CAPE Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 2017 was a neutral year. Everyone kept calling it a Nina but it was only like -.3 during the winter. It was cold neutral. Yeah and as suck ass as Nina winters generally are, flukes do happen. Pretty interesting that in early Jan of both 2017 and 18 there were big coastal snowstorms that crushed the immediate MA coast and had little to no impact NW of I-95. They were pretty similar in track and amounts, both produced 10-15" in the jack zone, difference being the 2018 storm was a legit blizzard, and of course it happened in a Nina year(bomb cyclone!). Both storms gave my yard a pedestrian 5-6", which is why I chased each one at the beach. Goes without saying I made an excellent decision both times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 It looks like Spring has settled in by the end of the 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It looks like Spring has settled in by the end of the 18z GFS. Yea it seems to happen around March 20 every year! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 FV3 GFS likes the upslope potential for the following Saturday in ski country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 I think most people on here are ready for spring lol but looking at the overnight runs of the gfs/fv3/GEFS the window of the 17-22 still looks to be there. It does look dry at the moment but both the gfs/fv3 shows shortwaves diving down under us and exiting the Carolina coast. Looking at 850 anomalies on the GEFS it would be plenty cold for snow if we could get one of the shortwaves to blow up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Wow....just a terrible stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Anthony Masiello "The sequence of events next week across the Pacific is reminiscent of the 1980s and 1990s. There's an extratropical/tropical interaction for exciting the low-frequency signal's forcing, producing a phase 8-like response in the PNA sector" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: Wow....just a terrible stretch At least the PNA isn't always negative like 16-17, 17-18. I venture to say Ocean currents will look much different in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 4 hours ago, Ji said: Wow....just a terrible stretch Just a crappy, crappy Atlantic this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 maybe next year we will get a repeat of 09-10(10 years later) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Really warm. Euro might have something on its tail end though. This reminds me of 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 We have a really nice +PNA around this time. GFS does this: Euro just misses Wave 1 and is loading up a Wave 2 I've seen this before though, the +PNA won't trend any stronger so it's either going to be rain or nonevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: We have a really nice +PNA around this time. GFS does this: Euro just misses Wave 1 and is loading up a Wave 2 I've seen this before though, the +PNA won't trend any stronger so it's either going to be rain or nonevent. Where have you seen this before ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Where have you seen this before ? The wavelength cycle since about April doesn't give room for any more deepening. unless something changes... (it won't) ie, NAO dampening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Where have you seen this before ? You two should go somewhere private and work this out!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 The pattern isn’t bad but none of the ensembles or ops are picking up on any actual threats. Just dry cold. That can change as discrete systems come in range but if something is going to show we better start to see hints soon. Around day 12 looks the most likely. The day 8 wave needs to trend a lot less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern isn’t bad but none of the ensembles or ops are picking up on any actual threats. Just dry cold. That can change as discrete systems come in range but if something is going to show we better start to see hints soon. Around day 12 looks the most likely. The day 8 wave needs to trend a lot less progressive. Ask and yee shall receive. It’s not much but suddenly the EPS is peppered with a handful of snowstorms day 10-15 and several other storms that are close. The definite majority is still dry though. Most members are just bone dry day 6-15. But several now blow up one of those waves day 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ask and yes shall receive. It’s not much but suddenly the EPS is peppered with a handful of snowstorms day 10-15 and several other storms that are close. The definite majority is still dry though. Most members are just bone dry day 6-15. But several now blow up one of those waves day 10-15. I'm good with bone dry. A late wet slop snowstorm wouldn't change my feelings about this winter. Given the the extremely favorable winter outlooks, the persistent epic LR pattern teases on the models, and the fact that every single event minimized/under-performed in my yard, makes this the worst winter in several years here. A late "save" would at best change the grade from a D---- to a D--. Complete suckage either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I'm good with bone dry. A late wet slop snowstorm wouldn't change my feelings about this winter. Given the the extremely favorable winter outlooks, the persistent epic LR pattern teases on the models, and the fact that every single event minimized/under-performed in my yard, makes this the worst winter in several years here. A late "save" would at best change the grade from a D---- to a D--. Complete suckage either way. Sounds like Mr Grumpy needs a bourbon barrel stout. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You two should go somewhere private and work this out!!! Not sure it would ever work out. One dude is very smart, but exists in an alternate reality, and the other is just dumb as a rock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: Sounds like Mr Grumpy needs a bourbon barrel stout. I mean, you couldn't be any closer. I am currently sipping a DFH WWS. Oh sooo good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 And it's Mr Bitter, not grumpy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Bitter Been a week since my reaping. I think the bitterness has been mitigated. I am in a better place now. There is beer here, lots of beer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Given the the extremely favorable winter outlooks But were those favorable outlooks really realistic though? From discussion I have seen on here, it seems like a lot of warning signs were missed. No disagreement about the LR models though. I'm not sure I will ever again be able to take them seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 You’re honestly a sicko if you still want slop at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 30 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: You’re honestly a sicko if you still want slop at this point. Nods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 I'm liking the forecast for Friday with a high of 64 and a chance of thunderstorms. I'm tired of failing this winter, bring on the thunderstorms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 55 minutes ago, cbmclean said: But were those favorable outlooks really realistic though? From discussion I have seen on here, it seems like a lot of warning signs were missed. No disagreement about the LR models though. I'm not sure I will ever again be able to take them seriously. Well, the Nino pretty much completely failed, and many of the winter outlooks were predicated on that. But to be fair, it was clearly going to be a late developer it it did occur at all, and there were some who were hyping early blocking etc, similar to 2009-10, which was clearly a "reach". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Been a week since my reaping. I think the bitterness has been mitigated. I am in a better place now. There is beer here, lots of beer. I’m more of a bourbon man myself but good beer is good beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 I am eagerly awaiting a PSU postmortem for this winter. In the meantime, does anybody know if the extreme SSWE produced some good blocking for someone, somewhere? The eastern CONUS obviously did not cash in, but I am hoping somebody did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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