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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker

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  On 2/22/2019 at 12:55 AM, psuhoffman said:
Euro weekly control says we just have to be REALLY patient...
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Ah, this is already reminding me of the teases we got in April last year. I came back from Sprint Break in late March thinking it was going to snow later that week. Spent time on a beach thinking about snow... what a waste
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  On 2/22/2019 at 4:06 AM, nj2va said:

I would love an early spring...not a fan of 40 and rain on March 28.  

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How about 7" on that day...1984 seems like yesterday!

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/1984-report-colts-leave-baltimore-overnight/6802490

I remember that storm.  Strong Noreaster.  Frequent gusts of wind to 50-55mph on the evening of the 27th.  Official forecast was rain changing to snow before ending, little or no accumulation.  Here in Harford we got 7" maybe more.  And it was heavy AF.  Broke two shovels at the bottom of the lane with lots of water running beneath.

Also woke up to the lowest recorded barometric pressure of 28.87".  Well until 03/13/93 (28.53")  March can be amazing here.

And fickle too!  3/1/80 we got 7" and exactly a week later it was close to 80 and we had severe that evening.

What I do NOT enjoy is cold April fog/drizzle cold air damming nonsense.  Typically ends suddenly with summer DPs in the 70s.  1989 had a lot of that.

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  On 2/22/2019 at 12:21 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I know nobody will shed tears for me, but I’ve gone an entire season without seeing more than 2.5” of snowfall in an event. 

Tired of 4-6” events after going two years without a warning level event? 

**** these guys

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Congratulations!!! Glad to see you finally admit that the 2+ feet you saw with your LES chase was in fact FAKE SNOW. 

Fake Snow Lab - Testing the Best Recipes for Artificial ...

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Not worth overthinking at 10+ days but we did see some improvement on the EPS for the possible east coast storm (roughly centered day 10/11). Better timing with the blocking at 500's vs. the 12z as it is slower with that feature giving us a slightly better setup leading into any possible storm. Trough in the midwest is coming in stronger (-pressure anomalies) and deeper suggestive of more interaction with the surface low. Looking at the surface we are also seeing a stronger signal for a low through this time frame. At this point the EPS seems to favor a low to our west transferring to off the coast. Did see a slight reduction on the snowfall means but that is counter balanced but what looks to be more members seeing the possibility of a storm through that time frame. Far too soon to be even discussing whether we are talking rain or snow it should be enough just to know that the EPS continues to strengthen the signal for a storm. 

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Lets predict the Ji response this morning.

last nights runs were a disaster worst of the winter

we always trend in the wrong direction 

FV3 took away 30" from me

we are always to north or to south

winters over

feel free to add as we all know....I think we should start a go fund me page for Ji to hire a new writer :hurrbear:

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last nights runs were terrible......how can the euro show rain D8/9 during our prime cold window

we hate momentum....always go the opposite of what we want

FV3 took away so much snow for me...its now become clipper amounts

Too north for sliders...too south for Miller Bs...to east for clippers...to west for coastals

winters cooked

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  On 2/22/2019 at 11:41 AM, leesburg 04 said:

Lets predict the Ji response this morning.

last nights runs were a disaster worst of the winter

we always trend in the wrong direction 

FV3 took away 30" from me

we are always to north or to south

winters over

feel free to add as we all know....I think we should start a go fund me page for Ji to hire a new writer :hurrbear:

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With superior predicting skills like this you should be a meteorologist! :lol:

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  On 2/22/2019 at 11:56 AM, Deer Whisperer said:

With superior predicting skills like this you should be a meteorologist! :lol:

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we are looking too far into the future on the models.  the snow we just had started as a rain event and trended in our favor.  no one like to wait days between threats but that's the cards we have been dealt.  I think/hope we have one more decent event before its curtains.   

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  On 2/22/2019 at 11:53 AM, Ji said:

last nights runs were terrible......how can the euro show rain D8/9 during our prime cold window

we hate momentum....always go the opposite of what we want

FV3 took away so much snow for me...its now become clipper amounts

Too north for sliders...too south for Miller Bs...to east for clippers...to west for coastals

winters cooked

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My man  :)

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  On 2/22/2019 at 12:09 PM, BristowWx said:

we are looking too far into the future on the models.  the snow we just had started as a rain event and trended in our favor.  no one like to wait days between threats but that's the cards we have been dealt.  I think/hope we have one more decent event before its curtains.   

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Some of us actually know how to use the guidance as a tool, and understand they are not a means for instant gratification. The Ji freak outs are because he wants the latter.

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