AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 The most extreme March NAO's and the months that followed. -1.83 -0.30 -1.25 -0.05 -0.51 0.37 0.63 -0.98 1.85 0.28 1.38 -0.27 0.97 0.01 2.05 -2.47 0.99 -0.10 0.16 -2.47 0.14 -0.37 -1.96 0.37 -0.24 -1.38 -1.73 -1.56 -0.07 Edit: 2 February's in a row with <-1.00 PNA. 4/5 times the following February is +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 FV3 has a coastal on the 19th but the model appears to still be evolving on a correct solution. Boston gets crushed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: When every month DJFM has similar NAO, the following Winter is same-NAO 16/19 times for the whole, 53/76 months. I think it has to do with Atlantic tripole https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50292-negative-nao-winter/?do=findComment&comment=5059074 Chuck what do you think next winter in regards to the -NAO ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: Chuck what do you think next winter in regards to the -NAO ? It's really hard to get a NAO block right now. If it happens, it would be artificial to be honest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Oh canada 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 5 hours ago, Chris78 said: Oh canada That would be great, eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 9 hours ago, Chris78 said: Oh canada I think Ji would be okay with this map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, yoda said: I think Ji would be okay with this map That’s not a foot, ji is mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 36 minutes ago, yoda said: I think Ji would be okay with this map The ground is so muddy that Parr's Ridge sank into one, massive sinkhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Hmmm. ICON is pretty close at the end of its run as well. Definitely a signal on multiple models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Yuck, just realized we are back to model runs being an hour later. Was wondering why I couldn’t see the GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/9/2019 at 10:55 PM, psuhoffman said: Warning signs are always easier to see in hindsight. There are always going to be some factors that could throw a wrench in things. There are so many variables and they are never going to be 100 percent perfect. There were some legit "warning signs" which I will get into below but It's hard to say how easy it would have been back in the fall to see that they would indeed interfere so heavily with the nino signal. IMO the nino didn't so much as fail as it was offset and muted by other influences. We did have a weak nino. The ONI peaked at +.9 in OND and the DJF number was +.8. It actually wasn't far off from the top analogs I picked out back in the fall. 2002/3 had a winter ONI of .9. 1978 was .7, 2015 was only .6 and 1964 was 1.1. 2009/10 was always low on my analog list because it was a much stronger Enso peaking around 1.6. And there were "hints" of a nino pattern from time to time, even when the MJO went into god awful phases again in January we still had a major arctic outbreak and some snow events. So in the end the real pattern ended up a blend of the nino forcing and the mjo forcing. Regarding the MJO, it does seem there is some truth to what JB was saying about the warm pool east of Australia. Others have also said that could be what caused the persistently +SOI and convection near the Maritime Continent. Problem is that wasn't really easy to see from back in the fall. That warm pool didnt ramp up until winter and wasn't on any of the guidance. Some of the experimental work to assess the impact of MJO on tangible North American weather is yielding interesting results. For example, typically, Phase 8 of the MJO is typically cold in the east DJF but, when the experimental Multivariate PNA (MVP) is negative, it actually trends warm. MVP is assessing OLR as a decent proxy for tropical convection in the MJO domains as well as streamwaves at 850 and 200 hPA in near real time . If you look at the MVP plot for the last 90 days, you can see it has indeed been negative during the time period we expected the best outcomes according to the ENSO and MJO forecasts. If y'all want to dig into MVP a bit, here's some decent reading. Peer-reviewed, evidenced-based paper: mwr-d-13-00118.1.pdf White paper inject for NWS staff: https://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/37CDPW/37cdpw-cschreck.pdf Easy-to-digest slide deck from the researchers: https://slideplayer.com/slide/13103907/ Link to real-time Multivariate PNA outputs: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/extratropics/ BTW, click around that site if you are interested in tropical forcing outputs. There's an absolute treasure trove of MJO & tropical forcing data there. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Morch HECS or bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, Scraff said: Morch HECS or bust. Feb 48th looks to have promise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Feb 48th looks to have promise. Oh good. Sun angle shouldn’t matter on that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Why has no one mentioned the 12z CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Found this interesting and horrifying We're due index is very high for 2019/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, Interstate said: Why has no one mentioned the 12z CMC? Better than 0z for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Better than 0z for us.Not for CHO. I’m out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not for CHO. I’m out Honestly, so am I. I'm not expecting any more meaningful snow for anyone outside the mountains. I was reaped for a reason. But the fantasy GGEM is still fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 is this going to be able make it up the coast and produce its own cold air lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 The euro has a tropical-ish system in the gulf next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Cool air would be long gone even if that storm were to move up the coast. Need the wave from 3-days prior to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: is this going to be able make it up the coast and produce its own cold air lol January 2016 looked exactly like that on the euro day 10 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: January 2016 looked exactly like that on the euro day 10 Oh stop!!! Lol Now see, after the busted expectations this year...everytime someone throws out a comparison to something epic, I wanna throw something, lol (I know, I know doesn't mean anything, but still!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: January 2016 looked exactly like that on the euro day 10 thanks JB 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Control gets it up here lol. I'm going to assume its snow because I can't really tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, LP08 said: Control gets it up here lol. I'm going to assume its snow because I can't really tell. Not that it matters but definitely not snow. No trough-iness on east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Not that it matters but definitely not snow. No trough-iness on east coast Its snow...Not that it matters one iota but would be fun to get a 966 up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Fringed pass 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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