psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: The Casino Royale of weather picks that was my pre coffee list.... my post coffee list would be Strong + 1958 Mod + 2010 weak + 1978 Neutral 2014 weak - 1967 mod - 1996 strong - 2000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: that was my pre coffee list.... my post coffee list would be Strong + 1958 Mod + 2010 weak + 1978 Neutral 2014 weak - 1967 mod - 1996 strong - 2000 So, expect snowfall next winter to range from 0 to 100". Solid forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: So, expect snowfall next winter to range from 0 to 100". Solid forecast. We already know your forecast for your area lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 48 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: So, expect snowfall next winter to range from 0 to 100". Solid forecast. 1.2” to 77”. Get it right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 44 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: So, expect snowfall next winter to range from 0 to 100". Solid forecast. That's all you got out of that? Smh Upon closer inspection we oughta feel a bit better knowing that sometimes the good/great, above average winters came every 3-4 years...and next winter will indeed be 4 years! So IF recent history follows that pattern, we oughta be due. And also we will still have low solar, it seems...In our history, either just before or just after a solar minimum, we can cash in (not 100 percent, but seemed to have more good winters overall. @psuhoffman can correct me if I'm wrong on that, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 50 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's all you got out of that? Smh Upon closer inspection we oughta feel a bit better knowing that sometimes the good/great, above average winters came every 3-4 years...and next winter will indeed be 4 years! So IF recent history follows that pattern, we oughta be due. And also we will still have low solar, it seems...In our history, either just before or just after a solar minimum, we can cash in (not 100 percent, but seemed to have more good winters overall. @psuhoffman can correct me if I'm wrong on that, lol) Regarding the solar minimum, yes we have had a high frequency of above average snowfall the year following a solar minimum. But its not 100% so it might not happen this time AND its hard to predict exactly when the minimum will happen. Could be next year or the year after or the year after. It is likely coming soon though. But I wouldn't hang my hat just on that. As for the rest...and your implication that our recent run of below avg snowfall in Baltimore increases our chances of more snow next year... that is completely wrong and has absolutely no evidence to support it. Frankly I am a little annoyed since I took the time to run all the numbers about a month ago and prove that statistically our chances of more snow next year if we have below avg snow this year is absolutely no higher than it would be in any other year. And yet here we are again still dealing with this claim. I will refute it again. First of all i have no idea what you consider a "BIG YEAR" but lets say 30" for the sake of this argument. If we look at the frequency between 30" winters in Baltimore it is.... 8 times Baltimore has had back to back 30"+ winters another 9 times they only had to wait 1 year between them once we had to wait 2 years 5 times we had to wait 3 years twice we had to wait 5 years 3 times we had to wait 6 years once we had to wait 8 years once we had to wait 9 years once we had to wait 10 years and once we had to wait 21 freaking years!!!! There is no statistically significant trend there. Furthermore you are continually using statistics wrong. The odds of having 4 or 5 bad years in a row are pretty low before any such run starts...for the same reason the odds of getting a coin to land on heads 4 times in a row is pretty low. But once the first 3 coin flips are over...regardless of what the outcome was....the odds the next one is heads is 50/50. The statistics show that all the times Baltimore has had 3 below average snowfall years...the following year was below average about 70% of the time!!!! Which is about the same chance it will be below average in any given year. There is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that we have a better chance at snow next year because the last few years were below average. Stop telling yourself that lie to make yourself feel better about our chances next year. You are only setting yourself up for more hurt. The TRUTH is that based on history there is a 70% chance next year will suck donkey a$$. The truth is there is a 70% chance that EVERY YEAR will suck donkey a$$. That is because our climo sucks donkey a$$. We get 2-3 good winters every decade and the rest suck donkey a$$. And there is absolutely no rhyme or reason to when those good years occur. Sometimes they have been 3 in a row or 4/5 and sometimes we have had to wait 10 or 20 years between them. So you are better off just assuming every year will suck donkey a$$ and then you won't be full tilt bent out of shape all the time when it does suck donkey a$$. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Regarding the solar minimum, yes we have had a high frequency of above average snowfall the year following a solar minimum. But its not 100% so it might not happen this time AND its hard to predict exactly when the minimum will happen. Could be next year or the year after or the year after. It is likely coming soon though. But I wouldn't hang my hat just on that. As for the rest...and your implication that our recent run of below avg snowfall in Baltimore increases our chances of more snow next year... that is completely wrong and has absolutely no evidence to support it. Frankly I am a little annoyed since I took the time to run all the numbers about a month ago and prove that statistically our chances of more snow next year if we have below avg snow this year is absolutely no higher than it would be in any other year. And yet here we are again still dealing with this claim. I will refute it again. First of all i have no idea what you consider a "BIG YEAR" but lets say 30" for the sake of this argument. If we look at the frequency between 30" winters in Baltimore it is.... 8 times Baltimore has had back to back 30"+ winters another 9 times they only had to wait 1 year between them once we had to wait 2 years 5 times we had to wait 3 years twice we had to wait 5 years 3 times we had to wait 6 years once we had to wait 8 years once we had to wait 9 years once we had to wait 10 years and once we had to wait 21 freaking years!!!! There is no statistically significant trend there. Furthermore you are continually using statistics wrong. The odds of having 4 or 5 bad years in a row are pretty low before any such run starts...for the same reason the odds of getting a coin to land on heads 4 times in a row is pretty low. But once the first 3 coin flips are over...regardless of what the outcome was....the odds the next one is heads is 50/50. The statistics show that all the times Baltimore has had 3 below average snowfall years...the following year was below average about 70% of the time!!!! Which is about the same chance it will be below average in any given year. There is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that we have a better chance at snow next year because the last few years were below average. Stop telling yourself that lie to make yourself feel better about our chances next year. You are only setting yourself up for more hurt. The TRUTH is that based on history there is a 70% chance next year will suck donkey a$$. The truth is there is a 70% chance that EVERY YEAR will suck donkey a$$. That is because our climo sucks donkey a$$. We get 2-3 good winters every decade and the rest suck donkey a$$. And there is absolutely no rhyme or reason to when those good years occur. Sometimes they have been 3 in a row or 4/5 and sometimes we have had to wait 10 or 20 years between them. So you are better off just assuming every year will suck donkey a$$ and then you won't be full tilt bent out of shape all the time when it does suck donkey a$$. Hey psu you need to leave teaching and start your own weather site with showme and BobChill as consultants and CAPE can be a market maker. Lets corner the energy and commodities markets and take DT's share away. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Just now, frd said: So you are better off just assuming every year will suck donkey a$$ and then you won't be full tilt bent out of shape all the time when it does suck donkey a$$. You could charge for this type of advice. Priceless ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 GFS doesn't look warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 We are blasting a +AO now in the medium/long range. Weird +PNA from unseasonal Kelvin wave keeps it moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, frd said: Hey psu you need to leave teaching and start your own weather site with showme and BobChill as consultants and CAPE can be a market maker. Lets corner the energy and commodities markets and take DT's share away. LOL LOL....that would be like a dream job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 I probably should post this in the thread for next winter but since the topic came up here and probabilities and all....I thought I would post this. I compiled this a while ago and just added this year (assuming there is no more snow at BWI). It's BWI snowfall broken down by enso. Methodology For this chart I used the ONI peak for either the NDJ or DJF period. Super nino was a peak above 2 strong nino was a peak between 1.5 and 1.9 moderate was 1 to 1.4 weak was .5 to .9 Neutral was -.4 to +.4 Weak Nina was -.5 to -.9 Mod nina was -1 to -1.4 strong nina was -1.5 or less The adjusted avg is taking out any obvious outliers from the set The median is probably the best judge of what the "most likely outcome" is from each set. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 I aiways assume each year will suck donkey a$$, yet I still end up getting bent out of shape over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Great data presentation, @psuhoffman. Glaringly obvious which states are good, which suck donkey a$$, and what an anomoly 1996 was...... just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 If anyone cares to take a look, WB is showing off their new model page for free (absent ECMWF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 I still have not given up hope for the period 18-23rd.....at least we are in the ball park for a shot of something perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 A couple obvious take aways from that chart.... Nina's just suck suck suck here. 1996 is the obvious outlier. Out of 25 Nina's since 1950 it is the ONLY blockbuster year. And there were only 2 other years that were even a little above average...so realistically when it's a nina we have to just assume its going to suck and we are going to have to simply hope for a fluke snow or two but kiss any notions of a "big year" goodbye. If another 1996 type fluke happens GREAT but don't even let yourself think its a legit chance. Most of them do have SOME snow though...only a few were total absolute dumpster fire fails...most of the time somewhere in a nina we luck our way into at least one or two decent snowfalls. Often they come during a period of -NAO and sometimes in March. Other than that, the most variable enso is neutral...pretty obvious. We have had some blockbusters and some total stinkers with equal frequency. They are a total wildcard. Weak Nino's are also highly variable but overall they tend to be ok to good winters but not blockbusters...this year kind of fits the mold of what to expect in a weak nino. Moderate to strong nino's are MONEY. That is what we want to root for. The odd thing is....they have all been modoki. All 9 of the mod to strong nino's were central based. So is the most important thing being central based....or the strength? What is the connection? East based nino's tend to either be weak...or become super ninos. But overall if we combine moderate and strong nino's 6/9 were blockbusters. That is by far our best chance at a big year. Super ninos are also clearly similar with a warm bias and 2 of them we got nailed with a HECS and the other 2 we did not and they were snowless. So.... obviously we want a mod to strong nino, and after that our next best chance at getting a big year is in neutral years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Really impressive Pacific +PNA pattern on 12z GFS ensembles... but just as impressive +NAO.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So.... obviously we want a mod to strong nino, and after that our next best chance at getting a big year is in neutral years. Excellent summary ! Wonder what the PDO associations are like across the means. Wondering to myself whether the PDO is more positive in stronger El Ninos. Yes, would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I probably should post this in the thread for next winter but since the topic came up here and probabilities and all....I thought I would post this. I compiled this a while ago and just added this year (assuming there is no more snow at BWI). It's BWI snowfall broken down by enso. Methodology For this chart I used the ONI peak for either the NDJ or DJF period. Super nino was a peak above 2 strong nino was a peak between 1.5 and 1.9 moderate was 1 to 1.4 weak was .5 to .9 Neutral was -.4 to +.4 Weak Nina was -.5 to -.9 Mod nina was -1 to -1.4 strong nina was -1.5 or less The adjusted avg is taking out any obvious outliers from the set The median is probably the best judge of what the "most likely outcome" is from each set. so we just want strong Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Nice warm-up coming. Nope.. the climate always changes. Strong Nino/-NAO right now would be my guess. 100" season. Otherwise we are drying out snow-wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: A couple obvious take aways from that chart.... Nina's just suck suck suck here. 1996 is the obvious outlier. Out of 25 Nina's since 1950 it is the ONLY blockbuster year. And there were only 2 other years that were even a little above average...so realistically when it's a nina we have to just assume its going to suck and we are going to have to simply hope for a fluke snow or two but kiss any notions of a "big year" goodbye. If another 1996 type fluke happens GREAT but don't even let yourself think its a legit chance. Most of them do have SOME snow though...only a few were total absolute dumpster fire fails...most of the time somewhere in a nina we luck our way into at least one or two decent snowfalls. Often they come during a period of -NAO and sometimes in March. Other than that, the most variable enso is neutral...pretty obvious. We have had some blockbusters and some total stinkers with equal frequency. They are a total wildcard. Weak Nino's are also highly variable but overall they tend to be ok to good winters but not blockbusters...this year kind of fits the mold of what to expect in a weak nino. Moderate to strong nino's are MONEY. That is what we want to root for. The odd thing is....they have all been modoki. All 9 of the mod to strong nino's were central based. So is the most important thing being central based....or the strength? What is the connection? East based nino's tend to either be weak...or become super ninos. But overall if we combine moderate and strong nino's 6/9 were blockbusters. That is by far our best chance at a big year. Super ninos are also clearly similar with a warm bias and 2 of them we got nailed with a HECS and the other 2 we did not and they were snowless. So.... obviously we want a mod to strong nino, and after that our next best chance at getting a big year is in neutral years. see you on march 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 No chance in this +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Regarding the solar minimum, yes we have had a high frequency of above average snowfall the year following a solar minimum. But its not 100% so it might not happen this time AND its hard to predict exactly when the minimum will happen. Could be next year or the year after or the year after. It is likely coming soon though. But I wouldn't hang my hat just on that. As for the rest...and your implication that our recent run of below avg snowfall in Baltimore increases our chances of more snow next year... that is completely wrong and has absolutely no evidence to support it. Frankly I am a little annoyed since I took the time to run all the numbers about a month ago and prove that statistically our chances of more snow next year if we have below avg snow this year is absolutely no higher than it would be in any other year. And yet here we are again still dealing with this claim. I will refute it again. First of all i have no idea what you consider a "BIG YEAR" but lets say 30" for the sake of this argument. If we look at the frequency between 30" winters in Baltimore it is.... 8 times Baltimore has had back to back 30"+ winters another 9 times they only had to wait 1 year between them once we had to wait 2 years 5 times we had to wait 3 years twice we had to wait 5 years 3 times we had to wait 6 years once we had to wait 8 years once we had to wait 9 years once we had to wait 10 years and once we had to wait 21 freaking years!!!! There is no statistically significant trend there. Furthermore you are continually using statistics wrong. The odds of having 4 or 5 bad years in a row are pretty low before any such run starts...for the same reason the odds of getting a coin to land on heads 4 times in a row is pretty low. But once the first 3 coin flips are over...regardless of what the outcome was....the odds the next one is heads is 50/50. The statistics show that all the times Baltimore has had 3 below average snowfall years...the following year was below average about 70% of the time!!!! Which is about the same chance it will be below average in any given year. There is absolutely NO EVIDENCE that we have a better chance at snow next year because the last few years were below average. Stop telling yourself that lie to make yourself feel better about our chances next year. You are only setting yourself up for more hurt. The TRUTH is that based on history there is a 70% chance next year will suck donkey a$$. The truth is there is a 70% chance that EVERY YEAR will suck donkey a$$. That is because our climo sucks donkey a$$. We get 2-3 good winters every decade and the rest suck donkey a$$. And there is absolutely no rhyme or reason to when those good years occur. Sometimes they have been 3 in a row or 4/5 and sometimes we have had to wait 10 or 20 years between them. So you are better off just assuming every year will suck donkey a$$ and then you won't be full tilt bent out of shape all the time when it does suck donkey a$$. First of all...I am actually considering any years above 20" a good year because that's the BWI average. So my analysis of the snowfall record is based on that. We went longer than 4 years without surpassing 20" only 4 times in our history. Sure could we see it again? Yeah.....but I always thought that the less something has happened, the less likely it is. But that's probably more feeling than numerical...so I take that back. So that's what I was looking at...and I saw three times on the record we had to wait longer than 4 years to eclipse that mark. So sure...we could go on an unfortunate run like the early-mid 70s.....just hasn't happened often.Since 1993, we've had a foot of snowfall at once every 3-4 years until we got to 2014 and it was back-to-back-back. Maybe that broke the trend...who knows? It could happen that it goes bad again...Or, it could be like other modoki ninos that have gone two years and been better the second year. And frankly I resent your assumption I'm saying this to make myself feel better. Don't make it personal and assume my psychology. Remember I had LOW expectations going into this winter and ya told me ya thought it was gonna be good! Sure I was wondering if whether the pattern of 1978-79 would repeat itself this year...It didn't and that's okay...If it don't happen next year, it don't happen. I won't trust anything but mod/strong modoki...so if that don't show up next year...ain't trustin' it, lol And the funny thing is..."2-3 good winters per decade" fits in pretty well with the "every 3-4 years" narrative, hahaha All that being said...perhaps it is wrong of me to say "we oughta be due"....because that's too definitive of a statement and not always the case. But I will stick to mentioning what has or hasn't happened often. Whether a certain thing means anything or not...fun to speculate, but no guarantees. And I didn't ignore your numbers earlier...sorry my statement made it look like that (I get that). Shoulda acknowledged/referenced those first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I probably should post this in the thread for next winter but since the topic came up here and probabilities and all....I thought I would post this. I compiled this a while ago and just added this year (assuming there is no more snow at BWI). It's BWI snowfall broken down by enso. Methodology For this chart I used the ONI peak for either the NDJ or DJF period. Super nino was a peak above 2 strong nino was a peak between 1.5 and 1.9 moderate was 1 to 1.4 weak was .5 to .9 Neutral was -.4 to +.4 Weak Nina was -.5 to -.9 Mod nina was -1 to -1.4 strong nina was -1.5 or less The adjusted avg is taking out any obvious outliers from the set The median is probably the best judge of what the "most likely outcome" is from each set. So what I said in the other thread is true then: strong Ninos are indeed the best. By the way, now I see why you listed 1972/73 as super Nino in the other thread- it was 2.0+ in NDJ. I had only looked at DJF. I hope this chart makes weenies stop rooting for a weak La Nina every year (that drives me nuts as much as the sun angle posts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 @Maestrobjwa Probabilities don’t work that way. Stats show there is no discernible season to season trends in snowfall. So think of my coin flip analogy. The odds of getting 5 heads in a tow is low. But once you get 4 heads in a row the chance of the next one being heads is still 50/50. If you look at all the instances where Baltimore has had 3 below avg years the chance of the next year being above avg is no better. 1978-79 was a neutral winter so no idea what your talking about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa Probabilities don’t work that way. Stats show there is no discernible season to season trends in snowfall. So think of my coin flip analogy. The odds of getting 5 heads in a tow is low. But once you get 4 heads in a row the chance of the next one being heads is still 50/50. If you look at all the instances where Baltimore has had 3 below avg years the chance of the next year being above avg is no better. 1978-79 was a neutral winter so no idea what your talking about there. Disregard...lol It was a silly curiosity of a very minuscule sample size (that thing I posted about about BWI having 2+ inches of snow in November, 0 inches of snow in Dec, 5 inches in January...wondering if that would turn into 33 inches in February like it did the last two times that happened, lolol Never was 100% serious...just a silly curiousity about whether it would repeat--no dice, haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: A couple obvious take aways from that chart.... Nina's just suck suck suck here. What do you think are the main drivers of nina suckage in our area? I'm thinking: 1) Tend to be more NS dominant, which means it's a lot harder to get something to dig enough to get under us. Miller B's like to run just north of us or jump over us and clobber NE. And we don't tend to get Miller A's or juiced up overrunning from the south without decent STJ. 2) Lack of consistent STJ also means we have problems getting enough chances for decent precip timing up with cold shots. If NS does get us, it's more light clipper-type deals. Overall it seems that a solid consistent STJ keeping precip chances aimed in our general direction is a key player in helping us have enough opportunities to score decently in a given winter. The obvious exception is a super-nino, which tends to cause temp problems unless we can get lucky with transient cold/blocking and then we get our HECS (eg 2016). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: I'm thinking: 1) Tend to be more NS dominant, which means it's a lot harder to get something to dig enough to get under us. Miller B's like to run just north of us or jump over us and clobber NE. And we don't tend to get Miller A's or juiced up overrunning from the south without decent STJ. 2) Lack of consistent STJ also means we have problems getting enough chances for decent precip timing up with cold shots. If NS does get us, it's more light clipper-type deals. And those two things were perfectly on display last year (and the year before, really!). If ya want a crash course on why ninas don't work...look no further than last year, lol The things we rely on to give us even a 50/50 chance simply aren't there often enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And those two things were perfectly on display last year (and the year before, really!). If ya want a crash course on why ninas don't work...look no further than last year, lol The things we rely on to give us even a 50/50 chance simply aren't there often enough! 2017 was a neutral year. Everyone kept calling it a Nina but it was only like -.3 during the winter. It was cold neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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