stormtracker Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 Well, good news is the FV3 still has the storm. And the GFS has come around to the idea. Bad news is...and this will be a shocker, it's not a widespread 2 footer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 FV3 only gives me 15” this run. Pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: FV3 only gives me 15” this run. Pass. But is NE MD pummeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21, 2019 Author Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: FV3 only gives me 15” this run. Pass. I'm out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: But is NE MD pummeled? Destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Widespread precip signal again....Big storms, historic storms give a signal on the operational models 5 plus days out. So let’s see if it is still there in some fashion over the next week....details to be determined next weekend. So what if we are are at day 11 or so.....at least there is a chance at a big ending that is not purely weenie wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 It’s March. If it’s not at least 30” might as well not bother. Sun angle and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: FV3 only gives me 15” this run. Pass. Looks like a follow up system might be coming up behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, good news is the FV3 still has the storm. And the GFS has come around to the idea. Bad news is...and this will be a shocker, it's not a widespread 2 footer. It kinda looks like the upper air pattern basically wants to give us another decent to potentially large event. Not talking about anything discrete like the d10 unicorn but overall very similar to how we got snow in March 14&15. We had some remarkably cold events for March in both years. Anomalous cold is a requirement that late in our climo window (stating obvious). However (and I said this yesterday)... the type of progressive pattern really sucks for long range tracking. As long as ops occasionally show various fantasy storms and ensembles continue to shotgun events D8+ we're in the game. As good as you can ask but if anyone melts over the gfs or fv3 totally losing the d10 fantasy they need to find a new hobby STAT. I won't be commenting much unless something starts lining up in the mid or short range. I'm interested in early March like everyone else tho. Our area is one more event away from booking a top tier snowfall year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm out Have you ever really had to say that before though? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm out we suck at momentum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It kinda looks like the upper air pattern basically wants to give us another decent to potentially large event. Not talking about anything discrete like the d10 unicorn but overall very similar to how we got snow in March 14&15. We had some remarkably cold events for March in both years. Anomalous cold is a requirement that late in our climo window (stating obvious). However (and I said this yesterday)... the type of progressive pattern really sucks for long range tracking. As long as ops occasionally show various fantasy storms and ensembles continue to shotgun events D8+ we're in the game. As good as you can ask but if anyone melts over the gfs or fv3 totally losing the d10 fantasy they need to find a new hobby STAT. I won't be commenting much unless something starts lining up in the mid or short range. I'm interested in early March like everyone else tho. Our area is one more event away from booking a top tier snowfall year. i think we are all getting tired of 4-6 inch events. Anything less than a dymanic double digit widespread snowevent where we dont have to worry about a minor shift here and there would be a let down. 4-6 in March sucks.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: i think we are all getting tired of 4-6 inch events. Anything less than a dymanic double digit widespread snowevent where we dont have to worry about a minor shift here and there would be a let down. 4-6 in March sucks.. Hard to get tired of something I have only had one of. Unless its something like Murphy's Stout. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, Ji said: i think we are all getting tired of 4-6 inch events. Anything less than a dymanic double digit widespread snowevent where we dont have to worry about a minor shift here and there would be a let down. 4-6 in March sucks.. I am kind of with you here. Although those of us NW usually score snow in March regardless. But I am ready for a big one or torch at this point in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Anything less than 24” and I’m out. lol, tired of 4-6” 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Fv3 today put me at triple climo. I guess I can deal with double climo. But anything less and this winter is a D-. Can we please get one 10+ day look to happen before july? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It kinda looks like the upper air pattern basically wants to give us another decent to potentially large event. Not talking about anything discrete like the d10 unicorn but overall very similar to how we got snow in March 14&15. We had some remarkably cold events for March in both years. Anomalous cold is a requirement that late in our climo window (stating obvious). However (and I said this yesterday)... the type of progressive pattern really sucks for long range tracking. As long as ops occasionally show various fantasy storms and ensembles continue to shotgun events D8+ we're in the game. As good as you can ask but if anyone melts over the gfs or fv3 totally losing the d10 fantasy they need to find a new hobby STAT. I won't be commenting much unless something starts lining up in the mid or short range. I'm interested in early March like everyone else tho. Our area is one more event away from booking a top tier snowfall year. It's weird. I'm skeptical yet interested in this period more than the past promising long range periods. And not because of this FV3 blizzard nonsense. Everyone here should know by now that a 264 hour map isn't something to hang your hat on. 47 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Have you ever really had to say that before though? I see what you did there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2019 Author Share Posted February 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, Ji said: i think we are all getting tired of 4-6 inch events. Anything less than a dymanic double digit widespread snowevent where we dont have to worry about a minor shift here and there would be a let down. 4-6 in March sucks.. This is the one time where I'm actually with you on that. I'm not going to kick a 4 to 6 inch snowstorm outta bed, but I need a little more excitement from this point on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 You guys are great...most of the time 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well that certainly makes sense...now before this season I had put weak ninos in a "could go either way" category for bigger snow chances...but looking at those numbers, while they're not nina terrible, they're, ah you said...meh. Average, if you will! (And I wonder if the weak ones are like that BECAUASE they can more easily get pushed around by other factors like the MJO and such?). Will certainly keep that in mind from now on as well, lol So now...man it would be so sweet to get another shot at a moderate modoki next year with still having low solar--I hope that Webber dude is onto something! I think that’s exactly it. A moderate to strong modoki places strong forcing where we want it just east of the dateline. And it’s likely to win the battle for dominant control. Weak modoki have great variance. 1978 and 2015 were very good winters. And 1969 and 2005 certainly had periods with typical modoki nino characteristics. But there were some total crap years with almost no nino pacific response and because of variability all except 1978 failed to reach full potential. Even 78 would rank low among the moderate/strong list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 41 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Hard to get tired of something I have only had one of. Unless its something like Murphy's Stout. Moved on dogfish head American beauty. Teddy bears on a bottle, win win. Have you really only had one? I’ve had 2 4” storms and I thought my winters been bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 personally i wouldn't mind a 4-6" event here considering it would be my second best event of the winter. certainly would really like a 6+ but not gonna get my hopes up. if you do that you can't be disappointed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Moved on dogfish head American beauty. Teddy bears on a bottle, win win. Have you really only had one? I’ve had 2 4” storms and I thought my winters been bad That's pretty good stuff. 5.2 and 2.7 are the biggest events for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 For me it's been a lot of 2-4" events, so a 4-6" storm would be a nice upgrade. 4.2" was my highest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know nobody will shed tears for me, but I’ve gone an entire season without seeing more than 2.5” of snowfall in an event. Tired of 4-6” events after going two years without a warning level event? **** these guys That's incredible for up there. Really is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Gefs snowfall isn’t too high because it shotguns storms all over the east day 10-14 BUT there are more misses south than north. I like seeing that on gefs at this range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know nobody will shed tears for me, but I’ve gone an entire season without seeing more than 2.5” of snowfall in an event. Tired of 4-6” events after going two years without a warning level event? **** these guys If it’s not Scottish it’s CRAP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Euro weekly control says we just have to be REALLY patient... 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro weekly control says we just have to be REALLY patient... Sorry @C.A.P.E. you get screwed by that one too. how does it even manage to hook around you like that???? What did you do? 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It kinda looks like the upper air pattern basically wants to give us another decent to potentially large event. Not talking about anything discrete like the d10 unicorn but overall very similar to how we got snow in March 14&15. We had some remarkably cold events for March in both years. Anomalous cold is a requirement that late in our climo window (stating obvious). However (and I said this yesterday)... the type of progressive pattern really sucks for long range tracking. As long as ops occasionally show various fantasy storms and ensembles continue to shotgun events D8+ we're in the game. As good as you can ask but if anyone melts over the gfs or fv3 totally losing the d10 fantasy they need to find a new hobby STAT. I won't be commenting much unless something starts lining up in the mid or short range. I'm interested in early March like everyone else tho. Our area is one more event away from booking a top tier snowfall year. Amazing, isnt it. We've walked backwards...blindfolded...kicking, screaming and complaining into a climo + season. If it weren't for the huge preseason snow forecasts we would be already claiming victory. Instead we are complaining about 4-6" events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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