The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

[psuhoffman]

The day 11 analog package kind of supports my opinion that there is a "chance" and it is likely to be chilly BUT odds of a big snowstorm are low and the pattern favors minor events or to our north.  One decent snowstorm in our area shows up...1968 which was a 4-6" snowstorm NW of 95, 1-3" in the cities.  1993 still shows up so I guess there is always a chance....1984 was another decent analog.  But a lot of the rest were just chilly periods with some very minor snowfalls...1" or less and bigger snows to our north.  Northern stream dominant patterns.  

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First of all DC has had snow after March 15 several times in the last 10 years, including LAST YEAR.   Furthermore, the people in this forum that live in the northwestern 1/3 of this region and have some elevation have an even better chance to see snow after March 15.  Its obviously not as likely as during January/February but its far from impossible.

For instance these are my snowfall stats AFTER MARCH 15 the last 6 years

2018: 14.7"

2017: 3.1"

2016: 2.5"

2015: 5.5"

2014: 13.6"

2013: 6.8"

That is an average of 7.7" after March 15th the last 6 years.   

And lastly... no one is "rooting" for anything, we are just analyzing the patter.  It looks like it is going to be cold after about March 17 for a while...  there is nothing we can do about that whether we WANT it to be cold/snowy or not.  I am not sure what your point was....  do you want us to just ignore it because its late March?

Lol I just saw that comment.  This was March 17th of LAST YEAR.  And I live near DC.

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The day 11 analog package kind of supports my opinion that there is a "chance" and it is likely to be chilly BUT odds of a big snowstorm are low and the pattern favors minor events or to our north.  One decent snowstorm in our area shows up...1968 which was a 4-6" snowstorm NW of 95, 1-3" in the cities.  1993 still shows up so I guess there is always a chance....1984 was another decent analog.  But a lot of the rest were just chilly periods with some very minor snowfalls...1" or less and bigger snows to our north.  Northern stream dominant patterns.  

Sounds good for a New England ski trip.

[psuhoffman]

@North Balti ZenThe point you are making has merit... some on here make way way way too much about needing crazy cold in March to get snow.  Truth is we only need the surface to show crazy negative anomalies and only during the period of time when it is snowing.  At 850 normals still aren't that warm, and often because of the increased solar, it can be pretty warm at the surface even when the air is dry and 850 temps are cold and that 50 degree sunny day can easily be a 32 degree snowfall the next day when precipitation is added to the equation.  Additionally a one day cold anomaly caused by a bombing storm along the coast won't show up at range on any ensembles.  Timing differences and members that don't have the storm will wash that out.  So saying...the day 10 EPS only shows -3 temps so it can't snow... is wrong.

However, there are some caveats to what you are saying also.   Even with some kind of dynamic bombing system there would have to be some cold lurking nearby to work.  If there is some big pig ridge over the east and a system bombs it won't matter.  It would just be a big rainstorm.  So we would need to see some hints at a pattern that at least leaves the door open to that.  It might still feel pretty warm in late March with a marginal cool air-mass or if you are just south of the boundary...but there is just enough cold available to make it work if something bombs out in the right spot.   Also, a bomb is not the only way to get snow in late March.  Recently we have seen several examples of a boundary wave with anomalous cold in place work.  But for that to work we do need an anomalous cold airmass in place.  So while you are right that we CAN get snow late without an extreme cold regime... that doesn't mean rooting for it to be warm actually increases our chances of snow.  It totally eliminates the option of more typical wave along the cold boundary working out...and relegates our chances of snow to that super rare once every 20 years type super bomb scenario.  

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Sounds good for a New England ski trip.

lol I have several weekends coming up that could work... I scrapped going the last couple opportunities because it looked cold/dry up there and I am at a point where I am not going all the way up there for ice.  I either want it to warm up and get soft spring conditions or hit a powder weekend.  Unfortunately...it looks to stay cold up there through the entire month...so I either need to get lucky with a snowstorm timed up...or it might be a problem.  I could always push it all the way to early April if it comes to that.  

[WVclimo]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For instance these are my snowfall stats AFTER MARCH 15 the last 6 years

2018: 14.7"

2017: 3.1"

2016: 2.5"

2015: 5.5"

2014: 13.6"

2013: 6.8"

That is an average of 7.7" after March 15th the last 6 years.   

My yard has been on a post-March 15th roll as well the past several years.

2018- 15.0"

2017-   1.0"

2016-    T

2015-   4.0"

2014-   5.6"

2013-   5.1"

average is 5.1"

[North Balti Zen]

@psuhoffman  Part of this is climo dependent - you are perfectly happy with anomalous cold air masses and waves into late March up where you are because you can cash. That's why I made the joke about us lowlanders taking a bullet for you all with this set-up somewhere on this board in the last few days.  But anomalous cold and waves are not generally so awesome down this way later into march. More likely to be cold slop, and, candidly, I am super over cold slop.  I, of course, am aware that late season big snows still need deep cold around, my point, as you picked up on, was that said deep cold does NOT need to be entrenched for days and days and days.  You can get a clash of air masses and a deepening system and pay it off big, and, frankly, for down here in the lowlands, that's what I am wishing was around. So, no, I absolutely do not mind warmer weather in March, in part because that sometimes is a necessary ingredient for something special.  As it stands, we are facing weeks of cold that won't likely be cold enough to do anything my way but be unpleasant and wet.  I am not as jazzed about a sloppy inch of snow as many on here, especially in mid March. Such is life. 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

First of all DC has had snow after March 15 several times in the last 10 years, including LAST YEAR.   Furthermore, the people in this forum that live in the northwestern 1/3 of this region and have some elevation have an even better chance to see snow after March 15.  Its obviously not as likely as during January/February but its far from impossible.

For instance these are my snowfall stats AFTER MARCH 15 the last 6 years

2018: 14.7"

2017: 3.1"

2016: 2.5"

2015: 5.5"

2014: 13.6"

2013: 6.8"

That is an average of 7.7" after March 15th the last 6 years.   

And lastly... no one is "rooting" for anything, we are just analyzing the patter.  It looks like it is going to be cold after about March 17 for a while...  there is nothing we can do about that whether we WANT it to be cold/snowy or not.  I am not sure what your point was....  do you want us to just ignore it because its late March?

Bingo!

Mine for same time period, and I am a good bit south (although a 'bit' higher than DC in elevation at 1300')

2018:  12.9

2017:  T

2016:  1.5

2015:   T

2014:  5.2

2013:  8.8

Works out to about a 4.6 average, and right at an inch average after APRIL 1st.

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

lol I have several weekends coming up that could work... I scrapped going the last couple opportunities because it looked cold/dry up there and I am at a point where I am not going all the way up there for ice.  I either want it to warm up and get soft spring conditions or hit a powder weekend.  Unfortunately...it looks to stay cold up there through the entire month...so I either need to get lucky with a snowstorm timed up...or it might be a problem.  I could always push it all the way to early April if it comes to that.  

The GFS is looking pretty dry in the long range, but then again an OP run that far out may not be so reliable.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Really good +PNA showing up on GFS ensembles in the medium/long range.. I doubt it will verify like that (pattern is same as seasonal trend), Expect more AO-busting-higher. It's pretty much maxed out by the way, capping the short term El Nino potential. 

[Ji]

The day 11 analog package kind of supports my opinion that there is a "chance" and it is likely to be chilly BUT odds of a big snowstorm are low and the pattern favors minor events or to our north.  One decent snowstorm in our area shows up...1968 which was a 4-6" snowstorm NW of 95, 1-3" in the cities.  1993 still shows up so I guess there is always a chance....1984 was another decent analog.  But a lot of the rest were just chilly periods with some very minor snowfalls...1" or less and bigger snows to our north.  Northern stream dominant patterns.  

I think jb programmed something so 1993 always shows up

[North Balti Zen]

You know what else a genuine spring warmth period might help with? Thunderstorms.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Here's bad PDO/ENSO vs good PDO/enso (click to animate)

[psuhoffman]

Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Here's bad PDO/ENSO vs good PDO/enso

Thanks 

[EastCoast NPZ]

The good news is that in 4 months from now it will only be 2 months until Fall, and 1 month until all the Octoberfests and Pumpkin brews hit the shelves!

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The good news is that in 4 months from now it will only be 2 months until Fall, and 1 month until all the Octoberfests and Pumpkin brews hit the shelves!

Spring and summer are depressing for sure.  But time moves quickly.  We’ll get through it. 

[showmethesnow]

Overnights still show seasonal cold day 10 (may 18th) through the extended. Signal for a possible storm (coastal/off the coast) roughly around day 12 is still there on the EPS and has strengthened somewhat. GFS/GEFS/FV3 for the most part seem to be coming around to this possibility as well. Day 15/16 might be of interest as well as there are some indications on both the EPS/GEFS of a storm around that period of time as well.

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Overnights still show seasonal cold day 10 (may 18th) through the extended. Signal for a possible storm (coastal/off the coast) roughly around day 12 is still there on the EPS and has strengthened somewhat. GFS/GEFS/FV3 for the most part seem to be coming around to this possibility as well. Day 15/16 might be of interest as well as there are some indications on both the EPS/GEFS of a storm around that period of time as well.

The day 12 might have too much northern stream but the signal is there.  The day 15/16 thing has hints of a southern stream system undercutting with the northern steam diving into the northeast over top which in winter is a great setup but late March could be problematic on temps. Both worth watching though. 

[psuhoffman]

I posted my analogs for next winter in the other thread based on every possible enso state.  So many ways to fail!!!

We should probably look at the best analogs for every enso permutation just to cover our bases. 

 If....

Strong modoki nino then like 1992

weak modoki nino 1995

strong nino 1998

weak nino 1959

neutral 2002

weak Nina 2012

strong Nina 1989 

 that should cover it, just take your pick...

 

 

 

[winterymix]

Sunday, 03/17...scoots SE of us.  My hunch is that the tail end of winter will toy with us but it just could be time to run the snowblower until the gas tank is dry and put it away until next year.

[frd]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I posted my analogs for next winter in the other thread based on every possible enso state.  So many ways to fail!!!

We should probably look at the best analogs for every enso permutation just to cover our bases. 

 If....

Strong modoki nino then like 1992

weak modoki nino 1995

strong nino 1998

weak nino 1959

neutral 2002

weak Nina 2012

strong Nina 1989 

 that should cover it, just take your pick...

 

 

 

The Casino Royale of weather picks 

 

 

 

[Lowershoresadness]

PSU, please turn off the lights and lock the door when you leave. Thanks

Management

[frd]

Another Winter of Flatliners ................ the NAO was a real bummer 

That Scandi -NAO back in late November was a head fake, NAO  never tanked. Still feel that had the -AO tanked the NAO would have done as well,  that was on the table too a couple times.  Never happened as we all know. We are lucky some got snow at all. A Northern Plains and New Mexico winter.   

 

 

 

 

[Superstorm]

Another Winter of Flatliners ................ the NAO was a real bummer 
That Scandi -NAO back in late November was a head fake, NAO  never tanked. Still feel that had the -AO tanked the NAO would have done as well,  that was on the table too a couple times.  Never happened as we all know. We are lucky some got snow at all. A Northern Plains and New Mexico winter.   

 
 
 
 

A neutral NAO and a hostile PAC doesn’t work well for us.


.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The day 12 might have too much northern stream but the signal is there.  The day 15/16 thing has hints of a southern stream system undercutting with the northern steam diving into the northeast over top which in winter is a great setup but late March could be problematic on temps. Both worth watching though. 

Maybe, looking at the 500's one would think so. But the southern jet setup (Running off of OBX) and the shorter wave lengths now showing up possibly suggests otherwise.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

A neutral NAO and a hostile PAC doesn’t work well for us.
 

Many of the weather indicies that were forecasted to be in our favor this year did not show up as expected. 

Many seasonal models that hardly go with a -NAO like the uKmet had one , it was on the CFS, the JAMSTEC and the Euro

Pretty big fumble on the seasonal models. I think the AO and the NAO averaged positive for the D to F period. 

The red flag was the  Pac Jet coming right into the West Coast and breaking up any attempts at High pressure there. 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

Any 90s showing up in the LR yet? I hope so

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, nj2va said:

Any 90s showing up in the LR yet? I hope so

That's always my issue with a delayed start to spring/colder than normal March/April. We run the risk of shooting straight to summer temps and missing a decent spring when we get delayed...

[snowmagnet]

24 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

That's always my issue with a delayed start to spring/colder than normal March/April. We run the risk of shooting straight to summer temps and missing a decent spring when we get delayed...

This has been typical for a couple of years around here. We often go quickly from winter to summer and fall to winter. 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

That's always my issue with a delayed start to spring/colder than normal March/April. We run the risk of shooting straight to summer temps and missing a decent spring when we get delayed...

I would love a solid month with highs in the low 50s-low 60s beginning this week. Once we get towards mid April, the occasional 70 would be ok.