely incoming. i was just joking with the comment per Leesburg04 attempt at a joke 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, mappy said: someone let me know when the threat is within 3 days. chasing 7 day unicorns this winter has been for naught Unicorns are not what they are cracked up to be . I have seen some rather disgraceful and naughty unicorns over the years. For example this , 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i was just joking with the comment per Leesburg04 attempt at a joke We are all full of attempts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 35 minutes ago, mappy said: someone let me know when the threat is within 3 days. chasing 7 day unicorns this winter has been for naught Models did lock on to the last 2 winter weather producers on February 10-11 and 19-20 pretty early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: We are all full of attempts lol Some more so then others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: There continues to be a signal for a coastal, maybe a legit miller A, for around the 2nd. Lots of moving parts and timing involved as usual, especially with the TPV lobes rotating down. Had quite a few of the members that did show a Miller A but think there were more that favored a transfer from the west ala Miller B or a hybrid. But I didn't count so don't hold me to this. eta: My bad, thought you were talking the day 10/11 possible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, mappy said: someone let me know when the threat is within 3 days. chasing 7 day unicorns this winter has been for naught I agree with you regarding chasing the day 15 patterns all winter. The guidance has been awful past about day 11 with trying to go to the classic central pac nino look but failing to factor in the anomalous persistent interference around the Maritime continent. But when it comes to specific threats...the guidance has actually done pretty good from around day 12 in. The early December storm that crushed central and southern VA was seen past day 10. Shame it missed us but being off by like 100 miles from 12 days away is not a model fail imo. Those SWFE's along the front in Mid January that ended up mostly/all rain in our area but crushed north of us was seen from range too. They teased us with snow for a while at like day 12 but we know how they adjust 90% of the time without blocking and in the end they were right on time and pretty close to what guidance showed 12 days out only adjusted about 100 miles north. The TPV displacement in late January and the possability of anafront snows with it was modeled amazingly from long range. We even joked like a week out how there was no way guidance would see anafront snow from that range...but they did. Both of the snow/ice events we just had were modeled past day 10 and only went through what I would consider minor changes from 10 days out. The only big snow event in this region that was not seen well far out was the early January one. It has been a weird year for the NWP. Complete and total failure at picking out the general pattern trends at day 11-15 but pretty darn good at picking out the general idea for specific storm threats at day 10 (especially if we added in some common sense adjustments to how they would likely evolve)...which technically is usually harder and less accurate then general patterns. Go figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Where you see the glass half empty, I see it half full. Wouldn't take much for the Euro to show snow for D8/9. And D10 is definitely incoming. The pattern is LOADED...Ji is just being Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There continues to be a signal for a coastal, maybe a legit miller A, for around the 2nd. Lots of moving parts and timing involved as usual, especially with the TPV lobes rotating down. 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Had quite a few of the members that did show a Miller A but think there were more that favored a transfer from the west ala Miller B or a hybrid. But I didn't count so don't hold me to this. Regarding the day 8-9 threat there... it has a chance but the key is for the southern feature to become dominant. Right now the guidance is keying on the northern stream feature, and that is going to go to our north so if that is the dominant focus of the energy and upper level height falls then we are not going to win. If, however, the focus shifts to the southern stream disturbance...and that becomes the dominant focus of amplification...the northern stream can get pulled into that instead and suddenly the looks morphs quickly...that is kind of what happened back in January. Initially the guidance was keying on a northern stream system and it looked like rain and suddenly it became a snow threat...it looked like the whole setup changed so drastically but in reality it just started to key on the southern feature instead of the northern one. After that...the day 11 seems like a more classic threat with a stj system coming across to our south and needing it to turn up the coast. Plenty of cold in place. The euro has some hits in that range but I also count 16 members that miss us to the south with that wave. Some have a lot of snow in southern VA and NC and others just a little as temps are marginal down there...but the bottom line is there are way more misses south then north for that threat and that is how I like it at this range. If we get to day 7 and the focus is still south then I might start to worry about suppression but at day 11 south is where we want it imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Some of us actually know how to use the guidance as a tool, and understand they are not a means for instant gratification. The Ji freak outs are because he wants the latter. there are FAR better sites than TT for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Models did lock on to the last 2 winter weather producers on February 10-11 and 19-20 pretty early on. and the dec 9 storm.....and the the january snowstorm and the january 19th storm--the ohio valley storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern is LOADED...Ji is just being Ji lol...my comment was totally joking...i was just trying to appease a leesburg04 joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Mdecoy said: The good news is, most of the 10-15 day fantasy snow/cold this year disappeared pretty quick instead of sucking us in for the last minute change of plans. It probably won't be long before we see the fail written all over the early March "potential" and we can gear up for spring! You look at long range "threats" totally wrong. We spend a large portion of like 80% of our winters in a no hope it aint gonna snow no way no how shutout pattern. That is just the reality of our crappy snow climo. So when a "chance" comes along...even if its only like a 20% probability, at day 10 we talk about it. But most of the threats we discuss are not truly high probability. And MOST of our snow ends up coming out of those low probability chances. It's pretty rare that we get those ideal perfect setups where there is a high (like 40% or above) chance of snow from 10 days away. Ironically the early December threat was probably the only such one this year and it was a total fail for most of us. But even though its worth talking about...and some of them hit, and most of our snow comes that way... the majority of those day 10 "threats" will fail. We know that. They are all very very low probability. So its not some forecasting fail or discussion fail when these day 10 threats don't turn into snow. We all know that most of these won't work out. But if we only discussed threats that had a high probability we would basically have lots of months with NOTHING to talk about. Some of us like to discuss the weather even if it won't result in snow in our yard. If you do not that is totally fine also...but then maybe this is the wrong place for you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol...my comment was totally joking...i was just trying to appease a leesburg04 joke. You don't have to defend yourself to me... I get your shtick. I find it funny and amusing, and when you want to get serious you can and make good posts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with you regarding chasing the day 15 patterns all winter. The guidance has been awful past about day 11 with trying to go to the classic central pac nino look but failing to factor in the anomalous persistent interference around the Maritime continent. But when it comes to specific threats...the guidance has actually done pretty good from around day 12 in. The early December storm that crushed central and southern VA was seen past day 10. Shame it missed us but being off by like 100 miles from 12 days away is not a model fail imo. Those SWFE's along the front in Mid January that ended up mostly/all rain in our area but crushed north of us was seen from range too. They teased us with snow for a while at like day 12 but we know how they adjust 90% of the time without blocking and in the end they were right on time and pretty close to what guidance showed 12 days out only adjusted about 100 miles north. The TPV displacement in late January and the possability of anafront snows with it was modeled amazingly from long range. We even joked like a week out how there was no way guidance would see anafront snow from that range...but they did. Both of the snow/ice events we just had were modeled past day 10 and only went through what I would consider minor changes from 10 days out. The only big snow event in this region that was not seen well far out was the early January one. It has been a weird year for the NWP. Complete and total failure at picking out the general pattern trends at day 11-15 but pretty darn good at picking out the general idea for specific storm threats at day 10 (especially if we added in some common sense adjustments to how they would likely evolve)...which technically is usually harder and less accurate then general patterns. Go figure. I appreciate you taking the time to write all of this, but I was just trolling y'all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Almost appears that besides the -EPO dive, there is some help to from the PV in its orientation ( early March ) due to this event ( see below ) that may sharpen up the trough and aid in a direct discharge of arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 38 minutes ago, mappy said: I appreciate you taking the time to write all of this, but I was just trolling y'all. I can be slow sometimes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, frd said: Almost appears that besides the -EPO dive, there is some help to from the PV in its orientation ( early March ) due to this event ( see below ) that may sharpen up the trough and aid in a direct discharge of arctic air. The idea of the TPV getting displaced and slowly rotating through Ontario and Quebec is a very good look for us in March. Sometimes the indexes don't tell the whole story. There really isn't a good way to measure that phenomenon on any of the major teleconnections but that general look has worked for us many a time. It lead to probably our greatest combination of March cold/snow in 1960. It worked for the March 1993 bomb. It lead to a cold/snowy period in March 1965, 1978, 1984, 1996, 2014, and 2015. A -EPO by itself is not necessarily a good snow look. What does make a -EPO work is if there is either some blocking on the atlantic side also (ridge bridge) OR a displaced TPV into central/eastern Canada to suppress the attempts at ridging in the east. Looks like we get a little of both... we start the period with some NAO help and a ridge bridge which helps to severely displace the TPV to the south and flood the eastern US with cold which sets up a pretty good period in early March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The idea of the TPV getting displaced and slowly rotating through Ontario and Quebec is a very good look for us in March. Sometimes the indexes don't tell the whole story. There really isn't a good way to measure that phenomenon on any of the major teleconnections but that general look has worked for us many a time. It lead to probably our greatest combination of March cold/snow in 1960. It worked for the March 1993 bomb. It lead to a cold/snowy period in March 1965, 1978, 1984, 1996, 2014, and 2015. A -EPO by itself is not necessarily a good snow look. What does make a -EPO work is if there is either some blocking on the atlantic side also (ridge bridge) OR a displaced TPV into central/eastern Canada to suppress the attempts at ridging in the east. Looks like we get a little of both... we start the period with some NAO help and a ridge bridge which helps to severely displace the TPV to the south and flood the eastern US with cold which sets up a pretty good period in early March. You could almost envision a Miller A in this scheme. Looking at the flow and such. One facet of interest is whether we get that ellusive -NAO blip. Not sure we need it, not sure whether it is a plus or a minus if it does manifest itself. Certainly the wave breaking and the North Atlantic is active argue we might. An upper Midwest cyclone and the bomb next week racing to the NE after we get those high winds on Monday. Plus the warmth screaming Northward form Scandinavia. I don't see a +PNA spike, so there is that. But maybe it wil be on the way up in later forecasts. Not sure either the eventual path of Wutip. But, certainly seems we have coupled ocean and atmosphere now with the continued -SOI and more Modaki -ish look. An evolving situation. Shorter wavelenghts argue for a possible explosive impact somewhere on the East Coast. But, the way this winter has gone no one is going to sound the alarms just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 FWIW the euro killed the GEFS and GEPS regarding the MJO progression. It is now spiked into 8 and heading towards Phase 1 soon. The SOI continues negative at -19 today and it looks like one more severe negative spike coming the next 5 days. By about day 7 it looks like it may start to trend positive again and flip back positive after day 10. That doesn't concern me though as the damage is done, and by the time the impact of that would reach us it would be mid March. For the record I do not think this winter lingers into April like last year. The way all the guidance is progressing the pattern once the EPO ridge breaks down some and the trough lifts we probably do torch, but I think the guidance may be rushing that some. I think we flip warm around March 15-20 or so. That would fit the SOI flip back positive in 7-10 days and the MJO progressing to phase 4 around mid March. Regarding some of the post mortem discussions right now about this winter. There is a lot of chatter about the TNH and the warm waters east of Australia regarding the failure of this winter to fully take on nino characteristics. I see both arguments...but wrt to TNH it is simply a measure of the jet pattern NOT a cause of it. And since the TNH is typically negative in a nino its kind of just another way to measure the failure of the nino not a predictive tool to do better next time. The warm water east of Australia probably did have an impact wrt the tropical forcing in that region and the interference it produced. But again, not sure that would help us next time because looking back at the sst guidance in the fall and most of them failed to pick up on that until very late. So we probably wouldn't have seen that problem coming. My take away, looking at all the weak modoki years...is that a LOT of them failed to fully take on classic modoki patterns. Most of the typical modoki years we think of were moderate/strong. The bottom line is that weak modoki nino's have a tendence to be bullied around by OTHER influences. Out of 7 weak modoiki years ONLY 1978 fully took on the classic look for a majority of the winter. 2015 got it done but in a somewhat unusual way for a modoki nino. 6/7 weak modoki had a significant period of winter that lacked the classic look and some of them never attained that look and were total fails like 1959 and 1995. This year isn't on that level just didn't live up to the "hype" of the better modoki years. However, those years were pretty much in the moderate to strong category. I definitely won't fall victim to high expectations from a modoki next time UNLESS its a moderate to strong with a predicted ONI peaking over ~1.2. Weak ones are variable but typically not blockbuster years. And frankly...out of the 10 east based nino's since 1950 NONE have been a blockbuster winter. They range from total crap to average, and the 2 that featured one top 10 HECS storm 1983 and 2016 managed to be above average snowfall years because of that one storm. Really the overall nino numbers are skewed because 6/7 of the moderate/strong modoki years were blockbuster historic winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Some additional interesting dates have started to pop up looking at some of the overnight runs of the GFS. March 1958 shows up off the 6z GFS run. 1993 and 1960 are still there also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Top day 11 analog is March 1 1980. If we could repeat that but shifted north 100 miles we would be very happy. I think DC got 6” on the northern fringe but the big snow was central and southern VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Top day 11 analog is March 1 1980. If we could repeat that but shifted north 100 miles we would be very happy. I think DC got 6” on the northern fringe but the big snow was central and southern VA. LOL, that would be unacceptable for Northern DE. Some chatter I hear though online is, despite the analogs, some think a rather deep storm that effects portions of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Top day 11 analog is March 1 1980. If we could repeat that but shifted north 100 miles we would be very happy. I think DC got 6” on the northern fringe but the big snow was central and southern VA. I can't find a map of that storm snowfall wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 So I hear we’re hunting Unicorns? Found this one yesterday while duckpin bowling. I spoke with it. Said a Miller A is quite possible at the beginning of March, but look out on March 16.....Duclaw Unicorn Farts release day. Hope it’s just farts and nothing more. I’d hate to be shoveling anything else beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 From HM, hmm, more lag and different evolutions than common composites. Well now that is interesting. I read a couple weeks ago there is always a lag before effects are to be felt, so HM does this mean the lag is longer still , because of what is happening this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Top day 11 analog is March 1 1980. If we could repeat that but shifted north 100 miles we would be very happy. I think DC got 6” on the northern fringe but the big snow was central and southern VA. Pretty sure BWI got in on the action. Maybe 4-5. Fast drop off north of there. Probably only an inch or two here. Cold storm I believe. North Carolina did well so the airmass was legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 30 minutes ago, yoda said: I can't find a map of that storm snowfall wise That storm was a little further south than I thought... northern fringe looked like the PA line... with a couple inches right near the PA/MD line BWI: 4.7" DCA: 4.8 IAD: 6.4 EZF: 9.,1" CHO 9.2" Richmond: 13" Norfolk: 19" Elizabeth City NC: 25" The jack was along the VA/NC border close to the coast. So maybe we need that adjusted north 200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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