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The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand


stormtracker
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51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Posting/discussing GFS 384 hr panels for March 22, depicting yet another huge rainstorm, might be an indication that the last stand has fallen down, and will not be getting up.

I think there has been so much rain and snow in the US, plus snow to our North that when things warm up it will have the effect of diverting the Gulf Stream leading to a global Day After Tomorrow for the summer and next winter. Sorry, I be tripp'in.  But, damn, all this rain. Please stop !  

 

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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

JB says it's not over yet. His actual quote was " look out " around the 20th . I think he even made a vague reference to 1888. Lol. 

Actually was just going to make a comment about the period looking cold and stormy the 18th and beyond with right around the 20th looking somewhat primed. Not sure I would say 1888 primed though.

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23 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Thank you. Coming from you that means a lot. 

Thanks @showmethesnow. You truly are a great contribution to the forum and you have astute knowledge to the subject matter. I really do think you would've been an awesome met and your diagnostics of synoptic scale meteorology is some of the best of I've come across. Given my past two employments, I really don't have sufficient time to post more during the year. I'll chip in when there's an event in winter or something extraordinary in the other seasons, but my time is limited thanks to shift work. I appreciate the kind words. You, @psuhoffman, @Bob Chill and many others provide amazing insight on this forum and it's so beneficial to have for many to learn. I love meteorology a lot, but I have multiple passions I follow and partake, so weather for me is just part of the equation of my life. I do my work, then I try to take in my other activities I love. Y'all are an amazing group and I'm so glad I found this forum back in 2014. Been a crazy 5 years. 

Have a great one y'all. I'm gonna go enjoy my warmer temps, wind, and incoming dry line season :stun:

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually was just going to make a comment about the period looking cold and stormy the 18th and beyond with right around the 20th looking somewhat primed. Not sure I would say 1888 primed though.

I’ve been busy but yea after a warm up March 17 or so on looks cold again. Only issue I see is att the pattern looks northern stream dominant. In March with short wavelengths and added juice maybe that works but I sure would love to see some lower pressures to our south and the high pressure further north. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve been busy but yea after a warm up March 17 or so on looks cold again. Only issue I see is att the pattern looks northern stream dominant. In March with short wavelengths and added juice maybe that works but I sure would love to see some lower pressures to our south and the high pressure further north. 

Many of us would need a crazy good pattern by that time.  Super cold with flawless set up.  Tall order.  

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Many of us would need a crazy good pattern by that time.  Super cold with flawless set up.  Tall order.  

Like last year? And the year before? And 2 years before then? And the year before that year? 

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21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Like last year? And the year before? And 2 years before then? And the year before that year? 

I’m being short sighted.  I realize that.  But it’s tough to overcome my own perception about March especially after the 15th. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve been busy but yea after a warm up March 17 or so on looks cold again. Only issue I see is att the pattern looks northern stream dominant. In March with short wavelengths and added juice maybe that works but I sure would love to see some lower pressures to our south and the high pressure further north. 

I live in DC. Where do you live? Buffalo? After March 15 we’re planning trips to the golf course and pool season isn’t far off.

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21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I live in DC. Where do you live? Buffalo? After March 15 we’re planning trips to the golf course and pool season isn’t far off.

One more storm in mid March then i would like a dry warm stretch of about 6-8 months please

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For everyone chasing anomolous cold thinking we have to have it ahead of a major March storm, I don’t think that is necessarily correct. It sure wasn’t for the superstorm in 1993. In fact, perhaps people should be chasing warmth and then a deepening system on the heels of that warmth to get a big one. Just saying.

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In April 1987 in east Central Ohio I was a junior in HS and it was our spring break last week of March into early April.  It was the 70s all week. Gorgeous. Played BB on the asphalt at the local school all week.  That Friday we got 14 inches over 24 hours from a storm that dumped over 30 through eastern KY up into West Virginia and far western Virginia. April 2-5, 1987 timeframe.

Again, for the googly eyes reaction to my previous post, you do NOT need deep anomalous cold ahead of big March systems. In fact, I would submit that clash of systems and big deep air masses of warmth and cold to fuel a late season storm would be pretty damn helpful.

Start rooting for warmer weather, those of you who want snow and big snow this time of year, is what I am saying. Up is down. You all are going about this all wrong.

 

Showing my work:

https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm

I lived 18 miles east of Columbus at that time. Interstate 70 ended up shutdown for hundreds of miles running over to West Virginia. Helluva late season storm. All had melted by school on Monday. Didn't care. Awesome event.

Here apparently was a thread seven years ago on it on AmWx:

 

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10 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I live in DC. Where do you live? Buffalo? After March 15 we’re planning trips to the golf course and pool season isn’t far off.

First of all DC has had snow after March 15 several times in the last 10 years, including LAST YEAR.   Furthermore, the people in this forum that live in the northwestern 1/3 of this region and have some elevation have an even better chance to see snow after March 15.  Its obviously not as likely as during January/February but its far from impossible.

For instance these are my snowfall stats AFTER MARCH 15 the last 6 years

2018: 14.7"

2017: 3.1"

2016: 2.5"

2015: 5.5"

2014: 13.6"

2013: 6.8"

That is an average of 7.7" after March 15th the last 6 years.   

And lastly... no one is "rooting" for anything, we are just analyzing the patter.  It looks like it is going to be cold after about March 17 for a while...  there is nothing we can do about that whether we WANT it to be cold/snowy or not.  I am not sure what your point was....  do you want us to just ignore it because its late March?

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